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My summary – no one had a nightmare tonight, Sunak was smart, slick, maybe a bit too slick; Truss came out fighting and was as good as she (not the smartest) can be, Mordaunt did much better and her closing statement was the best, Badenoch had her moments but she needed to break through and didn’t, and Tungendhat was having a jolly.
They weren’t talking to us or the nation, they were talking to their Party members and, to a less extent, fellow Tory MPs.
I think it’s definitely between Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss now.
If it was a national vote, I think Mordaunt would win hands down.
But it isn’t.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Agree Penny is the one the electorate want but they ain’t getting her , I said Truss earlier in the week and I’ll stick by that , highlight no one putting Boris in there cabinet and also Sunak struggle with Tax fraud …that’s the stick to go after him with , Sunak just ain’t dirty enough , Starmer would have enjoyed himself watching …taking plenty notes
Poll of Tory voters puts Rishi Sunak clear https://t.co/3192p7vOF1 via @Yahoo
— lachamane@yahoo.com (@lachamaneyahoo6) July 17, 2022
Truss will be expecting a surge tomorrow, not because of tonight but because there should be Braverman votes headed her way.
What’s key is whether Mordaunt can hold her vote, as she’s had a torrid few days with serial toxic attacks, from both Westminster and the media.
Mordaunt may well be in third place Monday night.
But it’s not over for her because she might then have Tungendhat votes coming.
What Tory voters think isn’t nearly as important as what actual Tory members think and polls say Sunak still has work to do there.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Betfair Exchange is my barometer – 2.42 Sunak, 3.45 Mordaunt, 4.2 Truss, 14.5 Badenoch, 140 Tungendhat.
Sunak solid jolly but still has to start winning members polls, Mordaunt weaker but still in it, Truss right back in it, Badenoch fading and Tungendhat already has his coat on.
It’s worth pointing out it now looks doubtful if any candidate will go to conference with the support of even 50% of their parliamentary party – recipe for endless future conflict….
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“140 Tungendhat.”
The 10 I took about him last week is not looking like my finest punting hour.
On top of McIlroy blowing it in the Open and Lancashire snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in the Blast final.
At least I was right about Limerick winning the hurling. At a massive 4/9.
Your honesty is commendable, CAS.
Sunak hardening all the time, but it’s not about who is the highest calibre, it’s not even about who can command the most votes among MPs (a third will do) it’s about the membership.
They liked Badenoch, but whether they still do or not they are unlikely to get the chance to vote for her.
And after her, it’s Truss ahead of Mordaunt and Sunak in a three-way photo.
Ideally the parliamentary party would send one of the two to Conference with a resounding endorsement – right now it might almost be a three-way go photo at Westminster which sends the message: “we don’t know – you decide.”
If the members’ postal vote is then close too the next PM will have a majority in the Commons, but the weakest mandate from their own party in history.
It’s going to be a long two years until 2024.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"‘Mordor defends Johnson by saying he got brexit done.’
That’ll be why Sunak has said he’ll reform or scrap all the EU laws and ‘red tape’ then… Do people really believe this crap about it being ‘done’?
Speak to importers and exporters Rish mate, they’ll tell you it’s done nothing but add red tape. He’s an intelligent man so he damn well knows this, it’s a cynical ploy to get support. Will probably work too.
I reckon Sunak is a closet Remainer – anyone with a brain is, IMO – but that doesn’t fit the current Tory Party, or indeed national, agenda and he swims with the tide when he has to.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I wonder what I did with my life before referendums and brexit and numerous Conservative party leadership elections. I’m sure there was a time when I didn’t have to watch Sky News and parliament today all the time. I wish I could just blot it all out. And then there’ll be another general election and if my knee holds up it’ll be leafleting again…
Some really good analysis on tonight’s Westminster Hour. Well worth picking it up on BBC Sounds for those who have missed it.
Cheers, Gladders, but I reckon they should be tuning in to us here at TRF – top analysis tonight.
I listened to Sam Coates and he was saying the same as us.
The Mail really has it in for Mordaunt – no let up as they lead tomorrow on a meeting she’s meant to have had with a boycotted Muslim Group over ten years ago.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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