narrowing the field

[onefurlongout]

Happy Christmas everyone

When choosing a horse/race to have a bet on I’m sure that most members look to narrow the field to two or three possible selections At the moment I’m getting a good selection of winners within my shortlists but I’m finding that I invariably fall down on the final selection. Perhaps I should start betting on all three?

However my main reason for posting is to see whether any one has any data on the success rates of alternative shortlists produced by other publications?

I mainly use the racing post as my main source of data and I’ve noticed that the ‘spotlight verdict’ always details 2, 3 or 4 horses that it thinks has a chance of winning. Does anyone know of the ‘success rate’ of the selections.

I’ve also noticed that the tipsters column has a number of selections and I wondered what the success rate might be on these.

Any info would be greatly received

[Artemis]

onefurlongout’

All the best for the festive season. I think I can help you with the rate of success for tipsters.

The selections for each race are actually a subset of all selections for all races. In other words, they are a very small sample from a large population.

If you look at this population – all tipsters in all races – you are facing a loss of around 10 per cent on your stakes. This figure has been the same for many years. Selective betting can improve this dismal statistic, hence the existence of an army of optimistic punters and systems compilers.

As for Spotlight, these selections also show a very similar trend and they also tend to be overbet because the service is popular with lazy backers.
I don’t know what kind of system you are contemplating, but I would save yourself some precious time by not using tipsters as your first option for preparing a short list.

[onefurlongout]

Artemis,

Thanks for the advice.

Im basically looking at reducing my study time due to work commitments and I’m toying with applying my own selection process to a smaller selection of horses. This is mainly for better quality races. Perhaps I’d better look elsewhere for narrowing the field??

[Sean Rua]

One stat that is often quoted on racing messageboards is that

" 80% of winners are to be found in the RP Selection Box tips".

I believe this could be roughly correct, but I’m not sure whether it will help.
Perhaps, you should study split-staking or dutching as well?

As Artemis says, it is unlikely that the obvious ones will prove profitable in the long run.
On an exchange forum, a guy was laying the selection of the tipster with the most winners. This was using the RP nap challenge table and was based on several years results.
It seems that laying the selections of this "successful" tipster proved more profitable than backing them!

Sean Rua.

[Artemis]

I think most people look for a method of short- listing that will work for every race instead of a one that works particularly well for a certain type of race.

As an example, taking handicap chases at 24f+ as target races, you might consider the following:

1 A RPR(Racing Post Rating) within 10lbs of today’s rating in the last outing.

2. A Topspeed rating within 10lbs of today’s RPR rating in the last 60 days.

3. Placed last time out(but beaten under 10 lengths), or a winner in the last three outings..

4. A course winner.

A horse that ticks any THREE of the above four boxes is worth looking at in my opinion,

You could have a much longer list, but you would not expect any horse to tick all of your boxes, probably just three out of every four or close to that ratio.

Basically, I would be looking for recent form good enough to be competitive in today’s race, franked by a commensurate speed rating with
evidence that the horse can get close to the front and can act on the course. It also includes horses who ran well last time that have been absent for a while.

Most of the qualifiers will also be prominent in the betting, buy you should find a few at backable prices.
Edit 26th December, 8.53.am

Just for the sake of interest, there are 9 qualifiers on today’s crowded programme. They are:

Weth 1.35 Aleron, Lothian Falcon.L,W2/1f

Hunt 12.55 Noble Sham Fell

Market Ras 2.20 Matmata De Tendron PU

Sedg 2.10 Ryminster, Carry Duff.both UR
Towc 2.25 Blazing Hills NR

Winc 1.05 Nykel, Fine By Me. W7/2f 2nd 9/2[/color:1umi1rzi]

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