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i have just seen mount nelson’s win in france it was an impressive performance, plus the form looks good to .He is well worth an ante post bet for the guineas
I backed him in Ireland last time, didn’t realise he was running today. Any idea what price he returned?
He paid just under 11/1 on the pari-mutuel.
The Post’s analysis is interesting. Yellowstone’s proximity in third "will inevitably cast doubts over the merits of the form." The writer chooses to ignore the fact that Vital Equine, beaten three lengths in the Dewhurst, finished four lengths off the winner yesterday and Rallying Cry, beaten four lengths at Newmarket, was two and a half lengths down in France. Even if you accept, as I do, that Vital Equine ran below form yesterday a – not all that tenuous – line through Rallying Cry puts Mount Nelson only three pounds or so behind Teofilo.
Surprised that nobody has mentioned the franking of the Middle Parl form by Captain Marvellous who beat Paul Blockley’s Baby Strange by 3 lengths in the Criterium de Maisons Laffitte.
Dutch Art’s form credentials are very solid indeed, DJ, but he clearly has potential stamina limitations as far as the Guineas is concerned although you couldn’t say for certain that he won’t stay a mile.
As for Sunday’s race, the Post handicapper has Vital Equine and Rallying Cry running respectively 10lbs and 4lbs below their Dewhurst form. I accept Vital Equine ran some way below form but I’m not at all sure Rallying Cry did and it smacks of convenience to me.
Gus
I have no doubt that Dutch Art will not stay the Guineas trip. But he looks just the sort of colt to give the upgraded handicappers a thing or 2 to think about from the Golden Jubilee onwards. When you look at Amadeus Wolf’s 2yo form, see what he’s done sprinting this year and then see that Dutch Art is about 7 lb better then he has strong pretentions of going to the very top at sprinting next year.
I would agree with the Post that Rallying Cry was a little below his Dewhurst form. Not quite 4 lb though and think that Mount Nelson still has something to find with the likes of Authorized and Eagle Mountain, never mind the big 3 of Teofilo, Holy Roman Emperor and Dutch Art.
Quote: from davidjohnson on 9:34 am on Oct. 31, 2006[br]I would agree with the Post that Rallying Cry was a little below his Dewhurst form.
Why?
I’m not sure why he was a little below form. I’ve only got him a couple of pounds shy of his Dewhurst run so it’s only a case of splitting hairs, but he certainly didn’t see the race out quite so well as he had the Dewhurst. Perhaps stamina was a problem, his distance win much less of a stamina test in a smaller field.
Presumably because it is good practice to rate horses on races rather than races on horses.
I have Rallying Cry 3 lb below his Dewhurst form by those means.
I do think it adds weight to the idea that Teofilo and Holy Roman Emperor are two good 2yos but not two truly outstanding 2yos, however.
DJ and Prufrock, I’m not saying you’re wrong and I’m prepared to be persuaded but you must have a reason or reasons for taking that view and neither of you has said what they are.
I don’t think you have, DJ. You say he ran a couple of pounds below his Dewhurst form. Have you plucked that figure out of thin air or do you have a reason for it? Saying he didn’t see his race out smacks of deciding he’s run below form and then seeking to justify it. It seems to me it’s just a hunch.
Presumably because it is good practice to rate horses on races rather than races on horses.
I have Rallying Cry 3 lb below his Dewhurst form by those means.
According to the race standardisation I am using, Rallying Cry would be worth a figure between 107 and 110 in the Dewhurst based on the last three years’ running of the race – with the time suggesting that a positive view was correct in this instance – and between 106 and 108 in France based on the same method.
I have gone for 110 and 107 respectively.
Is that any clearer?
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