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A bit disappointing there’s only six runners but it looks a decent race. I thought Miss Tonnerre looked overpriced at 12/1. Didn’t make a splash on heavy ground last effort of 2024 but was not far behind the 1000 Guineas winner and runner up beforehand on good.
Ed Walker HOTT right now too.When i saw your post last night Chivers, I had a quick look at the form and had to agree with you about Miss Tonnerre. Couldn’t get on at the 12/1 on offer but (sorry about the aftertiming) put a bet up on betfair @ 12 and almost £20 was taken. So win or lose looks like I am on at a value price. Now 5/1 at best and in places as low as 7/2.
So thanks Chivers.
Value Is EverythingMy pleasure. Probably wouldn’t be playing at the current price. Not going to raise expectations because of market move but trainer has been talking her up well.
Once again Chivers, we agree.
In my 100% book, although a few others are imo “value”, the filly most different to current odds is Miss Tonnerre. I’ve made her a 12.5% fair 7/1. So having backed her @ 12 have now laid her back @ 6. Winning three figures if she wins and losing nothing if not.My 100% book:
Whirl 9/4 (currently best odds 5/2)
Smoken 3/1 (best 4.8 with betfair)
Serenity Prayer 9/2 (best 6)
Miss Tonnerre 7/1 (best 5.5)
Go Go Boots 10/1 (13/2)
Tattycoram 28/1 (18/1)Value Is EverythingInclined to forgive Fav Whirl for her disappointing reappearance after her efforts last year. Not very big so they may have been easy on her this year. Seemed to run on at end and looks easygoing, likely answers the stamina question.
Kinda wish Tonnerre opened up at 4/1. Sod’s Law only AOB trialist I’ve backed (lion) will need the run.
I haven’t backed him Chivers as afraid he might need the run. I still think he’ll go on to win the Derby as long as he runs credibly tomorrow though.
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