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Usually take quite a definite view on this race, but find it a bit of a strange looking renewal this year.
Do Your Job was the call last year, and he blundered his chances away, before his season fizzled out. I thought he’d have a good year, but he certainly didn’t, and switched from Michael Scudamore to Lucinda Russell
I’m interested in him for The Paddy Power Gold Cup, but he’s hard to predict here, and half the price I was hoping for.
I’ll have a bet, but much smaller than I’d usually have on this race.
Do Your Job 9’s
I can’t let Ann Hamilton send another one here without having a go. That win last time out was so catching and I don’t think 5lbs is too harsh a rise for Tommy’s Oscar.
I don’t tend to back horses after long breaks, nevermind favourites coming off long breaks, but there’s no mistaking My Drogo looked very good beforehand. I think he could be a Gold Cup contender, so running here off 153 could be a gift.
Looks like the rain is gonna knock out an excellent value bet here in Hang In There. But MInella Drama is way too big.
Old Roan Chase Aintree 2.00 Good to Soft 20f
The most open Old Roan I can remember and one with its fair share of what-ifs. Hitman is consistent but doesn’t win often (4 from 18). After 687 days off, will My Drogo be at his best? Might his old injury flare again? Even at his best, will that be good enough? Looking back, he hasn’t achieved that much.
Will Tommy’s Oscar stay the trip? His best RPR is 162 at 2 miles on GS. No reason on breeding to doubt his stamina. And he won a Grade 2 in January. He ought to run well, and would be the most reliable bet among those at the front of the market, but I see no value in the 9/2 on offer.
Will Do Your Job’s jumping hold up? J Snowden, trainer of Datsalrighgino said last season that the horse wants 3 miles. If he is okay at this trip, will the ground suit? It’s currently good to soft with 6mm due to fall betwenn now and racing. Snowden’s horse is best on good (153 RPR) though he has run to 149 on soft.
Can Al Dancer maintain his recent consistency – relatively – having won 2 of his last 3 races? Sam Thomas looks to have revived the 10-y-old, and he’s back in the region of his best RPRs. He could go well, but looks about the right price.
How will Jetoile do away from Chepstow (3 from 3 there)? Will Courtland need farther? His top RPR of 150 was over 23f and on good ground. Courtland could outrun his odds back at this trip, but is probably the right price.
I think the only solid value here is with Minella Drama and potentially (ground dependant) Hang In There.
Minella Drama has won 7 from 17, and 4 from 11 over fences. His best RPR (161) was here at Aintree over this trip in April when 3rd in the Grade 1 Melling Chase to Pic D’Orhy. That was on soft. He’s run a 159 on good so he’s not reliant on the rain. He’s improving too;his last three ratings: 156 159 161. He’s been well placed by McCain, showing strong consistency – 22/211212/125142/43113 – an important factor as the value lies in EW. 365 Extra Each Way tab opens opportunities to bet to 6 places for which Minella Drama is 17/2. With the target of simply making a profit, that is the best bet. If you feel braver, you can have 16/1 to 3 places. McCain is in fair form place-wise, though it’s a week since he had a winner.Hang In There at 13/1 to 6 places (30/1 to 3 places) also looks value, but only if the ground dries up and that seems unlikley. He has run to 155 on good, but only 146 on soft. He’s 9 from 20 on good, 1 from 6 on soft and 0 from 3 on GS. In all he is 11 from 32 and 7 from 16 over fences. He looks to have a good rapport with his young 5lb claimer Joe Anderson who is 3 from 8 on him (three 2nds too). He’s another improver: 146 147 155 his last three runs. And trainer Lavelle has had 5 winners in the past 14 days. If the ground is reported more good than good to soft, I’d defiitely back him. If it turns soft I would not.
Good luck
JoeDrogo is the interesting runner , Hitman is a softie , Tommys Oscar is a solid chaser but below top class , I was hoping Do your job was going to be a chaser to follow after winning the Future Champions but last year was a no show , I’ll be playing My Drogo and like Peter will tickle him for the GC
“My Drogo looked very good beforehand. I think he could be a Gold Cup contender”
I thought he’d be more of a Ryanair type if he retains his ability. For this season anyway.
Nice to see My Drogo back out racing
hoping he can regain his ability and be none the worse for the long layoffBlackbeard to conquer the World
My Drogo wasn’t the only entry from Skelton, so it’s possible that they are happy with My Drogo. In that case, I think that 5-1 is a price worth taking.
If I’ve read too much into that, then Minella Drama is my cover bet at 14-1
It’s such a good renewal this year. I keep finding myself looking at Minella Drama
It’s inexcusable to have three in this really.
Looks a very interesting renewal. Very curious to see what level My Drogo can produce, but it is hard to back him after two years. I like Datsalrightgino here. In 2023 he showed good form behind Stage Star and Solo before winning the novice chase at Ayr. Very much on the up, but his mark isn’t that high yet.
Datsalrightgino 9/1
This happens far too often at this meeting. If they can’t guarantee “safe” jumping conditions then they either need to ensure the meeting takes place before the clocks go back or just sack the thing off.
“Fences in the home straight are not going to be jumped due to low sun.”
An age-old prob at a number of courses.
Why, oh why, cant they erect temporary screens at the end of the courses when the sun is likely to cause such a prob during race days? I mean it’s not like it’s a new prob is it?
Almost half the fences missed out and J’Etoile, who has made mistakes/not fluent in 3 of his last 4 races passes mine (who is a consistently good jumper these days) on the run in. A frustrating business!
This race used to be run later in the afternoon when it was more vulnerable to low sun. Now even starting at 2pm is not sufficient to avoid it.
Perhaps they will have to start the meeting at noon next year and make it the first race on the card.
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