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Can Mon Mome repeat last year’s tremendous victory at Aintree with odds of 100/1 & give the very talented trainer Venetia Williams another winner ?
I must admit I was very doubtful until watching the Cheltenham Gold Cup, were he came in a very credible third & also making allowances for the fact that, the distance is a mile & a quarter less than Aintree & the trainer mentioned this before the race & was more of a warm up towards the Grand National.
The big problem now is value & the bookmakers have adjusted their odds accordingly, due to the Cheltenham run & there is very little value left now with Mon Mome !
So were else is there any value in this four & a half mile stamina test contested by forty horses.
My own personal choice would be an 80/20 bet with either Niche Market at 25/1 trained by Robert Buckler, who likes 3 & a half mile plus & won last year’s Irish Grand National or Vic Venturi at 16/1 trained by Dessie Hughes, who likes three mile plus & has already won at the track.
The other main factor to consider will be the weather, as Niche Market seem’s to perform well on better ground & Vic Venturi prefer’s a softer surface.
Mark
Will find it tough off the alotted weight, but probably a good bet for a place? Same applies to Comply or Die. I’m concentrating on a shortlist of 6 including Snowy Morning, Cane Brake, Backstage and State Of Play, and if the +11st1 trend is bucked, I’d opt for Don’t Push It off 11st5.
Big fan of Cane Brake and I probably will back him but I’m very worried that he’s not won since December ’06.
Big fan of Cane Brake and I probably will back him but I’m very worried that he’s not won since December ’06.
I’ve been looking at the stats for Can Brake & the fact that yourself & rich1985 have given it a mention.
The horse seem’s to perform well in the muck & nearly all of it’s best results have come in soft or heavy ground at 3m – 3m & a quarter miles.
The big factor will be the weather for this horse & if there’s no rain forecasted over Aintree, then it would seem a difficult task, if the ground is good or firmer & over four & a half miles & the fact that the horse hasn’t won for over three years.
Mark
I’m afraid Cane Brake was scratched at today’s forfeit stage.
Well that’s of rich1985 & Zarkava’s potential selections out of the window.
Mark
Good, makes it easier for me. I did Arbor Supreme yesterday at 25s but I’m fairly sure I’ll have another 1 or even 2.
Yes indeed, still have a few left though which fit my model, Snowy Morning is increasingly becoming my main hope as his profile looks suitable.
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I already said he could after I spotted him travelling like a dream early on in the Hennessy and him being placed in the Gold Cup is hardly a minus.
He’s got a lot of weight but looking back what a snip he must have been last year. Couldn’t have won any easier.
Horse who travel well with a high relaxed cruising speed tend to carry weight better than he more excitable types. Not hard to imagine him getting picked off in the closing stages by something of alight weight but I think he’ll go very close and is amust EW for me.
He’s referring to Mon Mome.
Right, been through the latest entries.
Dooney’s Gate
Ballyfitz
Arbor Supreme
Treacleare the absolute stand-outs on the trends.
Snowy Morning, Conna Castle, Faasel and According to John do pretty well.
My worry about Dooney’s Gate is that I don’t think he stays. He won over 3m at Thurles while being held-up being Ruby in a race run 40 seconds over standard. His other 2 attempts at the trip have resulted in a 10th and 12th.
Ballyfitz makes so many mistakes with his jumping that it’s a miracle he hasn’t fallen or UR more often. If he makes it onto the 2nd circuit it’ll be miraculous.
Treacle needs 23 to come out. Hmmmm.
Conna Castle hasn’t won in 20 starts (2 years) and only won over 3 miles in PTPs.
Snowy Morning’s run in 2 Nationals before and probably isn’t good enough to win but may well get 2nd or 3rd.
Faasel’s a tricky little runner to evaluate. He was running over hurdles in the Summer and then finally appeared over fences in the Kim Muir when finishing 2nd to the very tired Ballabriggs. He’s had 1 run shy of what’s needed but that’s debatable since he had 2 runs in May, which I thought qualified as the new season? If so, that puts him on 5 runs this season and into the 4-6 barrier that almost every National has had. He needs 15 to come out.
According to John scrapes in by virtue of his 3rd 3 starts ago. He also needs 30 in front of him to come out.
In short, I’m struggling to get away from Arbor Supreme.
I have never been one for thinking i have found a good thing for The National,but i am a great believer in Course form,my main objective in the race is the thrill of having a bet riding on the back of a horse jumping and travelling and seeing how far i get!Winning is a big bonus!This years race is no different but i would say
Mon Momes
form stands out.It doesn"t worry me in the slightest that he will set off with top weight,he can carry it!
Snowy Morning
ticks all my boxes too,as does
Comply or die
! I look forward to the annual thrill like a kid in a sweet shop!
As usual TAPK has all the big prices! 
mon mome, will as always stay all day, the only thing would be its the national, anything can happen
he has been in of fantastic form of late, but is carrying more weight this time aroundI’m pretty much leagally obliged to back Mon Mome these days! He was NEVER as long a shot as 100-1 last year suggested. He’d been round the National once unscathed, that was good enough for me.
Top weight in the Peter Marsh on abysmal ground & he got over a flat spot to still have legs left at the finish.
Came from absolutely miles away to steal third in the Gold Cup.I won’t be backing anyone else this year. As someone who got put off football by constant let-downs & rained off by the cricket last year, it’s nice to be a FAN of something again!
Another thing I noticed about Mon Mome from last year; he jumps on the inside of the track and saves himself so much ground by doing so. His jumping is superb. For some reason I tend to think of him as a rather small horse but I’m not sure that he is. I also have to admit to the fact that he and Nil Desperandum [loved that horse; his death at Uttoxeter was tragic..I was sure that he was going to win the National that year] have somehow morphed into the same horse. He won the race so easily last year, no matter how many stats I throw at myself I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of him winning again. He was finishing like a train at the end of the Gold Cup; he’d probably only just got started.
moe, I think he comes across as a small horse because he tends to wander around with his head down. To me he looks like the sort of horse that hates being in the parade ring & just wants to get out there running.
Can Mon Mome repeat last year’s Aintree victory?
Yes, of course he can.
WILL
Mon Mome repeat last year’s Aintree victory?
Ah, now that’s another question….
Put it this way – I’ve done my regular four bets* in the race and, while The Momester (yes, I know no-one calls him that) isn’t one of them, I wouldn’t necessarily discourage someone from betting on him (unlike some other horses!)
*Well, OK, it was going to be six, but after getting bitchified at Cheltenham and War of Attrition and Possol both pulling out, I’ve got it back down to four.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
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