April 10, 2018 at 21:03 #1349692
Hi Titus, apologies for the late response – thank you for all your hard work, and it’s good to see some figures/analysis against the results.April 10, 2018 at 21:08 #1349693
Hi Titus, apologies for the late response – thank you for all your hard work. I’m going to have a read through it now, and look forward to your Aintree editionJune 11, 2018 at 22:45 #1356640
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Here is the Punchestown update (a little late!):
556 runners; 540 individual horses (16 ran twice, including one horse that had fallen on the first run). 201 sires were represented (a larger n than at the other festivals). Nonetheless, the runners were dominated by a narrow range of sire lines. Of the 556 unique runners, 335 (58%) are direct descendants of Northern Dancer, with 35% of the total runners from the Sadler’s Wells line. 47% of the runners (~ half of the entire Punchestown field) descend from Sadler’s Wells or Danzig line sires.
26 individual sires had winners. But, unlike the other festivals, Punchestown had more sires with multiple winners (5 in total). 2 sires had 3 winners a piece (Flemensfirth , Great Pretender). A further 3 sires had 2 winners (Fame and Glory, King’s Theatre and Shantou).
21 sires had a single winner but, whereas 6 of these came from their only runner, some high profile (big books) stallions had just one winner from a large number of runners. Some big books stallions with a large number of runners had no winners (> 20 runners: Beneficial, Presenting; > 10 Getaway). Flemensfirth’s 3 winners came from 21 runners. Great Pretender, by contrast, had just 4 runners, 3 of whom won – including two G1s.
As at other festivals, the Sadler’s Wells and Danzig sire lines performed well, supplying 15 and 6 winners respectively ( 56% of the winners). But, once again, other sire lines, with much lower numerical representation, performed well. Notable here are Nasrullah (especially Red God and Mill Reef) and Ribot (Flemensfirth, Shantou). The Djebel line is also represented amongst the winners, from extremely small numbers. As before, a headline conclusion is that diversity is no barrier to racecourse success.
As noteworthy is the under-performance at Punchestown of other sire lines. Monsun’s sons stand out here. Although with identical numerical representation to Ribot’s line, and with 10 sires with runners (c.f. 4), this line produced not a single winner.November 9, 2018 at 13:47 #1380025
I wonder if anyone can help, I am looking for statistics if anyone has them, the question I have is it better to breed from a mare, that has previous National Hunt form, even though it may be poorish, or take a chance on a mare that is super bred, but never raced in her career? The statistics I suppose what I am looking for is how many national Hunt winners have come from previously raced mares Vs unraced mares ??November 9, 2018 at 19:46 #1380062
I’m not sure about statistics, but in Ireland it’s not unusual for a well bred NH mare not to race, due to the risk of injury. This is probably less true now than, say, 15-20 years ago, because they can pick up black type without jumping an obstacle these days (don’t get me started), but it’s no reflection on her ability if she us unraced (she may not even be broken). Are you actually looking at two mares, or is it a hypothetical question?November 10, 2018 at 10:40 #1380159
Hi Louise, yes looking at a couple for this season coming, one mare won 8 times over a mile on the flat but has plenty of stamina in her page, rated 90 the other a lovely bred mare by Kalanisi and has a page to die for but never raced, just wondered if anyone had the statisticsNovember 10, 2018 at 14:48 #1380212
I’m all excited on your behalf! Sorry, can’t help you with numbers. Are they equally nice individuals?November 11, 2018 at 11:03 #1380282
Hi Louise, yes they are both smashing mares, good temperaments and really fill the eye, decisions decisionsNovember 11, 2018 at 20:18 #1380343
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Can I ask the sire’s name of the other mare ?November 12, 2018 at 20:56 #1380407
Best of luck with your choice – let us know what you decide. I’d say go for bothNovember 12, 2018 at 20:57 #1380408
Best of luck with your choice – let us know what you decide.
Sorry about duplicate post – gremlinsNovember 13, 2018 at 10:30 #1380426
Hi Louise and Mark, yes I will let you know which I choose, I won’t reveal the other mares sire at the moment it’s too easy to find the mare with 8 winners and a rating of 90, and I would not want some one else trying to nab her before me. I wish I could afford both Louise but sadly not.November 13, 2018 at 10:57 #1380428
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It was just for a comparison with Kalanisi – good luck with whichever you choose !
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