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Oh, come on, I don’t think the fact My Will ran third made him a good price.
Surely, Mon Mome was a "good" price?
You can come up with specious reasoning as to what My Will
would have
done
if he hadn’t done this that and the other etc.
We may as well go through all the fallers and look at what they could have done.
Sure, he may have got 2nd at best, but the winner p*ssed up.
I wouldn’t want to back My Will next time, would you? He still hasn’t won in 3 years and is surely in the handicappers’ grip.
I am not saying My Will would’ve won Getzippy, just that at 8/1 (8/1 = true odds of 11%) was a good bet, win or lose. Because I believed him to have a 13.25% chance of winning.
Are you saying My Will would not have been closer had he not made those mistakes? My Will won at Cheltenham early in 06/07, then beaten two short heads in another handicap. Also 2nd in the Betfair Bowl at Aintree to Exotic Dancer. Before being placed off a 9lb lower mark than on Saturday. Only once (in Gold Cup) out of the first three that year. It may be "three years but it was only 7 starts since a win and had improved since that win.
Form is not wins, it is one horses performance against another.
Would I back My Will next time? Depends if I think he is value or not.
Mark
Value Is EverythingWins make profit – unless you’re playing My Will EW every time he runs and the prices are good (?)
He may have been closer, but for the mistakes, but 2nd at best.
And I really think it’s pointless wielding supposition at what horses may have done in such a race. Which horses should we include in the "what could have happened next" scenario, and which should we dismiss?
Zip
It is useless to ponder on what a horse might have done had he not fallen at the 3rd fence or even 19th. But it is possible to give an educated guess at what a horse would have done had he not fallen at Beechers second time around (as many did when backing Butler’s Cabin this time around). A punter has no choice but to make these decisions all the time. Working out the chance of a particular horse. It is not a pointless excercise at all.
It is also possible to judge what a horse might have done had he not made several bad mistakes, like My Will or State Of Play.
Mark
Value Is EverythingOh, come on, I don’t think the fact My Will ran third made him a good price.
Surely, Mon Mome was a "good" price?
You can come up with specious reasoning as to what My Will
would have
done
if he hadn’t done this that and the other etc.
We may as well go through all the fallers and look at what they could have done.
Sure, he may have got 2nd at best, but the winner p*ssed up.
I wouldn’t want to back My Will next time, would you? He still hasn’t won in 3 years and is surely in the handicappers’ grip.
Just out of interest, who would you back next time out, Mon Mome by any chance? I’d rather be on My Will if the two met again and so would most I presume.
Easy to spot a "good" price after the race but anyone who backed My Will anti-post would be pleased surely….. if you’re winning, you’re not losing.
Ruby gave him a great ride. He really whacked the fence at the canal turn but Ruby never looked like coming off. In the end he’s run well but was still a silly price for such an open looking race.
Despite jumping poorly, making at least three bad mistakes, My Will made a profit for his each way followers, so how was he a "silly price"? Had he jumped anywhere near as well as the winner, he’d have given Mon Mome plenty to do. My Will probably did not run to form yet still finished third.
The second, third and fourth were all very well fancied, so it was not that "open".
Mark
So what he finished 3rd? He was a rediculous price for the Grand National that was one of the most open races for years.
He ended up 8/1 so 1 pt ew is 2 pts staked to get a 3pt return in the worlds toughest steepelchase.
Have you the remotest idea what the chances were he would be out of the first 4? Luck was on his side and he got placed but that doesn’t alter the fact he was a mugs bet and sometime mugs are lucky. How lucky were they? Had some of the fallers stood up he could easily have been out of the 4.
The minute PN saddles anything it knock lumps of the price and the mugs come pouring in.
A classic example was Tatenan. Since the day he was made fav for the Arkle I said he was a false fav. A far superior animal Kalahri King was 25/1
when he was 3/1 and I saw real value and backed him EW. The the other day what do the bookies do they make PN’s fav again.
So while you are backing a horse at 1/2 to get a place in a huge field in the Grand National I am getting stuck into 9/4 about a horse that should have been 4/5 and you are talking to me about value???
You haven’t got a clue……..1/2 value in the Grand National is beyond the reals of common sense something you clearly lack.
Oh, come on, I don’t think the fact My Will ran third made him a good price.
Surely, Mon Mome was a "good" price?
You can come up with specious reasoning as to what My Will
would have
done
if he hadn’t done this that and the other etc.
We may as well go through all the fallers and look at what they could have done.
Sure, he may have got 2nd at best, but the winner p*ssed up.
I wouldn’t want to back My Will next time, would you? He still hasn’t won in 3 years and is surely in the handicappers’ grip.
Just out of interest, who would you back next time out, Mon Mome by any chance? I’d rather be on My Will if the two met again and so would most I presume.
Easy to spot a "good" price after the race but anyone who backed My Will anti-post would be pleased surely….. if you’re winning, you’re not losing.
Why would you think for one minute that a horse beaten 13 lengths and has won 1 race in almost 4 years could reverse such a wide margin?
Let me answer that for you. Because he is trained by PN.
If the race were run again and both were in the same condition even with an angel from heaven on his back he couldn’t possible reverse the places.
He had the best jockey you could imagine on his back and ran a great race but the winner won so easily he could have gone round again.
To be honest if the 2 met again with their records none of them would be worth backing as both would probably get beat. When it comes to winning consitancy is hardly part of their makeup.
No value in P Nicholls horses, just as there was never any value in the Pipe/McCoy era…unfortunately probably won’t be so much value in Venetias’ horses in the future, just as I’d started to follow them.
Ruby gave him a great ride. He really whacked the fence at the canal turn but Ruby never looked like coming off. In the end he’s run well but was still a silly price for such an open looking race.
Despite jumping poorly, making at least three bad mistakes, My Will made a profit for his each way followers, so how was he a "silly price"? Had he jumped anywhere near as well as the winner, he’d have given Mon Mome plenty to do. My Will probably did not run to form yet still finished third.
The second, third and fourth were all very well fancied, so it was not that "open".
Mark
So what he finished 3rd? He was a rediculous price for the Grand National that was one of the most open races for years.
He ended up 8/1 so 1 pt ew is 2 pts staked to get a 3pt return in the worlds toughest steepelchase.
Have you the remotest idea what the chances were he would be out of the first 4? Luck was on his side and he got placed but that doesn’t alter the fact he was a mugs bet and sometime mugs are lucky. How lucky were they? Had some of the fallers stood up he could easily have been out of the 4.
The minute PN saddles anything it knock lumps of the price and the mugs come pouring in.
A classic example was Tatenan. Since the day he was made fav for the Arkle I said he was a false fav. A far superior animal Kalahri King was 25/1
when he was 3/1 and I saw real value and backed him EW. The the other day what do the bookies do they make PN’s fav again. So while you are backing a horse at 1/2 to get a place in a huge field in the Grand National I am getting stuck into 9/4 about a horse that should have been 4/5 and you are talking to me about value???
You haven’t got a clue……..1/2 value in the Grand National is beyond the reals of common sense something you clearly lack.
You say "the minute PN saddles anthing it knocks lumps off the price and mugs come pouring in". So you are admitting to being a mug Fist, when backing Kauto Star. Never thought I ‘d see you admit it.
Every price should be treated on it’s own merits if PN is training it or not. Sometimes PN trained horses are value Fist, as you know wih Kauto Star. It was certainly not the Nicholls fan club that made My Will 8/1. In his Racing Post article he told everyone that in his opnion Big Fella Thanks had around the same chance as My Will; something Harry Findlay also mentioned. I would suggest the Nicholls fans were the ones who backed BFT on the day (being available at a much bigger price), not My Will.
Just because a 100/1 shot won does not make it an open race. Take that ONE horse out of the race and the first three home would’v been what might have been suspected.
So which fallers looked like finishing ahead of My Will then?
A £1 place part of an each way bet at 8/1 would return £3. That is a price of 2/1 on the place part, not what you claim 1/2.
If you want to include the win part of the bet in the stake, then the chance of winning the win bet must be included; so it is wrong to call it a 1/2 chance. When backing a normal 1/2 chance there is no bookmaker that will also allow you 8/1, or do you know different?
And you say I "haven’t a clue".
Though I do agree Fist, Tatenan was a false price, well done on backing Kalahari King. You must be backing so many winners, I’d like to see your tips, where can I find them?
Mark
Value Is EverythingWhy would you think for one minute that a horse beaten 13 lengths and has won 1 race in almost 4 years could reverse such a wide margin?
Let me answer that for you. Because he is trained by PN.
If the race were run again and both were in the same condition even with an angel from heaven on his back he couldn’t possible reverse the places.
He had the best jockey you could imagine on his back and ran a great race but the winner won so easily he could have gone round again.
To be honest if the 2 met again with their records none of them would be worth backing as both would probably get beat. When it comes to winning consitancy is hardly part of their makeup.
Why do you assume the only reason I would back him would be down to the Paul Nicholls factor? I suspect it’s the only reason you would back him.
The point is My Will runs more consistantly than Mon Mome and in better races. If the two were to meet again at the same weights I would still back My Will as (IMO) Mon Mome is the more likely to run below form (if the odds of the two horses were the same obviously
)Ps- Don’t be too angry Fists, I think it’s a fair enough point.
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