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A few weeks back elcartero asked if any member had purchased the Racing Ahead (booklet) of 20 Super Systems.
Well, it is hard to check out 20 systems all in one go but thumbing through the booklet, again, system number 11 has caught my eye and so I thought I will give it a try but with a warning of not having a clue how it will perform.
The rules are simple, look for a favourite with a price of evens to 2/1 in the betting forecast with a gap to the 2nd fav as shown from the following table: –
Favourite price . . . . 2nd Fav .
Figs. deleted as poss. breach of any copyright[/color:9k0wc1oq]
If there are any back the favourite to win.
I prefer the Odds On market to the forecast paper prices and have decided to find my favourites in this way.
Billy's Outback Shack
Monday August 23
7.00 Carlisle
Nave
13/8
WON 9/4
7.15 Windsor
Alfonso the Wise
11/8
Non Runner
(Because of a delay posting at my end Alfonso’s price has gone and best is evens)
Comment
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What to do? Advised if waiting closer to the race start and the regarded selection goes from evens plus to odds on then it becomes a NO BET. But in the case of the above winner NAVE the gap closed to joint favourites and should then by rights also become a NO BET but the bet was struck during the morning market when the gap was as required this must then be within the rules.
Billy's Outback Shack
- Total Posts 84
Hi Billion,
I suppose you’d have to either make up your mind here and now which approach to take, or road test the system until you’re satisfied that one approach is superior to the other.
In essence, it appears to come down to whose view you’re treating as definitive – the forecaster in whatever publication you’re using as your source (I buy Racing Post every day, but it’s clearly an issue for personal preference – I simply couldn’t bring myself to buy the Daily Mail, but I appreciate a lot of people trust its racing coverasge), or the market.
Either way, best of luck.
Regards,
Brian
ps By the way, I’ve got my own collection of systems, although I’ve yet to find one I could have too much faith in. Last time I checked, I’d collected about 200.
bcsim999
, good morning to you.
It is always interesting to note other folk’s values and angles and thank you for your reply.
The way I am going to approach this one is by taking a view from Odds Checker mid morning market, which as it happend got it all wrong yesterday but it still worked out quite nicely.
Your comments regarding systems I do think are quite valid and believe if there is a system which works 100% of the time someone is quietly keeping it under wraps.
Systems are fun, well that is my take on them but I have made a hobby out of trying to find the "Holy Grail" and am sure no one will ever become very rich using them.
However, I am no authority regarding the more sophisticated computerised ones and let others speak for them whilst I dabble with
eep
t
imple
tupid ideas.
Billy's Outback Shack
Morning Billion,
With all due respect, your not really running the system if you wait for the morning market.The idea behind a system like this is that the odds compiler should know more than the ordinary "Joe". If theres that much of a gap between the 1st and 2nd fav. then he/she clearly thinks that its the best horse. So if a horse is a selection and it goes money on its still a bet likewise if it drifts out to 6/1 or whatever it’s still a selection and this is where the profits, if any, are really made. How often have you seen the paper fav. win and its not in the first 2 in the betting, lots of times. The problem you had yesterday will happen quite often, ie. is the gap between the fav. and 2 fav. enough.
This is what happens with Favorite systems because you don’t know the SP until after the race.
FrankHi Billion ,
For one reason or another i have not been posting for what seems ages , anyway i hope you are well .I too remember something about this system and somewhere in my files i have figures to show that this did actually work , perhaps with a tweek in places .
Yesterday i decided to pick some out as i would of done ages ago using what i thought was the said system.
5.15 Invincable Ridge 15/8 – 4/1 won
5.30 Inside 15/8 – 10/3 placed
7.00 Nave 13/8 – 10/3 won
3.45 Island Legend 15/8 – 9/2 placed
3.30 Honest Broker 6/4 – 11/4 won
Well what can you say it did look promising and as i usually stop at a winner in most of my systems this looked even better .
I think there are 5 for today which again i would expect 3 of which to win .
Good LuckOnce again, you are quite right insomuch as my application varies from the original rules which offers two choices, use and stick with the paper betting forecast and does indicate them to be unreliable and does in fact prefer the Racing Post figures.
It then states the safeguard method to check if the morning favourite remains FAV. before the off but not betting should it have gone odds on.
My problem is I am a free thinker and of late have come to rely more and more on Odds Checker as a realty check rather than an opinion. I do believe betting forecasts are a very good filter and without doubt have an intrinsic value within any kind of system, however in the interest of transparency I thought it better to post the original rules and also how I intend to approach it leaving any forum member who may be interested as such to make up their own mind should they wish to try it out, rather than at some later time revealing,
well I did not actually do this or that etc.as an excuse for failure.
I will again say I have not applied this system before starting to post here and have not a clue how it will perform but with all my postings they do carry the very small Billion shilling.
It is interesting however to note todays selections and how I arrived at them: –
Yarmouth 3.30 HARRY PATCH 6/5 (RP fav)
WON 1/1
Yarmouth 4.00 NELSONS BOUNTY 7/4 (RP fav)
WON 5/2
Yarmouth 4.30 HAMLOOLA 11/10 (RP fav)
WON 1/2
Sedg. 2.45 Courella
Sedg. 4.15 Lois Ludwig
Sedg. 4.45 Grand Art
Kemp. 6.40 Cardinal (RP fav)All were shown in The SUN
as possibles but only those shown with a price met the system requirement.Billy's Outback Shack
mal1964
Nice to hear from you again, I thought
matron
had caught you and locked you away in Ward 7 cells.
Perhaps you could post the rules as you know them, because it looks as if yesterday was a good one.
Billy's Outback Shack
Ah…a kindred spirit….I’m also a great believer in the expertise of the spf compiler (see my posts passim) and wouldn’t presume to second-guess him. Your points are very well made and, I think, of considerable benefit to this forum.
Only yesterday was this example from the Daily Mail (yeeeees….I know!)
4.35 Hamilton SP Forecast Favourite 9/4 Eye for the Girls (Formcast Top Rated 78) Won at 11/2 (4th Favourite).
This is by no means a rare occurrence and I’ve known SP favourites in similar races to win at up to 12/1.
Well done Nedloh….a great post.Morning Billion,
With all due respect, your not really running the system if you wait for the morning market.The idea behind a system like this is that the odds compiler should know more than the ordinary "Joe". If theres that much of a gap between the 1st and 2nd fav. then he/she clearly thinks that its the best horse. So if a horse is a selection and it goes money on its still a bet likewise if it drifts out to 6/1 or whatever it’s still a selection and this is where the profits, if any, are really made. How often have you seen the paper fav. win and its not in the first 2 in the betting, lots of times. The problem you had yesterday will happen quite often, ie. is the gap between the fav. and 2 fav. enough.
This is what happens with Favorite systems because you don’t know the SP until after the race.
FrankPowered by Linux
Never will the "Ordinary Joe", odds compiler or the market ever get it right ALL of the time, there will always be occassions that can be illustrated as per the one posted by
elartero
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I will quote SECRECY (4.50 Kempton), in yesterday’s mid morning market was 4/1 and finished the winning at 15/8.
What I do think is important is consistency.
Remain faithful to your market of choice and am convinced over a time period will get it wrong as many times as it gets it correct and therefore should even itself out.
Also remain faithful to the price criteria when making your bet, meaning if your chosen market states a price but is not obtainable, such as shown as 6/4 but odds on when trying to make the bet it must be a non starter.
Have you worked this one at all
elcartero
, knowing you have the booklet and it will be interesting to have some indication of it’s prospects.
Billy's Outback Shack
Must admit, Billion that I haven’t applied this method because, as you know, I only bet on handicaps, having wasted several decades in the mistaken belief that it was possible to make money betting on non-handicaps. Its very unlikely that many handicaps would produce a selection.
However it could have some merit if the races concerned had exposed form and you went for best odds guaranteed. Probably worth checking the overnight betting forecasts on the Sporting Life website for selections the following day.Never will the "Ordinary Joe", odds compiler or the market ever get it right ALL of the time, there will always be occassions that can be illustrated as per the one posted by
elartero
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I will quote SECRECY (4.50 Kempton), in yesterday’s mid morning market was 4/1 and finished the winning at 15/8.
What I do think is important is consistency.
Remain faithful to your market of choice and am convinced over a time period will get it wrong as many times as it gets it correct and therefore should even itself out.
Also remain faithful to the price criteria when making your bet, meaning if your chosen market states a price but is not obtainable, such as shown as 6/4 but odds on when trying to make the bet it must be a non starter.
Have you worked this one at all
elcartero
, knowing you have the booklet and it will be interesting to have some indication of it’s prospects.
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Now then Now then , you are correct in what you say Billion in which you look at the forcast sp,s . I have always used the racing post and i also allow the odd couple of 10/3 instead of 7/2 , i could be wrong but i sometimes think there is little diferance anyway my picks for today would be .
3.30 HARRY PATCH 7/4 – 4/1
4.00 NELSONS BOUNTY 11/8 – 7/2
4.15 LOUIS LUDWIG 4/5 – 11/2
4.30 HAMLOOLA 13/8 – 9/2
6.40 CARDINA 6/4 – 8/1I guess we could all post our selections for this system stating which source is used and then see which proves to be the better, the result will benefit all that may be interested.
Billy's Outback Shack
Fantastic idea Billion , i was just racking my brain trying to remember the strike rate of this . i have looked high and low and i still cant find the stats i did on this last year , I will find it and post at a later day . I was wondering what type of staking plan would be best as the system does rely on a lot of faves which are not going to give us much in the way of odds.From what i can remember quite a good percentage did go off 2nd fave even though in forcast it would of been the fave ( hope you understand that ).I think this happnd yesterday twice and bothe won , interesting really .
CraigMal1964
Do as you will, if youn want to implement any kind of staking it is up to you, your method, your ideas vs my 1pt level stakes. It is all up to you even if you want to Stop At a Winner, the idea is to help us all make a profit.
Billy's Outback Shack
Selections for Wednesday 25 August 2010 (Sporting Life)
4.30 Brighton Colepeper 6/4 next 9/2…..Won 13/8
8.00 Bangor What A Scientist 13/8 next 6/1…..Won 5/2Powered by Linux
Good to see your selections up here
elcartero
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Let’s be very clear and say this is NOT a competition but simply a way to find if there is any one way better than any other of finding the best selections.
For myself I will cross reference as I have today with a morning paper betting forecast.
I will then check the mid morning market of Odds Checker to ensure there is the required gap, if so I will place my bet via the layer offering best available odds plus Best Odds Guaranteed and post them here. If the selection wins at a greater price than posted because of Best Odds Guaranteed I will show the increased profit as paid, being in keeping with the Best Odds principle.
Should the required gap ot be there but appear later it will just be my tough luck having missed it.
If you agree it will be most simple for you to keep your own record and post accordingly, as I say this is NOT a competition.
I do hope something positive comes from this even if it lasts only a short while and thanks for taking part.
Billy's Outback Shack
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