- This topic has 85 replies, 29 voices, and was last updated 18 years ago by
.
- Posts
I couldn’t disagree with him more- and neither could Topspeed and all of the Post pundits- I look forward to taking his money in March!
Surely most sensible people find an opinion based on what they see, not the other way around? I found the argument based on the final 2m of the 2m4 novice hurdle particularly entertaining.
The archive is brilliant -so many wrong predictions in the one place.This time last year he was advising Detroit City at 10/1 to win the next 3 champion hurdles.
Sizing Europe would be my biggest ever winner by a long way but at the same time there is a lot that can go wrong and you need a certain amount of luck on the day.Would you really want to be laying him -effectively backing a 4/11 winner-wouldn’t be my idea of a long term sustainable strategy.Surely most sensible people find an opinion based on what they see, not the other way around? I found the argument based on the final 2m of the 2m4 novice hurdle particularly entertaining.
Do you have data to debunk his sectional analysis Friggo?
I’m not questioning his stopclock, I’m questioning why a 2m4 novice hurdle should determine the outcome of the Champion Hurdle.
And furthermore (granted I haven’t read all of his reviews) but he doesn’t exactly go out of his way to reinforce any of his zany takes on time analysis. So surely it should be Nick Mordin you’re asking for more from instead of me.
Reading the archive debunks a lot of his theories.Of course he gets it right the odd time but a lot of his stuff is laughable.
I’m not questioning his stopclock, I’m questioning why a 2m4 novice hurdle should determine the outcome of the Champion Hurdle.
And furthermore (granted I haven’t read all of his reviews) but he doesn’t exactly go out of his way to reinforce any of his zany takes on time analysis. So surely it should be Nick Mordin you’re asking for more from instead of me.
Ok Friggo, my mistake – i thought you had some sectional data mate
There’s an analogy between Mordin’s writing and graphic descriptions of a serial killer’s handiwork. You don’t really want to go there but a morbid curiosity draws you in….
The point Mordin repeatedly makes himself look a fool on is that he will routinely call horses who have won easily, but haven’t run a fast time, "slow".
They are not slow, they are just horses that are yet to prove that they can run a fast time. If Sizing Europe comes unstuck when they go fast, that will be a different matter, but for now all you can say is that he was super impressive in what wasn’t a particularly strongly run race.The only valid point he makes is about Sizing Europe jumping big at his hurdles. It is possible that this will prove to me more of a problem on faster ground and with a horse like Osana pinging his hurdles at a fast pace from the front. That said, I still think SE deserves to be a strong favourite for the race at this stage.
The man has already broken the 1st rule of thumb an totally ignored the fact that in one race they were going hell for leather from the 3rd last with only a neck separating the the first2 at the line, whereas Sizing Europe was barely out of a canter…You do not try and compare two races run totally differnetly and if you do, you can convince your self of anything, if you want to believe it
If Hardy and Co gone faster he would have gone faster and still beat them pointless IMO. The one thing that will suit him best at Cheltenham is that he is supposidly a better horse the faster they go. He apparently has a huge stride and is not suited by a slow pace at all. If that is to be believed and we have just witnessed what he can do with a slow pace, God knows what we are about to see at Cheltenham in a fast run race……….so what he is really saying is this could be a wonder horse and he fancies it more than we do but he just doesn’t know it……probably never backed it before the race and it’s himself he’s trying to convince
Whilst it was a great performance from Sizing Europe, does Sublimity now represent great value at 5/1 – 11/2? If he was as big as a bull in the Bula, what has he lost since his CH last year?
Add in Sizing Europe has performed best with slower ground conditions, and his tendency to jump like a chaser and I think there has been a slight overreaction.
I still think Blythe Knight has as good a chance as any. Very open, and I very much disagree with anyone who believes yesterday is one race closed for Cheltenham.
If Sublimity is in the same shape on the day of the champion hurdle as he was last year then I cant see anything beating him.
I think there has been a big over reaction to Sizing Europes win in the AIG impressive as it was. He didnt seem able to run in a truly straight line and the way he jumped was not that of a champion hurdle winner. Im not saying I would want to be a layer (though I may well be depending how short he is on the day) but I wouldnt want to back him for the race at a short price.
I’ve developed a fair rule of thumb when comparing novice hurdles with races like the AIG Champion Hurdle. The results I’ve obtained suggest that if the early pace is slow in a novice hurdle a true Grade 1 horse will still come home in faster time however fast they themselves go early.
Is complete twaddle.
It should not be forgotten that Mordin was utterly dismissive of sectional times in Britain until very recently. He is now like a born-again Christian on the subject.
If there’s no one else really writing about sectional analysis, i suppose you can get away with writing twaddle
Whilst it was a great performance from Sizing Europe, does Sublimity now represent great value at 5/1 – 11/2? If he was as big as a bull in the Bula, what has he lost since his CH last year?
Add in Sizing Europe has performed best with slower ground conditions, and his tendency to jump like a chaser and I think there has been a slight overreaction.
I still think Blythe Knight has as good a chance as any. Very open, and I very much disagree with anyone who believes yesterday is one race closed for Cheltenham.
Your too dependent on too many things at once Sal. First the champion Hurdle would need to be a worse or as bad a race than it was last year for Sublimity to be concerned in the finish. He found nothing after hitting the front and you saw the best he is. By that I mean had anything else been there with him in a race to the line I reckon he would have found nothing more.
You also have to hope that Sizing Europe jockey is totally wrong when he said the horse need a faster pace and will be better for it. He was never out of a canter for 90% of the race and lost next to no ground at all with his jumping except for one hurdle on the far side which was probably about 1 length.
You would also need the ground to be very near to good at Cheltnham to see the best of Blythe Knight and he would have to run the best race of his life to be concerned in the finish. John Quinn is under no illusions about the horse and knows that as much as anyone and for personal reasons there is no one would be happier than me if he won. Realistically speaking he needs to improve one helluva lot. Anyway if he runs in The Kingwell against Osana that question may be answered then.
You say you think Sublimity is good value because Sizing Europe’s best form is on soft ground. It may come as a surprise to you but Sublimities only form over hurdles is on soft or heavy. You have to go back along way to his flat races to find form for him on fast ground. Sizing Europe on the other hand won on good to (good to firm) in Ireland and put up a class performance doing it. With his huge stride and good ground if anything he will be a better horse but wont mind soft either.
But good luck to you but I would start looking for other reasons to back the horse than the ones you have posted
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.