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At the start of each National Hunt (proper) season I have three lists of horses, the first loosely forms the basis for my main bets although this list is constantly being modified with horses being taken out and others added. It’s not a definitive “to follow (blindly)” list, rather a number of horses which should pay their way if backed in the right races. I’d expect each horse to win at least one race at the very least, some will clash with each other, a hard heart and a cool head will be needed on these occasions.
My “Horses To Beware Of” consist of ones that are likely to be at very short prices and therefore unlikely to offer value, yet are going to probably be very hard to beat
My “Horses To Oppose” consist of horses worth opposing for value, horses that are likely to offer very poor value, and are almost certain to end up at a loss on the season if backed a level stakes
I’ll update this list as the season progresses but my bets will be listed in my new “National Hunt Proper” thread
HORSES TO FOLLOW
ARABELLA BOY Looks the ideal type to win good grade Novice Chases, will probably need 20 Furlongs to be fully effective
AN SIORRAC Potentially the best horse in this list, has barely been out of a canter in his three races and was the most impressive winner of a Hunter Chase I’ve seen since Freddie in 1964, my long term Gold Cup horse and a star of the future so long as he’s fully recovered from the setback that caused him to miss last season. Returns in October when likely to clash with Sizing Europe.
ARNACLANCY Useful Hunter Casher, safe jumper, honest as the day is long but has a very strange action
BARIZAN Exciting trailblazing hurdler who will be hard to catch over 2 miles on any track, but especially on one without a real test of stamina on the run in.
BRADLEY Top staying Hunter, could easily graduate to staying chases, Eider, long term National possibility, probably a Foxhunters contender this season
CARRONHILLS High class Hunter Chaser but absent for over a year
DIAMOND HARRY Quirky horse, goes really well for Timmy Murphy, he’s a lot better than his RSA run, possibly Hennessey contender, a course like Newbury is ideal.
ELIZA DOALOT Game but tiny mare, usually a safe jumper but due to her size will be unsuited by bad ground an/or big fences, will win more Hunter Chases in the spring
FIDDLEDEDEE Could be anything, impressive winner of Point & Bumper now with JJ O’Neil
FOR BILL Another from the top drawer, expected to mop up in the top Novice Chases from 18 furlongs upwards in the same way she did in Points, Bumpers and Hurdles, only beaten once over unsuitable distance. Never raced outside Ireland but would be a serious RSA contender if transferring her high grade hurdle form to fences
GARDE CHAMPETRE Unlucky in last year’s Festival Cross Country, still sets the benchmark in these races Except him to be own the field in a warm up over hurdles before the first Cheltenham Cross Country
JONCOL Top class chaser who could be a King George or Gold Cup horse
KNOKARA BEAU A change of jockey and a left handed track seems to be all he needs to reach the very top grade
LOOSEN MY LOAD Has always looked a top novice chaser in the making, at this stage of the season a contender for The RSA
LUSKA LAD Tough and consistent hurdler, better with some give in the ground, will make a superb Novice Chaser, whether this year or next.
MAD JACK DUNCAN Fair chaser, hard to beat in his own grade. The handicapper will finally catch up with him but he still looks very green an awkward, may be better going right handed. Has his quirks, often needs rousting during a race but goes well for Aidan Coleman.
MASDAR Impressive Galway Bumper winner on debut, looks the right type to win again an make up into a classy novice hurdler
MY OLD PIANO Top flight pointer and very useful Hunter, lost confidence after a bad fall but, if he’s back to his best, is probably worth following
ON BORROWED WINGS Has some very good pieces of form over hurdles, unlucky not to at least finish in the frame at The Festival. Could win a good handicap hurdle but looks the type to do well over fences. Seems to go particularly well for Timmy Murphy.
OVERTURN Could turn out to be anything but his last run on the flat must be a concern. Prior to that run a Champion Hurdle didn’t look an impossibility
PANDORAMA At his most effective given extreme tests of stamina, distance and ground, Irish or Aintree Grand National possible or even a Gold Cup horse if the ground is deep enough
PEDDLER’S CROSS The most impressive hurdler of last season, it’s hard to see who can beat him over 18 furlongs upwards, serious World Hurdle contender. Will make a serious chaser , looks like a future Gold Cup winner on his form of last season
PROSPECT WELLS High class flat horse, if he jumps he must be headed for the very top grade Novice Hurdles
QUOTICA DES POYANS Bold jumper and strong front runner (usually), stays 3 miles well probably further. Could be anything, lost his unbeaten record under a very strange ride at Aintree, would probably have won despite the short trip and the jockey’s tactics, but chalked up a soft UR three out. Jockey upgrade essential if he’s going to fulfil his undoubted potential
QWETWO Looks every inch a top chaser in the making, expect to see him run up a sequence in the North before taking on the top novices
RASH MOVE Impressive winning Pointer and Hunter who probably needs to be allowed to bowl along in front to be seen at his best. Has had his troubles and is therefore very lightly raced for his age but jumps like a stag and is hard to get past once in front.
RAJIK His recent flat form has been very impressive and his low jumps rating means he’ll be throw in at the weights in any handicap hurdle he contests this autumn, price is likely to be prohibitive first time out but he looks the type to run up a sequence while climbing in class, Ladbrokes Hurdle perhaps?
RIMINI Winning pointer and fairly modest maiden hurdler but game and best from the front, needs a distance of ground, should win a race or two in the autumn
RITE OF PASSAGE Probably too good on the flat to be doing that much hurdling and he’s not convinced me 100% over hurdles but if he sharpens his hurdling he has an obvious to emulate Royal Gail’s Ascot Gold Cup/Champion Hurdle double
SIZING EUROPE Another star, very slick jumper, high cruising speed, best last year at 20 Furlongs, he’s stepping up to 22 furlongs on his seasonal debut, may clash with An Siorrac in that race. Looks a King George winner to me, may not stay the Gold Cup distance
SOLWIT Tough as old boots, expected to be a contender in all the top hurdle races, soft ground a big plus, will win more races than he looses.
THE FOX’S FROLIC A big price winner in the offing if I’ve ever seen one, probably next time out. Given an OR of 92 which looks exceptionally lenient by any standards and off a mark like this could well run up a sequence similar to his wins to runs ratio in points before the handicapper catches up with him. His first 3 runs over regulation fences appeared to be designed primarily not to catch the handicappers eye.
THE REAL ARTICLE Probably very well named, if he can jump properly, and Eddie O’Grady says he can, he can compete at the very highest novice level this season.
TUS NUA Two out of two in Bumpers and the stunning winner of her second run, this filly is only four an the sky could be the limit
VOLER LA VEDETTE Top mare, thrives in autumn and early winter, unbeaten in 2 seasons/6 runs during Oct-Dec, only one win from 5 starts outside these months. She appears to need 18 furlongs minimum against the very highest grade opposition, very hard to oppose with month/trip to suit.
WEIRD AL Unbeaten over fences and a serious contender for the top staying chases, looked to be one of the strongest contenders for last years RSA but missed the raceHORSES TO BEWARE
BIG BUCKS
HURRICANE RUN
MIKEAL DE HAUGUNETHORSES TO OPPOSE
KAUTO STAR
LONG RUN
ZAARITANice list CS. One thing I would say about Zaarito is that if they ever revert to hurdles with him, eg the Pierse, he’s a certainty.
I know you rate him highly Tommy, he’s only on that list as long as he’s sent chasing, I really fear for his safety of fences TBO, I too hope they revert to hurdling….
unless he goes over a longer chase distance where they’ll be going slower.I used to work in Enda Bolgers and we tought this horse was a machiene when he won his points.Enda says hes a horse for the 4miler at the festival.
I used to work in Enda Bolgers and we tought this horse was a machiene when he won his points.Enda says hes a horse for the 4miler at the festival.
An Siorrac? The turn of foot he showed in soft ground over 2m6f didn’t suggest a marathon horse to me, the rumour I heard was that he starts the season in the 2m6f Star Chase in Ocotber?
Unless the Festival 4 mile target is more recent info?
If Enda has said that recently then it makes me wonder if he’s quite the animal he looked before his injury? Surely they’d be aiming far higher than that with him if he’s 100% back to his best?
He was supposed to be better than Elegant Lord who would have won a Gold Cup if they’d run him.A very interesting piece my friend and i will follow with great interest.
Thanks for what could be valuable info.New Additions to my "Notebook"
ASKANNA
Unforgivable omission from the original list, four out of four in Points, Bumpers and Hurdles, comes from a stable who know all out top staying hurdlers, she could well run up a sequence, follow until beaten. Has an entry on Saturday at Navan
FERRIS BEULLER
The form of his point is working out quite well and, if no too highly tried, could win first time out under rules
HEAD OF THE POSSE
Lot to like about his debut win over fences, ridden with confidence, jumped well, will do well in novice chases, might even make up into an Arkle contender. RP “An impressive start over fences for HEAD OF THE POSSE who has won a bumper and three hurdle races. Apart from one mistake, he jumped well here and after closing steadily from 5 out, he went to the front soon after 2 out and quickly asserted, drawing clear to win unchallenged. It is early days in the serious jumps season but he looks quite a smart recruit.”
Has been tried and won at 20f but would want to avoid the likes of Loosen My Load and For Bill, 2 miles might be an easier option at the top level this yearHIDDEN UNIVERSE
It was only a slip of memory that meant this one was omitted from my original list. 4 out of 5 in Bumpers, he’s going to be a force to be reckoned with in novice hurdles. Note of caution, he ran well below his form elsewhere at Cheltenham, might have been unsuited by the track.
A very interesting piece my friend and i will follow with great interest.
Thanks for what could be valuable info.Lets hope so, keep a check on any updates, additions and ones coming out, I’ve just added four today
Sorry to be a newbie numptie, but when does the NH proper season starts. I don’t like AW flat racing so during the winter I might try NH, will follow with interest.
Be getting into action very shortly Berkoboy! Listowel last week saw some high quality action and a decent card at Navan on Saturday.
Very recent info is for the 4miler.Another horse i saw was Arabella Boy he worked along side An Siorac and ran all over him,but that was only over 6f.
Very recent info is for the 4miler.Another horse i saw was Arabella Boy he worked along side An Siorac and ran all over him,but that was only over 6f.
Doesn’t sound as if is the same horse he was before his injury
Arabella Boy is a very promising horse but would not in the same league as 100% An Siorrac Any idea what weights they were carrying?Zaarito underwent a wind operation over the summer as Colm Murphy felt that his jumping mistakes were due to impaired breathing. Granted he was jumping issues none the less but I wouldnt want to be a layer if the operation has had the desired impact. Hes not a typical robust chasing type either and prehaps a greater space between his races would suit him too.
I see your list horses are now coming out thick and fast. Yesterday I got nagged to say Vloer La Vadette was running. I was in a hurry to go out, saw the forecast was odds on, so left alone. Couldn’t believe when I got home it returned 6/4. Oh well.Thats life….
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