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Im suprised there is no thread up already, I make it between 3 Passage of Time, Four Sins and Simply Perfect but they all have negatives.
Passage of Times negative for me is Richard Hughes, he is too cocky imo and deserves to be slated when it doesnt come off. Also she suffered a setback with her throat abcess and went on to win the musidora but that was quite a weak race.
Four Sins big question is will she act on the ground as her wins have been on Good and Gd to Fm. Her only disapointment was on soft but it was the Goffs Million race.
Simply Perfect is potentially imo the best filly in the race but she is a major doubt to stay but she is def worth a bet at 20’s on BF because if she stays she wins imo.
To be honest this is so open its difficult to tip one. Needless to say I won’t be backing anything.
Had the ground been fast then Four Sins would’ve interested me but now, don’t have a clue. I’d like to see one of Cecil’s pair win. Was really impressed with Light Shift at Chester, token selection I’ll go for her.
The major feature of the market has been the drift on Ed Dunlop’s filly. 10.5 I saw earlier which, on the surface, is absolutely huge.
I really fancied this one – and Beckett’s filly to place. But there won’t be a dry eye in the house if Henry Cecil wins the Oaks and that will be pleasure enough.
I ruled out Cherry Hinton, Dance of Light, Darrfonah, Kayah, Nell Gwyn and Sues Surprise on grounds of ability. With the going likely to be testing, anything that isn’t sure to stay also has to go, Dalvina isn’t sure to relish this test on the ground so I’ll discount her whilst I also am reluctant to but will rule of Simply Perfect. Can’t see Peeping Fawn staying either.
There should be little between All My Loving and Light Shift and though the former will be better on this more galloping track, I thought Light Shift beat her with something in hand at Chester and should be able to confirm the form.
Measured Tempo looks a poor price considering she has plenty to find on the book. Passage of Time, who tends to idle in front, Richard Hughes, Epsom and quotes of 2/1 scream danger. I wasn’t particularly taken with her effort in the Muisidora and think she should be opposed.
I like Four Sins. Oxx doesn’t confuse his geese with swans and there was plenty to like about this fillys win at Naas last time. She’s a straightforward ride, sure to be up with the pace, will benefit from the increased stamina and despite what connections say, her pedigree suggests she’ll go on the ground. Her Naas form is on a par with Dalvina’s Pretty Polly imo and not at all far behind Passage of Time and Simply Perfect.
(Edited by davidjohnson at 10:29 pm on May 31, 2007)
There should be little between All My Loving and Light Shift and though the former will be better on this more galloping track, I thought Light Shift beat her with something in hand at Chester and should be able to confirm the form.
I backed the Cecil filly on basis it would be on fast ground. But over 1m4f I would be surprised if the twice raced All My Loving (full sister to soft ground lovers Quarter Moon and Yesterday) could not reverse the form. Between her and Passage Of Time IMO.
Dalvina is my main fancy but I’m also on Darrfonah at very long odds because she is entirely unexposed at this trip and is expected to improve dramatically for it. Her five-length second to Finsceal Beo in the Boussac is decent form.
Darfonnah is one who I think will run a big race at huge odds. 3rd on her only run on Sft ground behind 2 fillies who both won a (virtual) Gr1 on their next start. Form this year has been poor but if you can blame that on the going (GF for 2 starts and Dirt for the other) then she has a big shout on her 2yo form.
To my surprise, my somewhat scattergun approach to ante-post betting has left me with three running for me this afternoon: Passage Of Time at 12/1, Measured Tempo 25/1 and All My Loving 25/1. I haven’t backed anything else, not one non-runner.
I therefore confidently predict victory for Simply Perfect.
(Edited by guskennedy at 9:18 am on June 1, 2007)
I like All My Loving. O’Brien’s horses have come along slowly this year, but for an inexpereinced horse, I thought she ran well at Chester, will be more at home over this trip (going by pedigree) and the ground should suit her better than some of the others.
I’ve had a small interest at 10.5.
Whether or not this will apply fully to All My Loving remains to be seen, but this stat with regards to her full sisters’ going preferences certainly makes for interesting reading:
Yesterday’s form on good/soft or softer ground: 01211225<br>Yesterday’s form on good or faster ground: 63024354
Quarter Moon’s form on good/soft or softer ground: 21222<br>Quarter Moon’s form on good or faster ground: 5360
interesting stats.
Soumillion must be a liability though, especially considering how he rode Visindar in last year’s Derby..
Split between Passage of time and four sins
Im going to have a small bet ew at huge prices on Dharforrah (or however you spell it) on the hope that the ground will bring it back to some decent form.
I have a feeling that one of OBriens will win it and its hard to see the how the sister to quarter moon and yesterday will be kept out of the business end. Cant see four sins liking this ground. An interesting race.
SHL
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