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My mate has just rang me to calculate a bet for him.
£1 Lucky 15; Goldikova, Prohibit (12/1), Frankel (1/3) and Power (4/1).
"Sure, I’ll work that out for you but why didn’t you have a Yankee instead?", I asked him (he’d already told me days before how Frankel was his banker of all time lol).
"Because you get something back if you have just one winner", was his reply.
I then tried to explain that if Frankel was his only winner, he’d owe the bookies money, and given that he thought Frankel was a certainty, he needed at least two winners to get something worthwhile back.
For his £15 outlay I explained he could have had a £1.40 Yankee (for an extra 40p), but his return would be approximately £245 as opposed to the £195 he will pick up for his Lucky 15.
It baffles me – and irritates me if I’m being honest – why mug punters forget a simple concept that is mathematics when it comes to gambling. Why needlessly give bookies money when they already have so much stacked in their favour?
Anyway, drinks are on my mate at the quiz tonight so I shouldn’t complain too much
I’m sure there must exist some bizarre combos of four horses where it’s ‘mathematically correct strategy’ to pass up the option of adding four singles to a yankee (where one winner pays double/treble/quadruple odds). But even with a 1/3 poke in there I’m not sure you’ve found one…
You know some funny folk One Eye, a mug punter mate who picks 3 winners and second but still doesn’t satisfy you and an old codger who picks lots of winners but has no idea of value
You know some funny folk One Eye, a mug punter mate who picks 3 winners and second but still doesn’t satisfy you and an old codger who picks lots of winners but has no idea of value
Old codger???
I know of none.
And as for my mate, just trying to educate the bloke… nothing wrong with that is there
What you should have asked him was, why didn’t he just put a £100 accumulator on instead – minus Goldikova !
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
What you should have asked him was, why didn’t he just put a £100 accumulator on instead – minus Goldikova !
I did, but he wouldn’t listen
People must realise that few of the threads I start are factual. I don’t know any old codgers and I certainly don’t have any friends, but I start these threads with the sole intention of provoking debate.
Sometimes it works (value is nothing thread), sometimes it doesn’t (every other thread I’ve started)
For sure I’d have put the singles on separately and left Frankel out of the singles. At those odds (and for a pound lest we forget) you couldn’t have bought a bag of chips. Bonus or no bonus.
It’s been a fair wee while since I had a Lucky 15 though, longer still since I won sufficient money to buy chips from one.
I did some maths on lucky 15s a while back. Like yankees, they are usually not a good bet because of the compounded overrounds. However at treble odds one winner they are usually better value than yankees.
At fair odds, the best lucky 15 strategy is to pick long -priced horses. e.g if you pick four horses at 99-1 and repeat the bet 10000 times you will get one winner on about 400 bets. These 400 bets will pay 299-1. You will get two winners about 6 times – paying 9999-1 plus two singles at 99-1. So you pay out £150000 on 10000 £1 lucky 15s and get back £120000 plus £60000 plus £1200 ie £181200.
Unfortunately, the overround tends to be higher at high odds so in practice the best strategy is often to stick around the 5-1 to 10-1 level.
Each-way lucky fifteens can be lucrative if the place odds are in your favour but it is often hard to find four each -way thieving bets on the same day.
We need these kind of people so all of us can keep bashing the bookies…………
if only that were true!
Of course there are exceptions, but most punters who bet regularly in multiples are mug punters in my experience. Whether or not they know how to calculate their winnings.
Value Is EverythingWell, as one who’s always spurned accumulators and basically agrees with Oneeye’s put-down of punters who, to their disadvantage, can’t be bothered to do the maths, I do have difficulty with the tag "mug" for punters who just go for the "big" win, rather than the more admired, contemplative, form-based value merchant who wants (and maybe gets) regular profit.
Take the following comaprison and then judge who is the "mug":-PUNTER A. Spends 12 hours per week minimum studying form/watching races, seeking value, doing the maths etc. Makes an average of £8k profit for 20years. Profit = £160,000 (before cost of Racing publications, going racing, TV, book and broadband subscriptions etc). 160k over 20 yrs at 12 hours per week is approx. £13 per hour.
PUNTER B. Loses 4 pound a week every week doing an accumulator where he just picks horses with "nice" names (no studying form or owt like that) for 20 years except for one winning week when his big gamble pays off and he wins £165,000 on a bet that punter A would sniff at..
Who’s the mug?
Who’s profit A or B will prove the most life enhancing?If a backer puts a multiple bet on as a bit of fun, writing off the bet as soon as he strikes the bet, that’s fine. (As long as he doesn’t over-do it). It’s the punter putting a lot of money (for him) on in a bid to get rich quick; or one who relies on luck to make a profit, who is the mug.
Fact of the matter is the vast majority of multiples punters will never get that miracle win. Might win a few thousand every few years, but conveniently forgets all those two pound bets adding up.
Bookmakers like the multiple backer. Their percentage take out on multiples are more than win and each way bets.
Value Is EverythingI very rarely bet. Honestly, that’s true. But I really enjoy analysing form, if time permits, on top class races.
Looked at the Derby, had doubts about the stamina of CH, picked PM, but didn’t back it. £2 win is my max outlay on a single bet so it wasn’t worth bothering. Still really enjoyed watching the horse win.
So my first bet this year was yesterday at Ascot.
I am one of those mug punters who enjoy L15s!! Did 5 horses this time, 10p win, cost £3.10 (Lucky 31?) which is splashing out a bit.
Got 3 winners (LolforDol 14/1,Rew 12/1, Juln 16/1) The other 2, WestA and Somach let me down.
Never mind. A bit of fun and a payout of £403.10. Should keep me going for a few years.I hate the term mug punter.
Snobbish in the extreme.
Its no business of anyone what and how other people bet.
I hate the term mug punter.
Snobbish in the extreme.
Its no business of anyone what and how other people bet.
I also hate the term ‘mug punter’ and I don’t think I have ever bragged about any betting success. Unfortunately, incensed by this term, I succumbed.
I don’t believe the bookmaker makes money out of occasional 10p L15s, L31s, Yankees etc. Where they score is when gambling gets out of control, and single bets of hundreds if not thousands of £s are put on per race. This is when people can get into serious debt and even lose their homes.
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