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National Weights

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  • #6530
    Friggo
    Member
    • Total Posts 1593

    Just out on the RP website (here)[/url:1590t5s0]

    No real surprises, apart from the fact that Mr Pointment was still favourite until this was announced! He may well be carrying 11-11 on the day. Snowy Morning now heads the market, and must have a chance should it come up on the soft side.
    I had a few speculative pennies on Character Building at the weekend, and I’m satisfied the 3lb hike Smith gave him will get him in.

    Any early thoughts?

    #140363
    batman
    Member
    • Total Posts 489

    prob wait till nearer the time, always hear a few good words nearer the race tony martin has a few decent one’s of low weights, chelsea harbour won a trial for it the other day at P’stown 33-1 at moment….again will wait nearer the race

    i see Beef or Salmon heads the weights that has to rule him out?

    #140370
    MCFC Stan
    Member
    • Total Posts 377

    Didn’t like Mr Pointment’s chances anyway as the plan is not to run before the race and historically you need to have run that calender year to win it. The weight is a final nail in the coffin.
    On a form line through Denman in last year’s Sun Allaince, Snowy Morning would have an ideal chance, will still be off a handy weight even if they go up and has form in both chases and hurdle races to suggest he’ll see the trip out well. But his price is a little skinny even at this stage.
    2 I do like are Comply or Die and Naunton Brook. Based on his novice form which was very good (Sun Allaince 2nd) and his staying on 4th in that season’s Hennessy, Comply or Die has a big chance off 139. He looked a bit one paced last time at Haydock when beaten by the very well treated Cloudy Lane on ground that was too heavy for both of them. At around the 40/1 mark he’d be the best Pipe horse in my book. Naunton Brook has been running well in marathon chases for the past 2 years and while he’s best on soft ground, he did win last autumn on good. Best when given an uncontested lead, he ran a good enough race last year leading for a long way and will be better for the experience a being a year older.

    #140377
    Friggo
    Member
    • Total Posts 1593

    First 2 trends in the National as a rule;

    Younger than 9, older than 11 – take them out

    Novice or second-season chaser – take them out

    Not at all, TC. Both of those trends have been bucked more than once in the past 6 years, including Bindaree who broke both as an 8y-o in 2002! Hedgehunter & Numbersixvalverde were also 2nd season chasers (albeit well-campaigned), and Amberleigh House was 12 when he landed the big one.
    However I agree with your principle that the National is the ultimate race in which to follow patterns in order to build up a profile of the most likely sort. I find the main trend, which has extended back to 1988, is that a horse has never carried a stone or more above the bottom weight to victory. This obviously can’t be drawn-up definitively until nearer the time, so for the moment that only rules out those at around 11-3 and above, and most definitely includes Mr Pointment. I believe there’s also a statistic about no F’s or UR’s that season, which would go against Snowy Morning.

    #140381
    Gazs Way De Solzen
    Member
    • Total Posts 2440

    Quite interesting to see Ollie Magern in there, may have a decent chance.

    Anyone know what weight it will be carrying? ? ?

    #140389
    sberry
    Member
    • Total Posts 1801

    the handicapper gives nothing away and Simon has to carry half a stone more than last year but i’ll still be backing me again, with Bewleys Berry and putting them both in a r/f

    i really thought Simon would win it last year right up to when he fell

    this year everybody, this year is mine 8)

    #140395
    Gazs Way De Solzen
    Member
    • Total Posts 2440

    the handicapper gives nothing away and Simon has to carry half a stone more than last year but i’ll still be backing me again, with Bewleys Berry and putting them both in a r/f

    i really thought Simon would win it last year right up to when he fell

    this year everybody, this year is mine 8)

    Me too.

    I was on him last year and he was travelling superbly until he came down.

    Hopefully can jump well again this year.

    Gareth.

    #140397
    NWRA
    Member
    • Total Posts 259

    I’m suprised that Mckelvey has been forgotton about. If he has a warm up over hurdles first, I don’t see why he won’t be thereabouts again. He was only narrowly beaten last year and he was injured in the final furlong. Reminds me of Hedgehunter when he fell at the last, and then came back the next year and won it.

    #140399
    graysonscolumn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6965

    I find the main trend, which has extended back to 1988, is that a horse has never carried a stone or more above the bottom weight to victory.

    With the quality of the race having improved so much in the last five years or so (with no sign of going the other way again), and even greater efforts made to frame the handicap to accommodate more runners running off 10st or more, I think that looks the one statistic which is ripest for bucking. In terms of strength in depth, it’s an increasingly different race to what it was when I was growing up.

    gc

    The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.

    #140410
    Neil Watson
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1376

    Agree with you on that one, No horse will run out of the handicap with weights of 8 or 9 stone and running big races at huge prices.

    Cant think why Mr Pointment gets 11 8 when he has only won a Becher Chase compared to Beef or Salmon who rightly gets topweight for winning 10 Grade Ones.

    I like Idle Talk as he ran a cracker at Doncaster in the Great Yorkshire and if his jumping holds up then he will run a big race

    Other one is Royal County Star on 10 7 looks ripe for a Tony Martin gamble.

    All in all should be a very good race but why not have a 3m3f race for all those out of the handicap and run it on the Saturday after the big race for Amateur and Conditional jockeys

    #140413
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Disagree totally that the weight is what will catch Beef or Salmon out.

    More so his cumbersome jumping will mean he gets detached so quickly he’ll either be pulled up by first Bechers or unseat there when totally detached after getting in too close to it!

    #140416
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7922

    am I right in thinking that no placed horse has gone on to win it for a long time- and no horse wearing cheekpieces, although they havn’t really been around for that long. 9 year olds seem to have the best record, not many 11 year olds, certainly not in the last 10 years or so.

    #140422
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Please forgive my lack of knowledge on this subject, but can anyone tell me if the weights can be adjusted from now and the start of the race.

    For example, if a horse is allocated 10-8 today, then wins three handicap chases in the next six weeks or so, can his weight be put up, will the horse incur a penalty etc?

    Another question, and again sorry for being stupid, but why isn’t the race just handicapped on official ratings like other handicap races – or is it just tradition to do it this way.

    Thanks in advance guys.

    Mike

    #140439
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Mikky

    The weights announced today are the weights the horses will carry on the day. Although they shall be adjusted upwards so that whatever is the highest weighted accepter carries 11-12.

    The reason that the official BHA ratings aren’t used? Officially it’s something to do with the fact the race is unique and 3m form can’t be used to assess horses over 4m4f etc etc but the real answer is probably to do with Phil Smith and his fondness for setting puzzles!

    #140440
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7922

    narrowed it down to a short list of errrr 33…..but do fancy Over the Creek and Bewleys Berry – also must back Point Barrow; would feel awful if, having backed him last year he came out and won this year…do agree with Comply or Die, but there must be an Irish horse lurking about somewhere that nobodies noticed..could it be Ursumman???

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