- This topic has 27 replies, 13 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 11 months ago by
.
- Posts
Surprised nobody has started a Thread on this great race so here goes.
Firstly I think we are looking for a well handicapped horse that likes softish conditions and stays! Now the staying part is vital with Overturn in the field he will make it a truly run race but surely the weight will stop him this time.
There are numerous ‘very classy’ candidates here but the majority will not stay the 2m at a truly run pace in these conditions.
KF has put up a very interesting runner in Deauville Flyer [/color:2yfu3jgs]at 14s who he rightly states is very well handicapped.
I liked Montaff at 25s but he should not be able to beat DF at the revised weights.
The other horse that catches my eye is from the Mr Gosden yard, INVESTISSEMENT[/color:2yfu3jgs] ran a lovely race LTO on his 1st run for the yard, hailing from the very capable and astute Andre Fabre stable it looks like he has improved for the stepping up in distance.
The 2 that i have supported are Deauville Flyer EW and Investissement win. Be Lucky
I think Overturn could prove hard to beat if he’s able to get out in front and dictate the pace. He won this and the Chester Cup with a bit to spare imo and with a conditional taking 5lbs off the rise in the weights may not be enough to stop him.
Looking like softish ground will Overturn even run?
Everything is teed up perfectly for
Activate
and 8/1 is more than fair
D.Flyer has a pot in him for sure but not sure about 2m on the ground and if turning up High Office makes most appeal at a price…perfect trends fit (as is Hawk Mountain).
THM: Here’s a brave statement for you, Overturn wont finish in the top 3, reason for me is simple. The apprentice riding may be taking 5lbs off BUT he is a jump jockey and there is a massive difference between setting the pace over 2 1/2miles in an apprentice hurdle to setting the pace in this event. The lad is talented but has never ridden a winner on the flat!!
Overturn is a superb horse and i’ve backed him 3 out of his last 4 runs but i cannot have him on Saturday, good luck though with your bet.
Great spectactle,been to every plate since 1964 apart from the one that was abandoned and seen some great winners of the race over the years,and I have seen some good things get turned over,I just live 5mins from the track and my idea of the winner providing it gets a single figure draw is Fox Hunt, looks to me it will be even better over 2 miles he will get a good toe into the race off Overturn only other possibility is Mount Athos needs decent going it rained heavily through the night but if it comes up soft you will need a low draw anyway and with a horse that stays not many get home on soft going, but Fox Hunt at around 12/1 is a decent bet.
I’m a bit unsure as to how important the draw actually is with this race – a 2m race should give the horses time to overcome any bias, IMHO.
Horse I really like for this is Hunterview, providing he gets in. He’s got a nice weight, will make the trip, and his style is just right for this.
Another one for the hurdlers in the bumper!
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
The one I fancy is
Also I’ve always liked Mount Athos, but Tacticianis effectively 10lb better off for a 1/2 length beating at York last year and has always looked like he’d like this trip.
"GDC" wrote: THM: Here’s a brave statement for you, Overturn wont finish in the top 3, reason for me is simple. The apprentice riding may be taking 5lbs off BUT he is a jump jockey and there is a massive difference between setting the pace over 2 1/2miles in an apprentice hurdle to setting the pace in this event. The lad is talented but has never ridden a winner on the flat!!
Overturn is a superb horse and i’ve backed him 3 out of his last 4 runs but i cannot have him on Saturday, good luck though with your bet.
Brave statement indeed, haven’t backed him yet though. Rather wait to see what the draw/ground is
The Northumberland Plate draw is crucial because its just over 2 furlongs to the bend and you need to get a decent position because in fields of 15 or more data shows;
draw 1 to 5 = 9 wins
draw 6-10 = 5 wins
draw 11-15 = 1 win
draw 16+ = 6 wins (with highest draw winning on 4 occasions)
3yo’s and older horses 6 & 7 years old feature 5 times in high draw.
The highest draw winners were on Good to Firm, Firm and Heavy going.The theory about the weight 8-11 and below is another that is not absolute as 7 above 9-0 stone have won. The only two 5yo winners were high weights.
Hurdlers have won 7 races since 1988 (23 races) a near 30% strike rate
Overturn followed Tamarpour and Unleash who both won 3 hurdle races on trot in current year prior to Northumberland Plate. Mirjan had also won 3 hurdle races in 2000 and had won a total of 7 hurdles prior to his 33/1 surprise win 2004.Around 13 past winners came from Royal Ascot, varying races from handicaps to Gold Cup.
Cover Up and Zero Watt both won at Ascot and were beaten in photo finishes in Plate and only Windsor Castle (3yo) won at Ascot (Vase) so have the feeling that the penalty may stop back to back wins for 4yo’s and upwards. Juniper Girl, Far Cry and Tarmapour all 2nd at Ascot support that theory.Also the theory about runs in valuable races worked against the fav Deauville Flyer last year. The Plate is the most valuable handicap race in Britain so the winner needs to have tested the water in similar company and the value of previous race runs shows that. The 3yo’s and lightly raced 4yo’s do not always fit this category.
Toldo was the only winner (data from 1988) that started his career over 5f. Two more winners started as sprinters over 6f but the bulk of 20 winner started from 7f to 12fur.
The amount of rain we are receiving in Catterick i will be amazed if the Plate is run on the currently advertised gd/soft ground. It will be soft (heavy in places) at best!!
Dig out those soft ground horses ladies and gents
Happy that Deauville Flyer got in but unhappy being drawn 16!!
The fav has a nice draw in 2 but will he run? He was pulled at Ascot due to the soft conditions and it could well be softer on Saturday!
Taking the draw and ground into consideration i have backed MONTAFF EW at 25s today from the Mich Channon yard, has some top class form and will love whatever the ground is.
One of my favourite horses, sammy, but she ran poorly last time, did she not? Deserves a big win after coming so close at the end of last season. Haven’t looked at final card yet [just got back from work]. Very warm here in the midlands, is it still wet oop north? Doesn’t drain very well at Newcastle, does it, being moorland.
I’ve been following Choc A Block, a very well bred horse in Said Bin Suroor’s stable, and basically he seems to have been underperforming for a long time; never has done much. Yet I see it’s, I think, second-top rated or something like that in the Racing Post. I think he’s drawn ten, so just at the outer limit of the low draws, which have produced a good ratio of winners.
Still, after losing interest in Overturn, I’ve been coming back to him. On the basis of his NH handicap mark, he still seems very well handicapped, not even taking into account the claimer’s allowance. And I think a strong stayer who can lead from the front has an advantage, particularly in the soft.
My Ascot betting was a disaster. On the last day, I couldn’t afford to bet on the first two winners on the card, which had looked good.
- Total Posts 17716
Grimes
Though Overturn has won on soft ground, I’d be fairly certain he’s better on faster, and I wouldn’t go near him with that weight – if the going forecasts are to be believed.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.