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No thread for the big race of the weekend – so thought I’d start one.
Early quick look leads me to Just Lille the only doubt for me is over the trip:
Haydock – 3 runs, 2 wins, 1 second
Distance (1 1/2m) – 3 runs, 1 second, 1 third (1/1 over 10.5f)
Ground (good/good-firm) – 21 runs, 6 wins, 6 seconds, 1 third
Month (July) – 6 runs, 2 wins, 1 second
Grade (Class 2) – 2 runs, 1 win, 1 second (also 2nd in a Class 1)Ann Duffield’s in good form at the moment and the sharpener she gave Just Lille the other day up at Hamilton will put her in great shape for this race.
20/1 with Bet365 is too good to miss out on IMHO.
Anyone else any thoughts on the big one?
Mezzanini of Michael Bells looks good for an inform yard and they won the last at Chester on Saturday.
For an open handicap it looks ok with the top rated being 110 so cant wait to see the weights be processed.
I really like Camps Bay in this. Can’t understand where bet365 get 25/1 from. Have a look at Camps Bay’s reappearance run at Doncaster involving Dansili Dancer, Drill Sergeant, Falcativ and this horse. Camps Bay would have been second at worse with a clear run yet is more than twice the price of those 3 horses, 2 of whom are worse off at the weights from there.
It’s just a pity the trainer is garbage but even taking her into account, this horse should surely be more like 9/1 than 25’s.
A couple of the early prices for this race do look extremely generous.
Agree that Camps Bay may be the wrong price. I think David’s comment was based on his Doncaster run, but add to that his 3rd place in this race last year, off a 2lb higher mark, & the 25/1 does seem very big. It looks as though he’s had a one run prep for this as well. I’m thinking he’ll run well, but my instincts were saying maybe a place again.
The other horse I can’t believe the price of is Falcativ. I accept he finished behind a few of these (inc Camps Bay) in the Doncaster race, & probably he has to find a something on form…….but his trainer has an exceptional record in this race. I just can not comprehend that Falcativ will be allowed go off anywhere near 14/1 (Hills). Just on trainer/race stats alone.
They will be my two against the field at the moment.
Fair point re; Falcativ, he’d be fav had he not run at Doncaster where he pot uncharacteristically warm beforehand and pulled too hard. For those reasons I’d want to see him on the day before investing and don’t mind taking a bit shorter.
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Hatton Flight has done nothing but improve for the past 2 seasons, and with distance and going right up his street, must have a great shout.
Has the coffin box draw, which is the only downer, but is versatile enough for it not to be insurmountable.
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