The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Monday 15th May

Home Forums Tipping and Research Daily Lays And Plays Monday 15th May

Viewing 12 posts - 1 through 12 (of 12 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #2084
    jackane24
    Member
    • Total Posts 444

    Hoh Mike runs in the 6.00pm at Windsor. Trained by Michael Bell and ridden by Jamie Spencer, everything looks peachy, but shaped as if he wanted more than 5f on his debut, and I don’t think he’s good enough to completely outclass all his rivals. No Worries Yet put in a very bold performance at Windsor 2 weeks ago when getting within half a length of Espartano, a horse with a bright future according to his trainer. Jamie Spencer also said he was a potential Royal Ascot horse when he won on him FTO. 8/1 is huge for him.

    Home Affairs and Alcyon should easily win the 7pm and 8pm races respectively.

    O Gee also looks very interesting in the 7.30pm. With Stoute on top form, and Fallon booked, he looks a dead cert, but Deutschland once held a Derby entry with Jarvis, and has been loving the step-ups in trip.

    Bremen also looks decent opposition to Visindar tomorrow. If the latter is a short price, he may be worth taking on. Bremen has big race experience, a wonderful pedigree and unlucky not to have a Group 2 under the belt.

    #65512
    IRSHEYEZ
    Member
    • Total Posts 223

    I think Brads House looks like Value in the 5.50 at Towcester. He Will relish the good ground and Towcester is def not my favourite course for running a horse but He shud get the trip ok as he has run up to 1m 6 on the flat. The Ex Hales horse now with Henderson looks nothing special and may need further to win a race. Also good to see Jonjo with 1 in it as it makes Brads price a lot more reasonable and Jonjo’s horse came from Ron O’ Leary and his best run came in his 2nd last start where he was beat 32 lengths in a half decent novice hurdle. Brad shud handle him and there may be a bit of improvement in O’ Sheas horse.

    #65513
    Grey Desire
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1877

    Just a small bet on my old friend Take A Bow in the listed race at Winsdar.<br>Should strip fitter for his reappearance at Sandown and can reverse the form with Babadona.

    #65514
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    I wasn’t going to have a bet today, mainly because of the uncertain going causing a heap of horses to be withdrawn. Yet, I tend to agree with jackane that No Worries Yet(6.00, Windsor) has been underestimated by the market. Clear top-rated with me with the form well up to the standard of this race and worth a small interest at anything above 5/1.

    #65515
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    6:00 Windsor – 5f Novice Stakes

    Ground -> Good To Firm

    21 Karayek 9-2<br>77 Cesc 8-12<br>2   Hoh Mike 8-12<br>     Road To Recovery 8-12<br>4   Scented Present 8-12<br>12 No Worries Yet 8-9    <br>     Capannina 8-7<br>     Ella Y Rosa 8-7(3)<br>     Sagassa 8-7

    Topspeed Figures

    No Worries Yet 82<br>Scented Present 73<br>Hoh Mike 75<br>Karayel 64<br>Cesc 59

    Top Speed Top Rated – No Worries Yet

    Here are my raw ratings from each race

    Karayel 59 76   adjusted rating 76<br>Cesc 52 61   ar 65<br>Hoh Mike 83   ar [87]<br>Scented Present 73  ar 77<br>No Worries Yet 63 77  ar 84

    Of those that have run I rated Hoh Mike’s the best performance and there should be some improvement. There should also be some improvement from No Worries Yet who should be able to run Hoh Mike veryclose considering the topspeed figures.

    These are the component / adjusted rating for the newcomers.

    Road To Recovery 24-18-11-7-3-3 = 66   [70]<br>Capannina 26-20-17-8-5-5 = 81   [90]<br>Ella Y Rosa 21-12-16-7-1-3 = 60   [69]<br>Sagassa 15-9-12-5-1-2 = 44   [53]

    Normally I wouldn’t expect a newcomer to figure in what looks a good race but there are several reasons to hope that Capannina can run a good race. The filly is very nicely bred by Grand Lodge out of Mauri Moon who both were high class and showed good form over 6-9f. The trainer is respected and can get them ready first time, while breeding also suggests it will like the forecast Good/Firm ground at Windsor. The only worry is it might want this as a learning experience and might not be tough enough but the price reflects that.

                   Ground  Jockey  Distance  Ability<br>Karayel      Yes         ?            Yes       Yes<br>Cesc           Yes         ?            Yes        ?<br>Hoh Mike     ?         YesYes     Yes       YesYes<br>Road To Rec. Yes       No           ?          ?<br>Scented Pre. ?       YesYes      Yes       Yes<br>No Worries.   ?          ?             Yes      Yes<br>Capannina  YesYes   Yes           ?        Yes<br>Ella Y Rosa    Yes       Yes        Yes         ?<br>Sagassa       Yes         ?           No         No

    Hoh Mike clearly has lots going for him but is now trading at 1.99 on Betfair. He is just about the form pick and he ran very well without finding much on debut. He will definetely be thereabouts but I can’t go for it at odds on. Capannina is another that may need today for the experience but I think the trainer will have prepared this one for today and 13.0 on Betfair is good enough for me to go for. No Worries Yet may also trouble Hoh Mike if Capannina doesn’t run up to expectations.

    1pt Capannina 12/1 (Betfair)<br>1pt No Worries Yet 10.5/1 (Betfair)<br>2pts lay Karayel for a place 5/6 (Betfair)

    (Edited by FlatSeasonLover at 2:48 pm on May 15, 2006)

    #65516
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    If I was in the horse racing section I’d post my reasons why I’d go fir this one but as i’m not…

    2:20 Redcar

    1pt High Style @11.5/1 (Betfair)

    #65517
    jackane24
    Member
    • Total Posts 444

    I just don’t understand this stupid new system. Somebody explain to me this please, if we have to create a new thread and put the link into it, then what is the point of putting the link into it?

    There will still be a brand new thread, but there would just be a link in it rather than posts. It’s pathetic, and I’m going to start my Laying threads in the main room again from this evening.

    I also like Capannina in the 6.00 at Windsor, just looking today. And I am adamant that Hoh Mike wants at least 6f.

    #65518
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    We were both wrong Jack. I knew it was strong on the form book but I still maintain there was no value at 4/5.

    #65519
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Looks like the first two are pretty decent sorts considering how far they pulled clear.

    Agree with Grey Desire about Take A Bow. Very reliable, goes well at the track on the going and shouldn’t be 3/1. Home Affairs one poor run last year was on faster going at Salisbury.

    #65520
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Quote: from jackane24 on 10:39 pm on May 14, 2006

    Home Affairs and Alcyon should easily win the 7pm and 8pm races respectively.

    Well done on the 7pm one but surely Fondness is the value in the 8pm race? Alycon is 3.4 on Betfair but Fondness is 9.0 on Betfair and I felt Fondness shaped as well as Alycon did anyway with the 5lb allowance Fodness gets giving her the edge. As you’ll realise from earlier I’m a bit dodgy about going for favourites in maidens anyway.

    1pt Fondness 8/1

    #65521
    IRSHEYEZ
    Member
    • Total Posts 223

    Money was down on Morrisons and he did just hold on but he may end up quite decent. I wud leave Roger Charltons horses alone for a while as his stable is def not firin and Fondness price b4 the race reflected this. I bet Brads House today at 4.2 and laid off at 2.8 because i thought he was value at 4.2 but was too tempting to take my profit at 2.8 because that was too short.

    #65522
    jackane24
    Member
    • Total Posts 444

    I watched Hoh Mike on ATR, and the exact thing I was worried about happened. Got into a duel with another horse before the stamina kicked in.

    Popped down to Windsor for the 7pm, 7.30pm and 8pm. I think your congrats FSL on Home Affairs is a bit generous! He did win at 4/6! But thanks anyway – would have been 6/5 or so had Babodana not been taken out.

    I had Ogee in the 7.30pm, before Alcyon disappointed me big time in the 8pm. I actually had a shout for Morrison’s winner by a couple of guys there. They spoke to someone earlier who put them onto him, and pointed out that he still held a Derby entry. I looked at the form, saw Purple Moon won it, then remembered he lost at HQ last week, albeit in much better class.

    But Frankie’s booking got me in the end, plus the form with Leningrad. I’ve always been a bit sceptical with horses having run well on AW and then coming onto turf.

    How was your luck today FSL? What happened to Fondness btw?

Viewing 12 posts - 1 through 12 (of 12 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.