Newmarket

[bagnallc]

Im looking into the draw at Newmarket and it gets fairly complicated. Theres 3 steps to putting the data together.

1 – Obviously theres the July and Rowley courses

2 – Within each the track is split into Stand Side and Far Side courses.

3 – Within whichever of the stand side or Far Side courses it is, there is a definition of Far Side, Stands Side or Centre.

I am having trouble identifying which of the courses were in use going back through the years (step 2).

Can anyone offer a suggestion how to overcome this?

[Irish Stamp]

As a rule Mid-June to the end of August it will be the July Cup and the other races will be on the Rowley Mile.

The RP database normally specify’s which course it is.

[bagnallc]

Thanks but perhaps i didnt make myself clear.

I know whether its the Rowley or July course. What i cant find out is whether they ran the races on the far side or stands side splits within those tracks.

For example tomorrow its the July course and within that

Stands’ side course: 1m 2f – Centre; Remainder – Far side

Some of the backdated ones are on the RP but others are not.

[Irish Stamp]

Ah right – sorry Bagnallc I’m not sure where you’d find out.

Check out http://www.adrianmassey.com (hope Corm doesn’t mind me mentioning the site) for stats on favs, draw biases, weights, jockeys, trainers etc. It’s an absolute gold mine for stuff like that though I don’t think it covers what you’re after.

[Pajo]

Looks like a big undertaking to figure out Newmarket. Was it a couple of years ago they decided after the second or third race to change the stalls positions from those advertised because of a bias? (I may be wrong)

I would contact the course and put the question to them.

[aji]

Another complication with Newmarket is because of the excellent natural drainage they often have to water the course. That can produce biases that are impossible to track.

[apracing]

I’d suggest that investing time and effort in research the draw at Newmarket is unlikely to produce any worthwhile outcome.

I reckon the only bias, whichever track is used and wherever the stalls are placed, is the one the jockeys believe to be present. And their belief system can be seen to change from race to race on a single card.

There’s no mileage in a punter being certain that the far rail is the prime spot, if the jockeys opt to race down the middle. Just look back to the July Cup. All but one of the jockeys drawn 1 – 10 moved right out of the stalls to congregate in the middle of the track – which was part of the reason why they all got hampered by the jockey in stall 11, who wanted to be on the far rail.

If stall 11 can end up racing in the position occupied by stall 1, where’s the edge in trying to work out the best draw before the race!

AP

[Drone]

I reckon the only bias, whichever track is used and wherever the stalls are placed, is the one the jockeys believe to be present. And their belief system can be seen to change from race to race on a single card.

Yep, the self-fulfilling prophecy of the herd instinct

Perceived straight course ‘draw bias’ anywhere is best taken with a large pinch of salt

Regarding the Newmarket courses. Dunno if it’s now been rectified but the Timeform formbook, for one, didn’t record which halves of the courses were in use

So unless you saw the racing yourself there was no way of knowing what, for example, ‘stalls placed far side’ actually meant. Trap 1 could be next to the permanent rail on the far, far side or running the temporary rail on the far side down the centre

An unenviable task you have there Bagnallc

[bagnallc]

Yes as you say its quite a task.

However i do believe it could be worthwhile providing all the data is included.

I emailed Newmarket and will see what they reply with. Perhaps they have a strategy for choosing which split of the course is used and its easy enough to apply a backdate – then again maybe not!

[apracing]

Bagnallac,

Racing Post website does give the info you require on the daily results summary page. Click on ‘yesterdays results’, and this is what it reports today:

GOING: GOOD TO FIRM. Weather conditions: Sunny.
STALLS: Stands’ side course: 1m 2f – Centre; Remainder – Far side

You can use the date box at the top of the page to go back and look at the info for earlier meetings going back several years – all you need is to know the dates on which they raced.

AP

[Author]

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