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Monday 11th December 2006

Home Forums Tipping and Research Daily Lays And Plays Monday 11th December 2006

Viewing 7 posts - 1 through 7 (of 7 total)
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  • #2427
    non vintagenon vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268

    Just a lay for today.

    3:10 Wolverhampton

    HAPPY AS LARRY is bred to be a sprinter and whilst he may be on a lenient mark at present, this is clearly his toughest task and is over a trip which will test his stamina to the limit (and beyond, I hope).

    Connections are almost forced to run, due to the imminent wielding of the handicapping axe and unless they are supremely confident that he will stay, he is likely not to be blasted from the front. There are plenty of tough in-form horses who will make sure he needs to stay ok in order to win and at 1/2 or thereabouts, he is one I will be taking on, mostly for the win and slightly for the place.

    Of course, he might be happy over this trip and/or might have enough in hand that it won’t be relevant, but I’m quite hopeful, especially as I would have expected him to start shorter than 9/4 last time out if connections felt they were on a good thing!

    (Of those running for me, I particularly think Gaelic Princess, Just Fly and more speculatively Black Falcon should go well – these are my placepot trio anyway)

    #68994
    SwallowCottage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1008

    NV – I hope both of us win on this race;) <br>Happy as Larry is the short priced favorite for the 3:10 at Wolv and only carries a 6lb penalty for his recent easy win but I’m not convinced he beat much in that 5 runner race and his price is no value so I prefer the chances of Peruvian Prince who should like the return to polytrack and has recently changed stables to the shrewd Richard Fahey yard. Backed e/way at 5/1

    (Edited by SwallowCottage at 10:17 am on Dec. 11, 2006)

    #68995
    cleandries
    Member
    • Total Posts 408

    12.20 Springvic 3pts<br>12.40 Armir El Jobal 3pts<br>12.50 Aviation 5pts<br>13.10 Favourite 1pt<br>13.20 Corrib Lad 9pts<br>13.45 Favourite 1pt<br>13.55 Duke Orsino 10pts<br>14.05 Money For Fun 2pts<br>14.15 Precious Bane 9pts<br>14.25 Hugo De Grez 5pts<br>15.00 Rothbury 3pts<br>15.10 Peruvian Prince 3pts<br>15.30 Gallant Girl 1pt<br>15.40 Favourite 1pt

    56pts staked…….Do a place if your NOT too sure about the heavy going….

    #68998
    zilzal
    Participant
    • Total Posts 669

    Fair dues to you, Swallow. I see you’re continuing in red hot form. Care to share the reasons you’v been so sharp of late? Can’t just be hard form-study and good luck! What kind of staking do  you use and how do you cope with losing runs and maintain discipline? Do you avoid the exchanges on purpose? I lost a week’s good work yesterday due to indiscipline.:(

    #69000
    SwallowCottage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1008

    Cheers Zilzal  —  I’m just going through a good patch like most punters do on occasions. It is due to hard form study and I’ve definitely had more than my fair share of good luck recently:)  I only bet on about 7-10 races per week and the only serious bets I make are the ones that I post on here and I use level stakes apart from when I strongly fancy a horse’s chances when I increase the stake but these do not always do better than my other selections.

    I like to look for value and bet each way. I use the exchanges when I can but it’s often difficult to get the equivalent place terms on the exchanges ( Peruvian was 2/1 ON to be placed on BF whilst the bookies equivalent was evens ). A lot of my selections get backed…I don’t know why this is.<br>I choose my selections after studying the form for 2-3 hours in the morning and make the bets and then NEVER bet again once racing has started – this helps with the discipline.

    My good run probably won’t last and I may not back another winner this year:(  There are a lot better punters on this forum than me.  

    #69002
    non vintagenon vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268

    wd Swallow – I have yet to watch the race but from reading the comments, I’ll be very surprised if Happy As Larry wants to race over anything over a mile once reassessed.

    #69003
    cleandries
    Member
    • Total Posts 408

    Yes well done swallow = yet again….

    I had what i would call a BLACK MONDAY yesterday….lol

    Anyway i was very pushed for time & i put all of my 73pts remaining profit on 1.40 Aqua Pura @ 5/2…

    i posted this up prior to the race on another forum ( gg.com) just in case any of you think i may be talking trash…..

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