Nigel Taylor’s Formcast 78 Spot Horse

[billion]

elcartero has fired up my dormant interest in the Daily Mail’s Formcast.

As said elsewhere I had previously been a big fan of Mr Taylor’s ratings but found they have tended to lose form and always thought he may be on holiday, sick leave or whatever prevents a person from going to work and so I do think it fair to claim inconsistency has been a problem.

Is it a fair question to ask “How have you applied these ratings?”

Back in the day . . . I again think it a reasonable observation to note he did favour horses with a recent run and even today his daily “Special Bet” is often chosen when getting out on the track fairly quickly.

So I will make an offering to get this one under way to follow the spot horse when running again within 7 days I cannot remember if the selection did best having won LTO or placed.

It did work in the past and very much so during the Flat season and so I ask myself why did I stop working this system and can only recall doing so because of the in and out of the form. elcartero has suggested a stake reduction during such periods but I question how many losers before recognising Mr Taylor is away from his desk? Or maybe a cross referal with an alternative rating.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Let’s see what happens today (Monday April 12) with the following selections. All are based on top rating, in a smallish field, having run within 4 weeks and placed 1.2.3 LTO plus of course being at a reasonable available price i.e. no odds on.

Folkestone 3.30 Hill of Miller 7 decl. 3LTO 4 days 3/1

Sedgefield 3.40 Dr Valentine 12 decl. 1LTO 17 days 7/2

Windsor 3.50 Lusivious 11 decl. 1LTO 8 days 100/30

Windsor 4.20 Master Lightfoot 11 decl. 1LTO 8 days 100/30

WON 9/2

All prices were available and taken from Odds Checker

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Same rules apply for today’s test selections – Tuesday April 13

Exeter 3.10 TRIGGER THE LIGHT

Pontefract 3.50 BOLD VENTURE

Yarmouth 4.00 SILVER LINNET

Yarmouth 4.30 RAPTOR

SIR LOUIS Yarmouth 3.30 is also of interest but early price was too short. It lost after drifting to 15/8

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Wednesday April 14

Cheltenham 2.10 MONETRY FUND 1 LTO 9 days, 8 decl.
early price 15/8

Beverley 5.30 SIR PITT 1 LTO 14 days, 5 decl.
early price 2/1 LOST

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Thursday April 15

With only one winner from eight selections the signals are not too good but again with a small adjustment things may improve.

Cheltenham 2.10 CAPTAIN CHRIS 6/4

Ripon 5.25 LA CAPRIOSA 5/2

Kempton 6.10 CALYPSO STAR 9/4

Kempton 9.10 MARKHESA 3/1 LOST

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Friday April 16

Newbury 2.40 ELNAWIN 4/1

Thirsk 4.45 HIGHLAND WARRIOR 6/4

Uttoxeter 4.50 MOSTLY BOB 1/1 Won 10/11

Billy's Outback Shack

[Dolus]

Hi

Billion

I don’t want to put a damper on things but systems using ratings have been around since the year dot, (well at least since ratings started to be published.)

I use ratings myself as they have been described as a short cut to the form book, (Let someone else do the work). It is hard to come up with new angles that might be new or original and hopefully lead to sustained profits.

The problem I find with ratings is:-

1) I never see a newspaper proclaiming how their particular brand of ratings went through the card or picked the winner of the big-un or that 50/1 shot that no one else considered.

2) No one seems to provide records of how their ratings have performed. Adrian Massey being a notable exception.

3) What I consider the biggest problems:-

(a) Not knowing exactly what the numbers represent if anything.

(b) What variables are used to calculate them, so adding my own becomes difficult as I might include something already taken into account.

[mal1964]

HI Billion ,
Your picks are interesting today as 2 of them coincide with my system selections , Highland Warrior and Mostley Bob .
If they stay fave , which they should i would expect them to rump home .
I do agree that sometimes you can have an idea which needs a little help or input , you just can not seem to find the missing something that is usually jumping out at you. I have placed lots of ideas on forums which im sure could of been taken further but unfortunatley havnt .
Whilst i am diddering away can i put farward a system a friend of mine uses and tells me he gets lots of winners . Back fave’s that didnt place last time out , not sure as to how this should be profitable as im not sure if they are each way or not.
Good Luck
Mal

[billion]

Good evening chaps,

I agree 100% with all you say

DOLUS

and although I have very little to add other than the aim is winkle out the poor and enhance the good, just the same as with favourites.

It is

how to

which proves the problem. Both the top rated and the favourite are thought to be the better of the horses racing, for whatever reason(s) and from that angle alone they should be a good starting point but where one goes from there is the 64 dollar question, as they say.

Highland Warrior almost made it a double

mal1964

but you were pretty much "on the money" and I hope you made a few bob.

Unplaced favourites, now there is a thought, if nothing else they could be at better prices!

Billy's Outback Shack

[MrE]

Hi Billion….. I’ve only just popped back on here to say hello to a few old friends, but I had a quick furkle around the forum to see what was happening….. it does appear that the "Systems" section is not as vibrant as it used to be…. and thats a great pity because there is no better way to get that discipline that everyone needs to survive at this game….. as I said, I may or may not stay around, but for what its worth, all this has been done before, possibly with other ratings, but nonetheless, it is a common starting point for a lot of systems…..
You will be hard pushed to breath life into a forum that has no nucleus, it has to have a strong presence/system to regenerate some interest, and as one of the oldies, perhaps I can offer a helping hand…. just to kick start this off….. I hope that you have no objection….
Using the criteria that you have so far…. just add a couple more filters….. remove any race that are sellers and/or apprentice races, including conditional jockeys and amateurs…. and then just concentrate your efforts in the lower distance races…. I used to favour 7f or LESS on the Flat and a maximum distance of 2m 5f over the jumps…. I think that you’ll find that those filters will make a great deal of difference….
I would also NOT disregard the PLACE bet on these selections… you’ll find that a lot of them get placed at around the 1.80 mark, and if, like me, you bet 1pt Win and 3pts Place, you’ll find that a second or third place will return you 5.40pts for your place bet when the whole bet has only cost you 4pts…. so that equates to a 30% ROI on what your assuming is a losing bet….. I hope this helps Billion, and perhaps gives you further food for thought…..

MrE

[billion]

Hi there

MrE

It is good to hear from you and thank you for your input which I can assure you will not be disregarded but I think this time I shall "play" off forum.

It is good to have your input and am aware of all your earlier contributions here from when I trawled through all the earlier postings looking for inspiration and perhaps you will hang around some more.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Hello again

MrE

,

Having just run through your suggestions again may I clarify your filter suggestions to the perhaps not so original thoughts.

Formcast 78 – Top rated

Favourite (forecast or otherwise) or not?

1.2.3 (placed) LTO, within 4 weeks

Ignore the poorer races i.e. sellers,amatuer and any horse with a gentleman or condition rider.

I have been looking at smaller fields circa 12 max. are you suggesting this should be applied or ignored?

Sprint races on the Flat up to and incl. 7 furlongs.

N. Hunt max. didtance 2m 5f.

Staking.

This is interesting (well I think so). Are you suggesting a minimum 1.8 to place?

Also 1.8 suggests the exchanges, only recently I looked at the bookies prices to place and thought them very poor

value

, how I hate the "V" word, it can mean so many different things to different folks.

Again, I thank you for your interest and input.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Back for a 3rd time

MrE

looking at possible choices for today, your clarification would be most appreciated.

Newbury 3.05 Lady of the desert

197 days

! 1.36 place.

Newbury 3.40 Arcano

237 days

! 1.67 place.

Thirsk 3.00 She’s in the money 13 days 1LTO 1.76 place

Thirsk 4.10 Esuvia 13 days 1LTO 1.56 place

Thirsk 5.45 Frequency 10 days 3LTO 1.33 place (Maiden??)

Doncaster 5.40 Jarrow

31 days

??? 1LTO

N Hunt: –

Ayr 2.15 French Opera 29 days 2LTO 1.44 place

Ayr 3.55 Riptide 21 days 1LTO

Bangor 3.10 Tot of the knar 21 days 3LTO 1.68 place

All prices were taken from betfair and are of course subject to change, however I have not checked win prices at this point of time.

Billy's Outback Shack

[elcartero]

Thread developing nicely after a slow start…just a few thoughts to set the cat amongst the pigeons…

Not too keen on filters as I believe the ratings and betting forecast compilers have taken many of those factors into account, however I would set an upper limit of 10 runners.

Handicaps only (no apprentices/conditionals/amateurs/ladies/sellers/nurseries etc).

Ignore second top rated selections (77) at your peril. I like having two selections running to win and with the advent of ‘Best Odds Guaranteed’ one will often drift and oblige at a ‘working man’s price’.

Worth spending a few minutes each day after racing marking off the results in the Mail to discover where Formcast is hitting the target but as we are on the cusp of the seasons it is a difficult time for any compiler to be at his most accurate.

Just my twopenny’s worth to hopefully extend the debate.

Powered by Linux

[billion]

I would like to raise a couple of points and hope all concerned will oblige with their answers. As

DOLUS

said it is hard to bring some new viewpoints to the table, maybe because his thoughts of not knowing what the numbers represent more or less concurs with

elcartero

‘s thinking regarding adding filters, as he rightly says both odds and rating compilers should have taken most factors into consideration.

Again, I find it most interesting that

MrE

and

elcartero

like to have two bets in the race:-

MrE

with his 25/75 win and place.

elcartero

chooses top rated 78 and second rated 77.

Merit for each I am sure but without running a sequence I prefer at this point not to make any judgement although I do have a sneaky preference as I suppose most folk will have and of course it comes down to ones own choice of style.

However please let me ask

elcartero

how do you make your assessment regarding the 77 horse. I have today gone through all 6 cards and with the rules so far set was unable to find a matching pair where there is only one 77 horse, in fact several in some races, how do you choose or split them?

So far: –

Exclude poor races and inexperienced riders

.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Pompete]

Hi Billon, good thread this.

I do have one query regarding the elimination of Amateur, Conditions & Lady Rider races from the system. In my experience the best horses in the race tended to win these races as apposed to Handicaps and other types of races, so it may be worth just keeping a separate list of these races to see how things fare.

Re: the ratings themselves I personally wouldn’t buy a Daily Mail to wipe my ass on, let alone read so have never come across them – but good luck Billon.

[billion]

I do agree with you

Pompete

regarding the Daily Mail or Daily Depression as I call it but it may well be 50p well spent if we can find a profitable system from it’s pages.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Author]

Posts