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Anyone got their bets on for this already?
I’ve had a little look and for my fiver’s worth I’ve gone for Knowhere, who I hope will do better than last year, but wonder if he needs bit more cut, and Bob Hall, trusting Jonjo will leave this one in as he goes on any ground and with dry weather forecast I think, it could turn faster side of good, and he seems reliable enough with his fencing.
Here’s hoping. I believe Bob Hall has a pound or two in hand of my other one on their last run.
so what are you doing, if any…?
I’m laying Abragante for a significant amount. When I saw him win on Saturday, I knew that he was one to take on next time (due to his performance being overrated as he’s a bridle horse and won’t find anything for pressure)
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I’ve only had a quick look at the market leaders. At the moment Knowhere looks like being my selection but I’ll wait til the 5-day decs tomorrow before having a proper look. There’s no money for Knowhere on BF though so maybe he’s not running.
I doubt whether Abragante will get into the race myself, NWRA, but if he did, I wouldn’t be looking to take him on in too much of a hurry.
He jumps well, goes on all types of ground, the strong pace of the PPGC will suit him, he would be in off a very competitive weight, and connections know exactly how to plot one up for the race. Also, I think the suggestion that he’s a bridle horse – something touted by the press as a reason to oppose him on Saturday – is wide of the mark. There are many more positives than negatives about Abragante, I suspect.
Though he’ll probably not get in, i’m surprised Abragante is such a short price for PP
Horse would probably need to be a stone or better at Chasing than hurdling to take PP and even though he won LTO with a bit to spare, i just can’t see him having that much in hand
unless it cuts up badly i’d probably take him on
Abragante seemed to find enough on Saturday, Timmy Murphy barely shook the reigns and he went a comfortable 3l clear after the last. The stable is also good at these quick turnarounds to make the most of penalties (he’ll certainly be well-in with 7lbs extra), so I’d say there’s a lot to like. I get the feeling he’ll be artificially short though should he run.
There’s 55 ahead of him at the moment. A 7lb penalty for last Saturday will only put him ahead of 6. I presume that the max field will be 24 (as at Festival) so that means he needs 25 to come out to get a run.
David Pipe has 4 of the 49 ahead so that leaves 21 required to come out.
There’s a lot of horses at big prices on BF which would lead me to believe that they aren’t going to run (eg Taranis, Watson Lake, Fair Along, Forget The Past are all way too big if they are planning to be declared) so I’d say he’ll scrape in at the bottom.
Though he’ll probably not get in, i’m surprised Abragante is such a short price for PP
Horse would probably need to be a stone or better at Chasing than hurdling to take PP and even though he won LTO with a bit to spare, i just can’t see him having that much in hand
unless it cuts up badly i’d probably take him on
Empty, I’ll have to disagree with you there. Can’t be bothered to go and check the RPR’s but the horses TF rating over hurdles is 143+. I don’t see how Abrigante would have to run to anywhere near 157 off a mark off 131 to win the Paddy Power.
The following figures are the Tf rating achieved by the winner in each race, and the BHA mark they defied.
Exotic Dancer ran to 145 off 139
Our Vic ran to 159 off 149
Celestial Gold ran to 156 off 136 (raced worked out extraordinarily well)
Fondmort ran to 160 off 151.Somewhere between 10lb and 14lb above his official rating should be enough to win the race I think. If Abragante can show the same level of form in the Paddy Power as he has already displayed over hurdles, I think he’s a good thing.
Abragante is justifiably short as he will only make the race if it cuts up ~ and if it cuts up he looks a very strong candidate. If it doesn’t cut up, he gets eliminated and stakes are refunded so the number of classy animals above him in the weights is largely moot.
Referring to Abragante as a bridle horse at this stage reminds me of comments made about Kauto Star last season, some people were pondering ‘but what will he find under pressure’. In other words, he’s being crabbed for winning so easily. Abragante’s no doubt a bit tricky, hence exaggerated waiting tactics and headgear but a strike rate of 6 from 11 on completed starts in handicaps suggests it doesn;t stop him getting his head in front.
Hello,
DJ , I don’t think Abirgante’s ride or performance was "exaggerated", the term should be attached to the competitors form it raced against.
To beat that crowd the tactics were adopted.However, I agree the way it won it should not be ignored. Probably will make mistakes like KS, but somehow reviewing it’s overall racing form, unlikely to be up to winning the PP.
Secondly, all NTD horses should be avoided, the way BATTLE CRY, [P,U.], and NO GUARANTEES ran today does not go well for an attack at Cheltenham.
regards,
doyley
I believe Battle Cry went wrong, didn’t he?
So you can hardly use him to judge the form of the stable.
Colin
Empty, I’ll have to disagree with you there
DJ 
Abragante’s hurdle RPR is 147, his Chase RPR is 133 and average for PP is about 162
[. If Abragante can show the same level of form in the Paddy Power as he has already displayed over hurdles, I think he’s a good thing.
Never mind hurdles form, his win on Saturday was one of those rare pit-of-the-stomach moments that bellowed the treacherous phrase ‘good thing’, with the only concern being he’s not run on top-of-the-ground, though some rain is forecast for later in the week.
Assuming he gets in the Paddy Power he’s likely to be punted in to a ludicrously short price and be a clear case of a ‘valueless’ underlay that only the daft or the brave will take on with ‘value’ overlays i.e not one to bet nor oppose.
Like all races I won’t study it until the overnights are with us, loads of chasing action to occupy the mind ‘twixt now and then.
I believe Battle Cry went wrong, didn’t he?
So you can hardly use him to judge the form of the stable.
Probably not, actually. It is also noted that whilst last week was NTD’s first blank one winner-wise (from 11 or 12 runners) for quite some time, a couple of them still went close; and that he’s only got four or five entered (never mind certain to run) before the Open meeting starts.
As such, I’m still just a little bit reluctant to concur that the tide is starting to turn against the Naunton handler, and will remain so until we’ve seen what happens at Cheltenham this week.
Slow to chide and swift to bless, me. Just like the hymn.
gc
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
Empty
As the Paddy Power is a handicap, I think we need to consider the RPR in relation to it’s handicap mark rather than the absolute figure it has run to which you would do if it was a conditions event.
The first figure is the RPR, the second the OR
Exotic Dancer 155 139
Our Vic 166 149
Celestial Gold 156 136
Fondmort165 150A quick basic average would suggest you need to able to run to a figure 17 lb higher than the official rating to win a Paddy Power.
Empty
As the Paddy Power is a handicap, I think we need to consider the RPR in relation to it’s handicap mark rather than the absolute figure it has run to which you would do if it was a conditions event.
The first figure is the RPR, the second the OR
Exotic Dancer 155 139
Our Vic 166 149
Celestial Gold 156 136
Fondmort165 150A quick basic average would suggest you need to able to run to a figure 17 lb higher than the official rating to win a Paddy Power.
So for Abragante to win off 131, it would suggest the race would need to be a poor renewal would it not???
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