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Thanks for that Prufrock. Does that mean that the Dewhurst winner will almost always be your top juvenile?
Gus
Like Prufrock, I find race standardisation a reliable means of assessing merit and that is through that that I am happy with the figure I have for Mount Nelson.
Isn’t all handicapping a ‘bit of a hunch’ or a matter of opinion at the end of the day?
No, not at all. This year’s Dewhurst had 15 runners, a reasonable margin back to the third and was run in a good time, but I have it only just ahead of Dutch Art’s winning performance in the Middle Park as it stands.
Assessments of a race should always be revisited in the light of the subsequent efforts of the horses who contested that race, and the race standards themselves must always be subject to scrutiny in the same respect.
Fair enough, gents. I disagree with you in that I can find no reason for distinguishing between Rallying Cry’s two runs. In actual fact, I tend to rate races on time and, as I’ve said elsewhere on here, I reckon the Dewhurst was indeed an above-average renewal. Unfortunately, I can’t "timerate" Mount Nelson’s win in France because of unreliable data.
Gus
The Criterium does ‘seem’ a very good time. 0.74 seconds quicker than the Group 3 Prix Perth for older horses later on the card. No reason either to think the Prix Perth was run at a steady gallop either.<br>
Collateral form is of limited use with all horses, most of all immature ones, but…..
…..Dutch Art beat Hellvelyn by 2.75 lengths further in the Middle Park than Holy Roman Emperor did in the Phoenix (both at 6f) and Captain Marvelous (3.25 lengths behind Dutch Art in the Middle Park) won a Group 2 by 3 lengths on his only start since.
Meanwhile, as mentioned earlier in this thread, the only two horses to have run out of the Dewhurst have been unplaced behind Mount Nelson.
I think you need to reappraise the Middle Park if you think Dutch Art ran to much less than 120 and the Dewhurst if you think Teofilo ran to much more (I have him at 122 or 123 on the BHB scale).
Quote: from Prufrock on 11:33 pm on Oct. 31, 2006[br]Collateral form is of limited use with all horses, most of all immature ones, but…..
…..Dutch Art beat Hellvelyn by 2.75 lengths further in the Middle Park than Holy Roman Emperor did in the Phoenix (both at 6f) and Captain Marvelous (3.25 lengths behind Dutch Art in the Middle Park) won a Group 2 by 3 lengths on his only start since.
Agree with your collateral formline quote
<br>Hellvelyn found zilch, plus got interferred with so using him as a "yardstick" is a tad risky imo, Captain marvelous previously OR 16lbs behind Wi Dud, but manages to get within a 1. 25L of him, do we believe  CM has improved  on the soft ground, Wi Dud didn’t run up to previous form or was Wi Dud overrated by the BHB handicapper.
CM had Brave Tin Soldier  3L behind in the Middle Park, who beat Invincible Force (OR 86) by 2.5L at the Curragh, latter goes to France, finishes 2nd to Iron Lips (beaten 1.5L) who subsequently finishes 3L behind CM
<br>Though the winner looks decent, do not these collateral formlines make yer think maybe Middle Park, Creterium should be treated with little caution and CM should be around the 100 mark thus making Dutch Art’s Middle Park around 116+
On the Dewhurst.
though the front two look decent on all known form, the 3rd Stategic Price( late foal) was coming back from a break, plus there were ground concerns from connections, 4th(maiden winner, late foal) only having it’s second run, Vital Equine seems to have run close to it’s previous form at York and Longchamp, Rallying Cry turned previous form around with He’s A Decoy( ground? best form on Good or Faster)  Adagio 2nd run(maiden winner,another potential late developer)  add to this the Hallicamassus(conquerer of Rallyying Cry/He’s A Decoy) poor show
Do you not think this race  needs to be treated with caution and the winner is probably  worth a rating of around 121+
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(Edited by empty wallet at 3:14 am on Nov. 1, 2006)
BTW: Dutch Art: 119 <br>     Teofilo: 123+ IMO
When you said there was "miles" between them I thought you meant rather more than that.
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