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Getting a bit ahead of myself here as I can’t yet find a book open on this, but after a bit of digging I found that Power Power themselves opened a market on last year’s renewal on September 18th. The prospect of this race kicking off the jumps season proper really does have me champing at the bit. Early indications on possible runners are a little misty as we haven’t really heard a great deal off the trainers at this stage of the year, but Nicky Henderson said in yesterday’s Racing Post that he intends on starting his progressive course and distance winner Rajdhani Express here. Other possible contenders are a little harder to fathom. Simonsig probably has too high a rating which is probably why Nicky plans on kicking things off with him in the Peterborough. Captain Conan didn’t appear to stay the trip at the festival so surely that’d put a line through him. David Pipe started his ‘star grey’ of last year Grand Crus in this but that all went a bit Pete Tong, would he be tempted to test Dynaste in this year’s equivalent off a high weight? A couple that could make the trip from the Emerald Isle are Alderwood and Baily Green, but aside from that unless I’m being pessimistic the potential for a vintage Paddy Power looks unlikely, unless of course connections of the big boys are willing to take their chances dragging anchors round, not an outcome I have great faith in in all honesty. Either way, the silver lining is definitely the return of the jumps, and I for one can’t bloody wait!
I’m not sure if he’ll be entered but i’m looking out got Marito. Fell in the Jewson when looking likely to at least place. That fall and subsequent heavy ground second could mean he’s on a handy mark at the start of the season. Hopefully placed in a handicap with a decent price instead of a 4 runner conditions race at Navan.
A name I didn’t mention was my old mate
Carlito Brigante
. Despite stinking form over the summer I stand by the fact that if the ground falls good over the Open Meeting, this lad, if he manages to get in, would be a worthy each way shout. I accept he wouldn’t be everyone’s cup of tea given how he’s been run in far lower quality races than this of late without any return and there is every chance he’s unfortunately simply fallen out of love with the game, but for me at the peak of his powers, in his right conditions and around his favourite racecourse he could go well.
I’ve been quoted 6/1 with a run about
Captain Conan
that might seem stingey to those who seek value,I on the other hand see that as Xmas,if he runs he goes off fav as there’s no ‘Simonsig’ to beat although I’d give his Jewson conqueror ‘Benefficient’ a shout if Tony Martin decides to send him over,even so ‘Captain Conan’has way more scope and his big frame is still unfurnished,I’d imagine this will be his early season target.
Hidden Cyclone being aimed at this according to the Shark:
Really keen on Captain Conan. Actually fancied him for the Arkle, but i suppose Henderson was already sorted in that sphere.
I wouldn’t count out
Lord Windermere
if he’s given an entry. Was consistent over this distance before taking the RSA. Has pace and stamina although may be a little high in the weights, but saying that i thought Al Ferof was carrying a lot of weight for a second season chaser and we all know what happened next…
I’ve been quoted 6/1 with a run about
Captain Conan
that might seem stingey to those who seek value,I on the other hand see that as Xmas,if he runs he goes off fav as there’s no ‘Simonsig’ to beat although I’d give his Jewson conqueror ‘Benefficient’ a shout if Tony Martin decides to send him over,even so ‘Captain Conan’has way more scope and his big frame is still unfurnished,I’d imagine this will be his early season target.
Paddy Power opened their market for this earlier this evening, 10/1 flying around for
Captain Conan
, 12s for
Beneffecient
.
Interesting to see what weight SIMONSIG gets. If he runs then he will be the one that I will be on. 11st 4lbs or less, and I will be happy.
Interesting to see what weight SIMONSIG gets. If he runs then he will be the one that I will be on. 11st 4lbs or less, and I will be happy.
Simonsig
injured mate.
I’m definitely one of those who like the look of Radjhani Express. Targetted for the race, and with him seemingly on the upgrade, he’s very difficult to ignore. Could go on to even bigger and better things as the season goes on. He looks like a horse to keep on side of, and I already fancy him to step outside of handicap company. I’ll stick my neck out and say, given time, he might just become a Topham horse first of all.
Coming back from injury and illness, Salut Flo
, and Katenko
are very interesting. Salut Flo looked to have a very good future ahead of him until injury intervened. His win at The Festival last year was very impressive, and if fit, then a serious player. Katenko being hit with Colic was a hammer blow for me last season, as I’m convined he’d have went close in The Gold Cup. Thankfully he lives to fight another day. Thought of as a soft ground horse, I’m still of the opinion he’s good enough to handle the drying ground which is forecast. Like Salut Flo, if back near his best then difficult to leave out. Hopefully a big season ahead of him.Slightly surprised to see Battle Group
entered as I thought he’d be looked after this season for Aintree. A very underrated horse, and another I’ll be following closely this season. The main reasons I’d swerve him in this, is the niggling doubt that they wouldn’t want to blow his handicap mark, and he might need further now, but still, a very interesting entry.Astracad
is a horse I’ve followed closely since his early years. Last season was a bit of a let down, but there was a lot more to like about his run in The Old Roan at Aintree. Based on that, he looks a pretty solid each way proposition at the moment.Like to keep an eye on JP’s runner, and Nadiya De La Vega
stands out at the moment. I wanted to see her stepped up in trip last year, but her run over 3 miles at The Festival was poor. This is probably more like it, and on the whole very reliable round here, and looks very much to me as if a big run is in the offing.JP’s Tap Night
is highly regarded, but I was hoping for more from him. Put in his place a couple of times last year, including by Radjhani Express, he’s got to raise his game. Looks the type to me, to pop up when least expected, I’d have to have a look at the jockey booking should he line up. Entered up at Carlisle on Monday, I’ll watch with interest should he run.I was never the biggest fan of Woolcombe Folly
, but I’m coming round to him now. Eyecatching run at Cheltenham last time, and with the 7lb claimer back on board this time hopefully, he’s one of the more realistic outsiders.Of the Irish contingent, Benefficient is an obvious contender should he come over, but that remains in doubt at the moment. Behind him at Cheltenham was Texas Jack
. Work to do on that showing, but seen him enough times in the past to think he could just surprise a few people here. Another one who’s jockey booking would be of interest.Impossible to have a bet at the moment, but if pushed, would side with each way bets on Katenko, Astracad, Nadiya De La Vega, or Woolcombe Folly. Definitely a wait and see job……if all the above line up, I’ll be leaving it well alone. Or Maybe not <!– s:? –>
<!– s:? –>It feels like Christmas when the Paddy Power Gold Cup arrives, it’s like a starting gun for the jumps proper.
It is absolutely my kind of race, and between now and then I’ll spend hours mulling over the stats, form and odds, trying to unearth a little gem.
A good summing up VTC, I’m definitely with you, it’s a wait and see job at this point. I’m sure if I wagered a few ante post at the moment, half would be down before the tapes went up on the day.
Nonetheless, I’ll mention a couple I like for different reasons. Anyone who’s had nothing better to do than read my previous posts (poor souls obviously at a loose end) will know I like to look for something with decent odds, but I can’t get away from the fact that if Dynaste runs, even under the big weight he will have to carry, he will be very hard to beat. Al Ferof did it last year off 11st 8lbs and going back a decade Cyfor Malta carried 11st 9lbs to success, so although there have been a few obviously kept under the radar and sloosing up off low weights (Imperial Commander off 10st 7lbs, what a steal)it is still possible to win carrying a big weight in this. The big question is, will he go for this or the Betfair Chase at haydock. I’m not risking it, but if he did run then 6/1 (13/2 with 888Sport) would be a big price.
VTC has already pointed out JP’s Nadiya De La Vega and Tap Night, 20 and 25/1 respectively for that pair would be value if they ran, definitely the type to be aimed at this.
VTC I’d throw another of his into the ring, Kid Cassidy is an absolute stand out at 33/1 with Betvictor. He was a decent enough 5th in this last year when joint fav. He has gone up 6lbs since then, but his good second in the Grand Annual at the festival warrants this. If I had an inkling JP was intending running him I would be having plenty of the 33s right now.
I expect him to run in the Haldon Chase at Exeter on Tuesday, and with Cue Card pushing the weights up, it means he sneaks in on 10st 2 lbs. The 12/1 with Bet365 is too big to ignore, so I’m taking that.
On another subject, has anyone received anything through about the ten to follow competition. I normally receive postal and e-mail entry forms, but have heard nothing, I haven’t even seen it being hyped on the RacingPost. On checking it is up and running, starting as normal on PP day, 16th November. Best of luck with that.
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