The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Nothing Gained 10

Home Forums Betting Chat – Bets & Tips Nothing Gained 10

Viewing 17 posts - 137 through 153 (of 154 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1686652
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7232

    Mine was very much like yours – all 3 of your takeaway points apply to me. I’ll still bet for the sake of it but managed to restrict myself to 50p or £1 ew for the ones I didn’t really fancy.
    I thought I’d have a swing at the handicaps before the weights, which was a fun exercise, but I only really found Quai de Bourbon as the plot horse that would be latched onto (and he didn’t win anyway).
    Other things for me to learn:
    1. Leave the bumper alone. Just leave it alone and put a token £1 on Patrick’s horse on the day
    2. Don’t back anything really ground dependent antepost
    3. Don’t do antepost doubles unless for tiny stakes. Had a lovely one on Imagine/ Night and Day- both NRs.
    3. I probably won’t get around to getting a betfair account to lay things off but if I do- if I have managed to back one that shortens- lay a bit off for a free bet. Especially if it’s a JP horse and it’s not getting hammered on the morning of the race
    4. Back de Bromhead horses before Henry starts winning. I fancied Arctic Bresil but just left the 25s available at final decs on Tuesday thinking nobody else would like him. They didn’t- till Rachel won the Supreme, everyone remembered how primed the yard is for the festival and he halved in price (OK this happened to save me money as I was annoyed at missing the price and put very small money on, and he was unplaced).
    5. Townend might pick the wrong one at the DRF but he’ll pick the right one at Cheltenham (except when they know the JP horse is the best then it doesn’t matter- see Tullyhill, Storm Heart).
    I should also have listened to the murmurings of “Might leave Hunters Yarn for a home campaign” after he won. There was nothing till Punchestown at that point- should’ve looked at last year’s festival run, put 2 and 2 together and realised that he doesn’t travel across water.

    #1686654
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7232

    Sickened for you that XC was off this year, Coko Beach would’ve had a right chance.

    #1686656
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7232

    “Brown Advisory
    Ballyburn 16’s”

    Nice. I think he’ll go there. Think Galopin only went Turners cos he was a 6yo.

    #1686675
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14942

    Yeah, I’m almost certain Coko would’ve won that. He’s at his peak this year, and can’t believe he’s only a 9yo. Hope they don’t fix that drainage lol

    I hope you’re right about Ballyburn. Fairly sure this is the last time I’ll ever get to bet him at 16’s for anything, so I’ve went for it. Goes without saying I’ll lay that stake back if I get the chance. Highlight of my week, and I want the same again. Made up with how good he’s turned out.

    Good to see your thoughts on that earlier post.

    Yeah, I’ve no interest in Bumpers at all, and a race I tend to put a line through.

    As for the Antepost doubles, I’d tend to agree with the stakes comment. If you do them, make it worth it. Be greedy lol

    My Betfair Account is key to my Antepost. I have to leave a fair amount in to cover the lays, as I’m laying off bets elsewhere, and it’s sometimes tempting to withdraw, but it pays its way. I’d recommend opening one, and take your time very slowly getting a feel of things. It took me a few years

    As far as the “bets for the sake of it go”, I’m more interested in the staking I done. I didn’t really fancy mine in The Boodles, Plate, and Kim Muir, and more annoyed at putting them up on TRF as losers, whereas what I bet in The Martin Pipe wasn’t really justifiable. Really hacked off with myself.

    You’re the same as me I’m sure with Mullins. Like to pick a few who are short of top drawer, but frequently come up at nice odds therefore. I have plenty like Hunters Yarn. They all tend to have their day

    #1686991
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14942

    Missed a couple today.

    Elvis Mail ran a decent enough race at huge odds, while got a very decent lay in running on Thecompanysargeant

    Remaining bets today

    Farceur Du Large
    Millers Bank 12’s
    Truckers Lodge

    #1687376
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14942

    After deciding to be a bit more sensible, I ditched Beauport at the last minute for the other pair. Beauport been a regular of mine, and I wasn’t far off losing the plot when he won. I’d planned to bet him at Ayr as well. Less than impressed. Deserved all I got though

    One bet today, and a rare Midnight crossover. Midnight Midge risky, on this seasons form, and more crucially the ground, but 20’s drew me in off the reduced mark.

    Tracks perfect, but ground isn’t, so definitely one I’ll try to claw stakes back on

    1500 Exeter – Midnight Midge 20’s

    #1687472
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14942

    As well as having a look at the past week, thought I’d highlight a few for the coming weeks………………

    Updated to include Any Second Now, and Millers Bank

    Any Second Now
    Seems strange to highlight a veteran like him, but very interesting, just how low his mark has gone, and he gets the Irish National entry I was hoping to see

    Digby
    Just a horse I like. Probably too low to get into Irish National (next year), but surely has races in him

    Flower of Scotland
    This was the season where I stepped back a bit from Sandy Thomson runners, but she surely has a chance in Scottish National.

    Hidden Heroics
    You’d have to be mad not to take notice of Skelton more than ever. I’ve always followed a few of his like Allmankind, Ajzzuri, Ch’Tibello, Faivoir, and Mohaayed, but whereas I used to swerve his staying chasers, I’ve really changed my tune. Bet this boy twice, and he’s flopped badly, but around Sandown in Bet365 Gold Cup, on better ground, I’d be very interested. This also applies Tó Ballygriffincottage

    Latitude
    Haven’t forgotten this boy. For a smaller yard, they do very well, and I’d love to see him head for The Freebooter Chase on National Day

    Man O Work
    In great form at start of season, with surely more to come. Get the feeling he’ll be entered in a few nice races coming up. I’d love to see him in Scottish Champion Hurdle, if he’s fit and well

    Millers Bank
    Absolutely strolled round Kempton on Saturday, and he’s surely being prepped for a pop at a decent target at Aintree

    Ontheropes
    My big hope for Fairyhouse. I’ve seen nothing too much to worry about so far, and I just loved his wee trot round in The Leinster National

    Panic Attack
    A mare that I really like, and think she still has races in her, around two and a half miles

    Read To Return
    He wouldn’t have won Kim Muir after the way the winner done it, but having ducked Uttoxeter, there must be a definite plan for him

    Sam Brown
    I just want to see him head to one of the big handicap chases on last day of Punchestown. I’ll have a decent bet if he does

    Samui
    As Greenasgrass mentioned, definitely one for the better ground, and I’m sticking with him.

    Sharjah
    Along with Onttheropes, my other big spring fancy. Convinced myself now that he’s Topham bound, and I’ll have a fair swing at him if he gets an entry.

    The Abbey
    Very nice run on unsuitable ground at Leopardstown, and surely has a couple of races in him

    The Big Doyen
    Assuming all well with him, of big interest for all the big Spring Festivals

    Three Card Brag
    Surprise absentee from Cheltenham. Maybe reading too much into that, but he has to be of interest now for Fairyhouse and Punchestown. Certainly has the potential for The Irish National, but he’ll have plenty of options

    Zanndabad
    Sensibly I suppose, swerved The Coral Cup, and one for better ground. Couple of races at Aintree could suit

    #1688017
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14942

    Quiet enough Saturday, and just the one bet in Fidux.

    First time in years I’ve not had a bet in The Lincoln, but having dodged a bullet Antepost with Empirestateofmind, I’ll just sit it out. I do like Chazzesmee and The Gatekeeper, but missed the price on both of them

    Fidux 7’s

    #1688609
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14942

    Happy with Fidux last week, and keeping it simple paid off.

    A bit different this weekend though, and had to really rein it in.

    Holly was first bet, but cashed out a couple of minutes later, with the prospect of so many bets. Aldo decided against Looking For Lynda. Still think he has a live chance, but the ground is a big question mark, and he’ll surely come again later in the season at decent odds.

    Hardest one to rule out was Read To Return. Obviously mentioned him a few times and think he’s miles ahead of his mark. However his short price, along with the presence of Neveradullmoment meant I had to swerve him. him. I think I’ve taken Neveradullmoment in sat comps more than any horse, so he was a big headache himself.

    Still ended up with five selections though, which is more than I want.

    Western Zara is a horse I’ve always liked, and she gave me a good run in The Kim Muir last year, while Zip was some price with so much in his favour.

    Got a bad feeling I’ll buckle with those left out, but I’ll see how I feel in morning

    Mares Handicap – Western Zara
    Rybo – Decimation 66’s EW4Pls
    Rybo – Samui 9’s

    #1688757
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14942

    Holly would’ve been a nice in running bet yesterday, and definitely one to follow next year. Just a few today, and Friends still catching my eye in The Honeysuckle Hurdle. Another couple I liked were Pax, and Champagne Admiral, but trying not to have too many

    Today’s selections………

    Went with Friends in The Honeysuckle

    Honeysuckle – Friends
    Sussex Hurdle – Brookie EW5Pls
    WillowWarm – Thecompanysargeant EW3Pls

    #1688847
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14942

    Brookie was poor yesterday, was fairly confident of a decent run too. Thecompanysargent was much better, and having easily got 50’s, got a nice return in running for second time in a row. Like this horse a lot.

    Reluctant to have another in The Irish National, as my Antepost on Ontheropes was a bigger one. Not concerned with my bet on Digby, as he was a token gesture, given he was always against the weather, but I’d like that Ontheropes cash back.

    Decided to go with Churchstonewarrior. Not sure of his full ability, and I think he’s still a wee bit unexposed. Early unseat on seasonal debut, but although pulled up in The Savills (bet him), he was hardly given a hard time either. His weight on this ground is an obvious concern, but I think he’s potentially decent, and happy to go with him EW. Hoping to beat 40’s

    Any Second Now 40’s
    Churchstonewarrior EW6Pls

    #1689720
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14942

    Apart from the odd Antepost, first bet since Irish National

    So close with Any Second Now, but was a proper bet, so was pleased to get decent lay in, and got both the stakes for him and Ontheropes back, which was really important.

    Cautious start today……

    Bowl – Bravemansgame 10’s
    Aintree Hurdle – Luccia 12’s
    Hunter – Annamix 6’s
    Red Rum – Sans Bruit 12’s

    #1689869
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14942

    Really enjoyed that win with Sans Bruit. I’d like to follow next year, and I could see him going to Sanduwn on last day, but cat out the bag with him a bit

    Sharjah a bigger Antepost loser today, so I’d be looking to first of all get my cash back in The Topham. Empire Steel the sentimental selection, but the Mullins pair look good

    Manifesto – Giovinco 8’s
    Melling – Conflated 14’s
    Topham – Classic Getaway 20’s
    Topham – Embittered 66’s EW 6Pls
    Topham – James Du Berlais 10’s
    Sefton – Kyntara 10’s
    Alder Hey – El Jefe 40’s
    Alder Hey – Zeeband 9’s

    #1690089
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14942

    Such a bloody shame about Giovinco and Pikar. Nothing else to say, other than I’m relieved that Kyntara got up

    Absolutely delighted today with El Jefe, one of the coolest rides I’ve seen for a long time. Unreal.

    Money back in running with Conflated too, and laid stake only on James Du Berlais.

    Biggest day of the year then for Racing, and despite the changes (which I agree with), it’s still a buzz before it

    All covered in Big Races, and plan at moment is to stick with just the one now in the William Hill Hurdle, and Freebooter. Still seriously considering Staffordshire Knot

    Wm Hill Hurdle – Flouer 50’s EW7Pls
    Mersey – Esprit Du Potier 33’s EW
    Freebooter – Falco Blitz 25’s EW4Pls
    Liverpool Hurdle – Dashel Drasher 44’s/33’s EW4Pl
    Liverpool Hurdle – Sire Du Berlais 9’s
    Grand National – Galvin 50’s (Laid Stake)
    Grand National – Janidil 150’s EW7Pls/280’s
    Grand National – Roi Mage 80’s EW5pls NRNB
    Grand National – Stattler 70’s
    Grand National – The Goffer 66’s EW5Pls

    #1690118
    Sungold
    Participant
    • Total Posts 84

    Vtc – It is awful and tragic to see a horse end its days in that way. Nothing makes it any better.

    What a fabulous long range strike with El Jefe! Awesome. I thought Conflated was going to make it at one point, but Jonbon has huge reserves.

    Good luck today.

    #1690123
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14942

    Thanks mate, it was a mad ride, loved it. Best of luck to you too

    #1691153
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14942

    After a brutal Cheltenham, Aintree was much better. The least I’ve ever bet on The National, and took a few quid back in running on The National. Scaling back seems the way to go, as the race not grabbing me the same, but no doubt something will grab me next year.

    Hoping Ayr can be kind. I think it’s a cracking line up for the big one, and went with three outsiders.

    If Ontheropes was close to his best, then he’d win this. That’s a very big if. Market tells its own story, and I’m pinning everything on a quiet run at Naas. I’m more confident of Secret Reprieve making the seven. Broken Halo is a strange one. Bryony Frost riding with confidence, and the horse has a big one in him, so he’s added.

    I managed to get my Sharjah stake back in running in The Topham, and though still a losing race, it was a relief. Hoping he can do it today.

    Benson is a bit of a daft one. As I’ve said before, pulled away from Sandy Thomson this year, and the horse has been terrible last twice, but on a going day, could sneak a place.

    Couple on the flat with Racingbreaks Ryder, and Midnight Fire

    Sharjah 10’s
    Benson 80’s EW5Pls
    Racingbreaks Ryder 22’s EW7Pls
    Broken Halo 50’s
    Ontheropes EW7, 130’s
    Secret Reprieve 66’s EW7Pls
    Midnight Fire 25’s EW6Pls

Viewing 17 posts - 137 through 153 (of 154 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.