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Some great posts on here, but a few of us are missing the point of ante post betting. You get on early to get the value, yes you don’t fully know the ground conditions, however in essence you do since apart from the obvious exceptions (Earth Summit, Red Marauder) it’s always good, or at the very least good to soft. Hence if you pick horses that go on good / good to soft, you’re sorted NB: – in the unlikely event that it’s soft, you can lay them anway, hence no risk!
I had a small "saver" on One Cool Cookie after being on course to watch it in the Becher in November and hence my monies are gone, but even though I’m gutted for connections, to use a pun, from a punting point of view, that’s the way the cookie crumbles.
If you do not have any big odds about your fancies at this stage, your chances of making signicant returns from the race are greatly reduced and in addition, it saves me having to take wads of cash to the course on April 9.
I wouldn’t swap my 50s on Oscar Time and 40s on State of Play, Arbor Supreme and The Midnight Club for anything. Vive le ante post.
I’m very happy with my four ante-post bets (a first for me, having never been brave enough to chance backing a NR before). So long as Nedzers Return pleases Gordon Elliott in a gallop this week, I should have my whole "squad" running for me too.
Nedzer’s Return
– I was sure he was being aimed at the race as far back as two years ago, winning some valuable summer races and getting a sighter in the Aintree Foxhunters’ last year. The ground should be good for him and he jumped well enough until coming down in the Foxhunters’ to give me optimism.
Becauseicouldn’tsee
– Unexposed, stays…hopefully tuned up after his setback.
The Midnight Club
– I was very happy to get on this one before his recent win an price collapse. I like how he has a bit of speed (good enough to place in the Jewson) and "stayed-on" "ran on well" etc always feature in his comments in running.
Roll Along
– speculative?…yes! You can ignore his comeback runs (not sharp first time out, then fair enough effort on unsuitable ground at Ascot). So there is some hope of the ability still remaining. I loved the way he stayed on in Alberta’s Run’s RSA a few years ago, so stamina should be assured. He looks likely to have his vital quick ground too. I would be more optimistic if this was 1/2 years ago for Roll Along but if anything is going to ‘Mon Mome’ us at a massive price, this is one of the likelier types.
I’ll be posting some general factfiles on participants, human and equine, this week in the hope of offering some insight:
ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) b g Moscow Society (USA) – Miss Perky (IRE) (Creative Plan (USA))9-10-03 Form: 135/4F5324151/1330/37U2U-0P2 Owner: J P McManus, Trainer: Willie Mullins IRE Breeder: Thomas O’Brien
Arbor Supreme hails from the family of high-class chasers Celtic Ryde, Noddy´s Ryde and Teeton Mill, and made a successful start to his career when an eight-length winner of a Leopardstown bumper in January, 2007. He was then sold to J P McManus, but did not win either of his next two starts over hurdles.
Sent over fences at the start of the 2007/08 season, he got off the mark at the seventh attempt in that sphere in a beginners’ chase at Naas in March and ended the campaign by defeating seasoned handicappers in a three mile, six furlong handicap chase at Punchestown in April.
The 2008/09 season began with another victory in a staying handicap chase at Fairyhouse but he was winless for the rest of the campaign, including when 14th behind Niche Market in the Irish Grand National. At the Punchestown Festival in May, 2009, he finished third to Ambobo in a valuable handicap chase.
Arbor Supreme was mid-division in the 2010 John Smith’s Grand National when unseating Paul Townend at The Chair. This season, he was well beaten at Naas first time and then was pulled up in the Welsh National before finishing a length second to The Midnight Club in the Grade Two Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse on February 23. He is one of six remaining entries for Willie Mullins. Race Record: Starts: 24; Wins: 4 ; 2nd: 3; 3rd: 5; Win & Place PrizeMoney: £92,775
John Smith’s Grand National* entry, Our Monty has been trading at around 200/1 on Betfair these past few days – now 120/1 – and that is way too big in my opinion.
A maximum of 40 runners will line up for the big race next Saturday and Our Monty is number 48 on the list so he needs a few withdrawals to get a run. One horse, Our Monty’s stablemate, Ballytrim has already been taken out of the race (lame) and, sadly, One Cool Cookie – alongside Our Monty in the weights with 10stone 3lbs – suffered a fatal accident on the gallops.
Frankie Figg has since been announced a non-runner (he was on the same weight as Our Monty)
So Our Monty needs five horses above him in the weights to come out at the next declaration stage – noon today – to be sure of a run. Doubtless there will be some defectors and, possibly, between today and Saturday; the key will be whether those withdrawn are above him in the weights. Four reserves will be chosen too.
The good news is that trainer Willie Mullins is reported today as saying the horse will be left in till the final stages to face the ballot for a place in the line-up. If Our Monty is unsuccessful in that ballot, bets on him are void and his supporters get their money returned.
Mr Mullins said in his Racing Post column last weekend that he believed Our Monty had been overlooked and that the horse was very well. If he makes it to the post on Saturday, it will be Our Monty’s first run since 15th November 2009 when he won the Paddy Power.com Cork Grand National. Here’s his form comment for that victory:
Settled in mid-division on inner, mistake 6 out, smooth progress to track leader entering straight, switched left to stands’ side and disputed 3 out, led next, cruised clear before last, very easily (op 2/1 tchd 11/4
The quote from jockey David Casey after that race was:
“I’d have no problem riding him over any trip. He could make an Irish National horse.”
Casey will ride Arbor Supreme but Katie Walsh has been booked for Our Monty (see K Walsh factfile at foot)
Our Monty’s next outing after Cork was to be in the Coral Welsh Grand National. He was as short as 8/1 for that before being withdrawn.
I don’t know why the horse has been off so long – I suspect a tendon injury has kept him out. However, Mr Mullins said last week that the horse is very well and they simply ran out of time in trying to find a prep race for him this season.
Our Monty’s full form panel appears at the foot of this article. He has won and been placed on the Flat. Over jumps he’s won at 2miles 1furlong and at 3m 4f. He has victories on good to firm ground and on heavy. Such versatility can be the sign of a very decent horse.
Our Monty joined the Mullins yard in late 2009 and is unbeaten in three runs since, winning each easily. He’s not that big but jumps well. He fell first time out over fences but in four subsequent ‘chasing runs he has made just one mistake. The trends boys will tell you that a horse with just five steeplechasing runs is one to avoid due to the experience needed in the National, and there’s plenty evidence to support that theory. But I never let trends put me off if the value is there.
If Our Monty does not get into the National, watch out for him wherever he appears next. He has an entry in Friday’s John Smith’s Topham Chase and has also been entered for the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on April 23rd.
If you can get on at odds above 25/1 for the National with a guarantee of money back if he is balloted out, you will have had value. Taking the current huge prices available on the betting exchanges (Our Monty can be backed place only at what, in my opinion, should be his win price, around 24/1) is a no-brainer.
Good luck
Joe
http://wp.me/p1o7dN-cwMs Katie Walsh Born: December 18, 1984 County Kildare Background: Daughter of trainer and broadcaster Ted Walsh and sister of Ruby. Honed her riding skills three-day eventing First Winner: Hannon, Gowran Park, October 10, 2003. Rides principally for Willie Mullins. Cheltenham Festival Wins (2): Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle (2010 Thousand Stars); 140th Year Of The National Hunt Chase (2010 Poker De Sivola) Wins In Britain (2004/05-2009/10): 0; 0; 0; 1; 0; 2;
65 acceptors at 5-day decs. Synchonised and Notre Pere both taken out. Waiting to see if there are any more.
This race looks a difficult one but the "who will go off favourite" market is more analysable as there are fewer contenders. I can’t see it being anything apart from Midnight Club 11/8 or What a Friend 100/30. Good ground might favour WAF over MC but this is probably taken into account already.
I would be inclined to back both. 2 pts MC and one pt WAF.
last 4 to make it into GN:
Surface To Air (GB)
That’s Rhythm (FR)
Arbor Supreme (IRE)
Our Monty
Full decs on my blog:
Joe,
Happy days mate, both yours getting a run. I am particularly happy that Arbor Supreme got in as i have backed him (win only though) as he is a dodgy jumper!
I am hoping Golden Kite also gets in after the 48 hr decs on Thursday, will go very well at a nice price and have backed him EW at 80s and 66s.
RP reporting that Roll Along has been lame and only 50-50 for the race. His defection would ensure Royal Rosa and Our Monty were both in, with Always Waining, Golden Kite and Skippers Brig as reserves (to be ranked) plus one from Faasel, Belon Gale and Le Beau Bai.
Shame for Roll Along connections if he doesn’t make it but happy days if Golden Kite gets a run, there are generally 2 to 3 defectors in the week building up to race day.
Suprised Peter Bowen is chancing Always Waining over this distance, despite his course form! Cannot see him finishing at all
Royal Rosa should get priority for 2 reasons…
1. Came second in the Becher
2. He’s 12 and so only has one more chance of winning whereas Our Monty has another 3 years in him to win a NationalELIMINATION – If elimination is necessary, the balloting of horses set to carry the same weight will be decided upon by using the horses’ current handicap mark at the time of elimination. In the event of two or more horses on the same weight having an identical current handicap rating, their elimination sequence will be determined by random ballot.
Given that, looking at the horses around the cut-off mark their allocated weight and current rating are as below. Unless there are any defectors, by my reckoning Royal Rosa will be first reserve, followed by Skippers Brig, Golden Kite and Always Waining.
If Golden Kite squeezes in he’s no 200/1 shot imho
Arbor Supreme (IRE) 10-3 143
Our Monty (IRE) 10-3 135
Royal Rosa (FR) 10-3 129Skippers Brig (IRE) 10-2 138
Golden Kite (IRE) 10-2 135
Always Waining (IRE) 10-2 134Belon Gale (IRE) 10-1 137
Faasel (IRE) 10-1 137
Merigo (FR) 10-1 137
Putney Bridge 10-1 137
Le Beau Bai (FR) 10-1 135Silvoir – the RP is suggesting that Phil Smith will have the final say as to what gets in and what doesn’t. They are implying that it will be up to him to decide what gets ranked ahead of what.
Now I appreciate that he does this already in his capacity as official handicapper but can you clarify the situation here please.
Silvoir – the RP is suggesting that Phil Smith will have the final say as to what gets in and what doesn’t. They are implying that it will be up to him to decide what gets ranked ahead of what.
Now I appreciate that he does this already in his capacity as official handicapper but can you clarify the situation here please.
That’s purely in relation to the inital handicapping of the race. Once the handicap marks have been allotted, elimination is as per the extract from the Racing Calendar that I reproduced above.
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