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Mythical draw bias and the herd mentality

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  • #11808
    carvillshill
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    • Total Posts 2778

    Some (including notable forumites) are convinced there is a bias to low numbers on Ascot’s straight course this week. In my view there is no more than the usual advantage of racing close to a rail but the uneven splits in the big field races are making it a self-fulfilling fallacy.
    Given all that, the manoevre by Ryan Moore on the well-backed Desert Creek in the Brittannia takes some defending: drawn 26, his early attempt at turning left was thwarted by the horses on his left not unreasonably wishing to stay where they were. Undaunted, he takes a pull at the 7 pole and turns sharp left to join the group in the centre. Unsurprisingly a short-lived subsequent challenge comes to naught.
    I had thought Mr Moore to be one of the more intelligent members of the cranially-challenged weighroom, but for that diversion to be worthwhile he must have felt there was a 10-12 length difference between staying far side and coming middle to near side, a truly ludicrous premise. Will they ever learn?
    btw I backed 2 others so have no particular axe to grind…

    #235083
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Ryan Moore, Glass Harmonium aside, has ridden terribly all week – I don’t think he gave Patkai any chance in the Gold Cup (in spite of him running keenly) and his effort aboard Highland Glen was appalling.

    As far as the draw goes, I think it’s often tempting to convince yourself that there’s a draw bias in the hope of being able to narrow down 30-runner fields quite quickly. I prefer to think of two separate races, identify the pace/hold-up angles for each and work from there, but when the media declare the Hunt Cup to be indicative of the true effect of the track people will follow blindly.

    #235085
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Some people just never learn, do they Carv, even Tom Segal has finally taken onboard that where the pace is much more significant in deciding the outcome. :lol:
    I remember the first Royal meeting after the work was carried out; the then clerk of the course, (Nick Cheyne?) did a comprehensive going stick test down both sides of the course, and the only difference he could find anywhere was 9.5 stand side; 9.6 far side (0.6%), negligible and insignificant.
    York and Doncaster (straight courses) are pretty much the same fair tracks, since similar work was carried out, but you can bet your life we’ll still be reading ‘draw bias’, on all 3, for many years to come.
    Re Ryan Moore – he was possibly under instruction, as the lower drawn of his stables representatives, to take out insurance by having one either side, but the more cynical amongst us might believe otherwise. The other SMS horse, Mirrored, was unlucky as it turned out, and would probably have won with a clearer passage.

    #235090
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    It is very stange to me that the result of one race has somehow resulted in hard evidence in the minds of some of no draw bias.

    Draw bias is only one thing to consider, pace being another.

    But let’s look at all the races on the straight course so far.

    On Wednesday it was not just the result of the Hunt Cup that made me believe there was / is a bias.

    The Jersey over 7f straight 16 ran.
    1st Ouqba drawn 3 came up the rail.
    2nd Deposer drawn 6 came up the rail.
    3rd Ashram drawn 9.
    4th Gallagher drawn 8.

    Breaking the field in two that’s 3 to 1 to low numbers with only the lowest of the high numbers scoring a place.

    The Windsor Forest was a race won by pace, the prominent runners remaining there throughout in a slowly run race. The second racing alongside Spacious. Murtagh took the winner to the rail but that is probably coincidence. The fourth, outsider Chantilly Tiffany also came up the rail.

    Hunt Cup 1m straight 30 runners
    1st Forgotten Voice probably would have won from any draw but drawn 1. Came up the rail.
    2nd Huzzah raced stand side in 5.
    3rd Mia’s Boy drawn 4 came up the rail.
    4th Nanton drawn 21 but raced on the outer of the stand side group.

    3 to 1 to the stand side.

    Queen Mary 5f straight 13 runners:
    1st Jealous Again drawn 1 came up the rail.
    2nd Misheer drawn 4 and followed the winner up the rail.
    3rd Ceedwell drawn 3 near the rail.

    The two placed horses being relative outsiders.
    3 to 0 to low numbers.

    Sandringham 1m straight 21 runners.
    1st Moneycantbuymelove drawn 4
    2nd Golden Stream drawn 3
    3rd Please Ring drawn 7
    4th Silver Games drawn 19.

    Again 3 to 1 for low numbers with the first 3 all low.

    Day 1
    Queen Anne possibly only a coincidence with only 9 runners but…
    1st drawn 3
    2nd drawn 1
    3rd drawn 2

    3 to 0.

    King Stand Scenic Blast may have done even better to defy the outside draw.
    1st drawn 15
    2nd drawn 1
    3rd drawn 2
    4th drawn 7

    3 to 1. With the 2nd and 3rd coming up near the rail.

    Coventry 13 runners
    1st drawn 9 Did Canford Cliffs come over to the rail?
    2nd drawn 11
    3rd drawn 8

    o.k. That was 0 to 3.

    Windsor Castle 22 ran
    1st although drawn 16 didn’t the winner come to the rail?
    2nd drawn 2
    3rd drawn 4
    4th drawn 5

    3 to 1.

    Horses draw low to finish placed 21
    Those drawn high to place 7
    That’s without some of the horses drawn high coming over to race stand side, negating any draw advantage.
    A lot of those low drawn horses to place were also outsiders. Including two at 33/1 and two 25/1 shots.

    So it’s not exactly all about one race.

    In the Britannia
    1st drawn 15
    2nd drawn 13
    3rd drawn 30
    4th drawn 29

    The pace difference, with the far side being ahead of the stand side coming in to the final furlong or so; could be a possible reason for equality.

    Nobody is rushing to conclusions.
    May be any advantage is a coincidence, may be not.
    May be as the week goes on the stand side gets cut up and becomes a disadvantage.

    But I do think there is sufficient evidence to “suggest” some bias. Therefore, I have to allow for a “possible” bias in my workings out.

    Value Is Everything
    #235093
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    I backed Patkai and think it was a good ride.

    A jockey must do what will "probably" be best for his horse. Moore had no choice but to get him behind horses early to get settled. He was in a fair position on the bend and could expect gaps to come. However, Yeats went for home and took a few lengths out of the field before Patkai could be extracated. May be if Veracity had not gone wrong the gaps would have come. Still don’t think it cost Moore a winning chance. It is easy to citisise in hindsight. A particularly good ride from Murtagh.

    Peslier held Vision d’Etat up out the back in a race not run at an end to end gallop. In a worse position than Moore was on Patkai. Yet the gaps came for him. In my opinion Moore’s ride was a better one than Peslier’s. His was somehow a well judged, patient ride. It’s all hindsight, Vision d’Etat was less likely to get the breaks but they came. In that race Moore came wide and was critisised, seems any winning ride is a good one and any losing ride is poor.

    Value Is Everything
    #235104
    thedarkknight
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    • Total Posts 1299

    I’m not quite sure why, but I definitely think the stands rail was quicker on Wednesday- maybe it is something to do with how quickly the watered ground was drying in different areas due to the position of the grandstand? Just watch the closing stages of the Sandringham – those closest to the rail were definitely all finishing better – and I don’t think it was lemming jockeys making it a self fulfilling prophecy in these cases.

    Anyway – this exact same thing happened last year – it looked like a low bias on day 1/2, but the rest of the week just went with where the pace was.

    #235118
    stilvi
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    • Total Posts 4515

    Given this has cropped up on other threads with the same posters isn’t this something of an overkill along the lines of ‘we know what we are talking everyone else doesn’t’.

    Some might say the results speak for themselves. I would just add that I suspect most, if not all trainers would have readily given up their high draws yesterday – are we really suggesting they are a bunch of idiots? It is also perfectly feasible that if Mirrored and Espiritu had raced on the other side they might have ended up three lengths clear.

    #235569
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    I would just add that I suspect most, if not all trainers would have readily given up their high draws yesterday – are we really suggesting they are a bunch of idiots?.

    Yes.

    #235571
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    Well done Carv. You finally got your high drawn winner on the last race of the week on the straight course. Where the pace was so much better that side.:wink:

    Value Is Everything
    #235573
    thedarkknight
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    • Total Posts 1299

    It amazes me that jockeys were tacking across from single figures to go

    high

    in the Wokingham..

    It definitely looked an advantage being right up against the stand rail in teh Golden Jubilee (compared to the middle of the course admittedly) , but bizarrely, not many jocks seemed keen to be there in the Wokingham

    #235579
    Glenn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1988

    You could have driven a double decker bus up against the near side rail in the Wokingham and you wouldn’t have got in the way of any of the horses. Unbeilevable scenes.

    #235586
    thedarkknight
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    • Total Posts 1299

    Agreed

    Even accounting for the usual stupidity of jockeys and connections I really thought

    every single

    jockey drawn low would have been instructed to get as close as they possibly could to the stands rail and stay there.

    I’m not saying they would have won the race had they done that, but the tactics employed by virtually all of them were staggeringly bad.

    #235608
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3177

    Glenn/TDK you could pretty much have driven the same double decker bus up the far rail too. Not complaining as it helped Frankie get up the inner on Asset – just wish they’d shut Moore off :lol:

    #235613
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    It beggars belief that jockeys would rather be marooned in the middle of the track than have a rail to help especially as a horse had just scooted up the rail to win the previous sprint.
    This is my last post on the subject but I still believe there was little in it, as most of the examples given weren’t in full fields and didn’t feature horses staying reasonably close to the far rail. Of course in races like the Jersey the near rail dominated as the high draws ended up in the middle. Jockeys performing violent manoevres to come low from high draws should be taken out and shot.

    #235619
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    It amazes me that jockeys were tacking across from single figures to go

    high

    in the Wokingham..

    It definitely looked an advantage being right up against the stand rail in teh Golden Jubilee (compared to the middle of the course admittedly) , but bizarrely, not many jocks seemed keen to be there in the Wokingham

    Imo, the majority of the jockeys in both races just went to the side where they thought the pace would be and, in both instances, proved correct.
    It showed, as it does year after year, that the ground confers no advantage on either side. The pace most definitely does.

    #235632
    chalk jockey
    Participant
    • Total Posts 252

    I think there was a low bias earlier in the week,but after the watering there was no certainty it would be there on Saturday.

    If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.

    #235634
    thedarkknight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1299

    RH – Tamagin

    was

    one of the pace influences and he has gone over from stall 9. Those are the kind of moronic tactics that pretty much ensure defeat for a horse in a competitive sprint.

    Pre-race I would have said the best pace was among the low numbers in the Wokingham – and that seemed to be the consensus on the BBC, ATR and every single thing I had read on the subject pre-race.

    It was only after the race, of course, that people came out and said the best pace was high…

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