December 14, 2018 at 14:15 #1389254
Am sure there are more non-triers in lower grades (prize money means it’s even more/very difficult for connections to make a profit without a betting coup). But also, reason why so many horses are in that grade is their temperaments, being difficult to predict/inconsistent and need finnessing to win.
Vast majority of horses I see on these TRF pages described as non-triers can either be easily explained… Or at least have a possible/pobable excuse. “Possible/probable excuse” as in – Yes, it might (and only “might”) be a non-trier, but there are also possible/probable excuses and therefore can not be prosecuted as a non-trier.value is everythingDecember 14, 2018 at 19:47 #1389293
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This thread is going on and on Ginge LOL
One of my bugbears are that people talk out of their pockets and make excuses when they back a loser but some people myself included generally call non triers when they have seen them and not when they have backed them!!
I do try to analyse why a horse hasn’t performed to form and sometimes they are not allowed to perform to form!! that is when they are non triers IMO. Whether that be by luck or design is open to interpretation.
I am certain people on here and out and about in racing circles will have differing opinions but I am convinced this happens more often than most of us think.December 14, 2018 at 23:38 #1389325
I too have called out non-triers when I’ve seen them, Raymo. On here and on the racecourse, been to the stewards on the day and asked them to hold an enquirey (without success). It’s right to do so when seeing non-triers.value is everythingDecember 17, 2018 at 13:12 #1389632
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I back plenty of non-triers. One was Cracker Factory on Saturday. I’m not saying there was anything untoward, just that the horse couldn’t be bothered on the day for some reason. Probably the weather conditionsDecember 17, 2018 at 16:55 #1389639
If there was nothing “untoward” then Cracker Factory is not a non-trier, Homer.
Cracker Factory had been on the go since April. ie Racing throughout the Summer and Autumn, that’s eight races with on average one run a month. There’s bound to come a time when any horse needs a break.
Cracker Factory had already made one notable error and struggling home straight, before a bad mistake 3 out – knocking it out of the ground – finished him off. It’s only good jockeyship not to give the horse a hard race once no chance of of being in the money.value is everythingDecember 19, 2018 at 14:45 #1389724
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” Are you sure that’s not just blaming others for you choosing the wrong horses to back, droffats?
If non-triers are as widespread as you claim, then how do you explain other punters making a good profit from purely studying form and backing value selections (ie without any inside info)? ”
Come on, Ginge. That can’t be a serious question.
As an assertion, it’s ” There can’t be that many non-triers because punters make money in horse racing ” and it’s sieve like in construction.
There are masses of them, some for ” legitimate ” reasons like schooling, gaining experience, learning a horse to settle etc and then there’s the gambling aspect where a horse’s handicap mark is protected or dropped…and you obviously know all that.
The successful punters learn about these horses or read the form correctly through experience and then anticipate when the chips are going down, or they concentrate on strike rates / trainer form / jockey bookings etc which show a profit over time.December 19, 2018 at 18:34 #1389737
There is no such thing as “legitimate” non-triers, Mark.
The things you describe are not non-triers.
Schooling: If a horse had a bad fall last time out and lost confidence or isn’t yet a good jumper. It would be legitimate (next time out) for the jockey’s primary objective is getting the horse jumping safely/not taking any chances. However – if by doing this the jockey still has a chance of winning – then the jockey will try and win the race. Indeed, with a horse that’s lost its confidence it can be argued the best chance of winning the race is precisely that… getting the horse jumping safely in rhythm.
When a horse needs to Gain Experience, riding the horse in amongst the pack is a legitimate tactic; giving the horse experience of racing amongst other horses. Jockey may also delay his challenge in order not to be in front too soon (minimising the chance of idling). However, if the horse is still in a position of winning then the jockey will try and win.
If the horse failed to settle last time out, then it is legitimate for the jockey’s primary objective is “learning a horse to settle“. Indeed, if that were not the primary objective (not settling) the horse would stand much less chance of winning anyway.
…And running horses in races where a mark is likely to be protected or even dropped – is not against the rules. It is not against the rules to run in a race where conditions do not suit the horse… as long as the jockey tries to win the race given those particular conditions.
So – yes, trainers use races for “schooling, gaining experience, learning a horse to settle” and run in races where the handicap mark is unlikely to go up (“protected”) and/or more likely to be “dropped”. But the vast majority of these are still “trying”. ie In the unlikely event of the horse proving good enough in those conditions the jockey will still try and win.value is everythingApril 11, 2019 at 19:52 #1417064
Do you have a formula for spotting non-triers on the flat?
Preparing to hit the ground running on the flat, need help to eliminate non triers.April 11, 2019 at 20:36 #1417069
Yes, my formula is… bet in races where there are no non-triers.value is everythingApril 11, 2019 at 22:00 #1417077
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Woolfie, you previously informed us that before every race all the jockeys get together in the weighing-room to sneakily decide which one’s going to win (love it when they do that in The Stewards Cup, btw).
So I have to ask: What’s the point anyway?
MikeApril 11, 2019 at 22:08 #1417078
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I tend to either back non-triers or winners.April 13, 2019 at 20:09 #1417428
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Oh look, another full moon…June 16, 2019 at 08:46 #1445480
I’ve never known there to be so many short priced losers and it’s only June. Are they non-triers or are they beaten by rivals who having not tried in previous races have been given the go ahead to go and win? If a favourite is prominent in the opening stage of a race, lay it in running, they never win. The market is no indication that confidence is drifting, non triers are backed right up to the off. Keep winning.June 16, 2019 at 10:00 #1445485
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Only just spotted this thread.
Whether a horse is trying or not, as with so much in life, is down to economics and business decisions.
If you want to be sure you have backed a trier, only bet in Group races.
At this level prize-money and potential stud values render the betting irrelevant to connections and such races are dominated by the Uber wealthy owners and successful trainers.
At the other end of the scale you have Class 5 and 6 handicaps and the low-grade maidens that feed them for qualification purposes.
Struggling trainers, journeymen jockeys, and occasionally owners out to make a quick buck by landing a gamble.
Trainers at this level cannot live off training fee margins and prize money percentages alone and some of the owners can barely afford to keep their horse in training.
If the trainer wants any quality of life at all economically, he has to land a gamble or two during the year to keep himself and his operation ticking over and his owners sweet.
So you get the quiet runs out the back in Maidens, the runs over the wrong trip/going, the wide passage, the slow start, the steadily-falling handicap mark until….today’s the day.
The money goes down, the horse gets a ride, and they hope and pray someone else doesn’t touch them off so they can all eat for the next six months.
If they win, or go close, up goes the handicap mark and the quiet runs resume, maybe for up to a year, until its time for another go.
In all seriousness, given prize money levels at the bottom end, how else do people think trainers stay in business?
I wouldn’t even call them crooks or cheats – they are desperate people with no other option to stay in operation.
This is UK horse racing – at the bottom end – if you want to be sure you’re on a trier, stick to the likes of Royal Ascot.June 16, 2019 at 18:19 #1445522
You clearly understand the true nature of racing today. 90% of racing is for the benefit of low grade trainers, down at heel owners and jockeys of easy virtue. The top 10% are the elite who do not concern themselves with betting, agree entirely.
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