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You will be able to watch the gold cup again on the racing uk site if you look hard enough..
Kauto Star was surely shattered at Haydock being unexpectedly pushed all the way to the line by a young pretender who ran a cracker. But for fiddling the second-last, Imperial Commander would have won the race and surely Kauto will strip fitter – he was blowing very hard afterwards. I prefer not to reduce the sport to speed figures as so much happens within a race and the pace or galloping speed is dictated by many factors. It was a very good run, as the pair were a long way clear of some good horses who just couldn’t keep up, but surely after he recovered from his exertions in that season opener on soft ground, Kauto lost a few kilos but had his lung capacity extended by a small percentage. Overall though, he cannot be improving at this stage of his career, while his rival does seem to be on an upward curve and one thing may cancel out the other. Promises to be amazing – aren’t we lucky?
I feel there’s a staleness about the jumps these days that comes from total domination by horses or trainers. It was probably the same when Dessie was racing, but I was too obsessed to care or notice. Please don’t hate me for saying it; it’s just a personal opinion, but I’ve been feeling it for a while now. Best to say it while I’m in my Mrs Tourettes frame of mind.
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Not sure the Betfair was quite the test many proclaimed it (Noted slowboats Halcon Genelardais and Notre Pere were right in contention until turning in) and topspeed figures for the rest of the races don’t inspire confidence – either it was the best card ever outside the 2 Festivals, or someone at the RP has their sums wrong.
A quick check with the stopwatch also shows the race was run in 2 identical halves, again not what you’d expect from a true test, and the more I look at the race the more I’m convinced Kauto Star ran below form, rather than Imperial Commander above it.
Be interesting to see what happens Boxing Day, though it’s uncertain we’ll have the complete answer, even then.The probability is Kauto Star was below form at Haydock Reet, but I also believe Imperial Commander has improved too. How much is difficult to accertain because few (if any) of the others ran to form.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
As I pointed out in the Cheltenham thread I think he’ll be a bigger danger to Kauto in the Gold Cup than he will be here. Kauto is fine round any course when he right, but Imperial Commander loves Cheltenham…I can’t see Denman shaking him off the way he has with others…I don’t mean to speak badly about Neptune but he simply wasn’t as good a horse as IC and
Exotic Dancer was no where near right in 2008 and as we now know was probably a sick horse in 2009.With Imperial Commander and possibly Cooldine being the main dangers in 2010 it could be different a different ball game.
Getting back to the King George you have got to love these headlines. "Ruby says Kauto is better than last year" Then when you read it he never actually said that….He is as good "IF" not better isn’t quite the same.
To be honest Kauto never impressed in the King George last year but the year before he was awesome.
Like the Gold Cup this is a different race this year. We don’t know how good Deep Purple is, NTD apparently ran 48 horses in December last year…..1 won……so we can forget Imperial Commander running a poor race like last year as Ginge points out.
If the ground is good I would expect a big improvement from Alberta’s Run who was awesome on it first time out this season.
Madison Du Berlais loves it round here and you can expect a much better run from him this time.
Tom George must think an awful lot of Nacarat if he is truly the stables number one choice.
It could be he thinks Tartak may not get 3 miles I don’t know but over 2m4f he hacked up at Aintree beating Deep Purple 7 lengths with Planet of Sound and Calgary Bay well behind. That form has stood the test of time and he showed signs of coming back to his best when 2nd to Deep Purple.
Of course Kauto is the star of the show and I hope he wins in similar fashion to what he did in 2007. They will need a new roof at Kempton if he does
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Futher to the Betfair not being the test it seemed, here’s another little snippet from my hand-timings:
The last 6f of the race (From jumping the last in the back straight) was run a full 3.5 seconds faster than it was on the first circuit, an impossible situation in a truly run 3m chase.
It might seem like heresy to suggest this, given the eulogies heaped on the horse since that race, but Imperial Commander’s no certainty to even last home at Kempton, as he certainly hasn’t appeared to every other time he’s run at the distance.
That’s possibly why he’s not running in the Lexus, and he’d be a million in my book to win a Gold Cup.Maybe I should find something better to do with my time?
I’ve taken a lunge on Master Medic, and backed him at up to 180 to win (with an in-running lay in mind), and taken Hills 33/1 without the fave.
I have similar doubts to reet about Imperial Commander, (though more about his ability to act r-h, than any real concerns about stamina), and whilst Master Medic is by no means certain to stay the King George trip, he is not all that far behind the likes of Nacarat, Deep Purple and Barbers Shop on form, he jumps great, and he has to go right-handed. I think he is plenty of value at Hills price.
One thing that always perplexes me ( among other things
) is this: why do trainers persist in sending their good horses to run at right handed / left handed courses when said animal is, according to perceived wisdom, evidently (or apparently) at a disadvantage ?Imperial Commander being a prime example.
Maybe Nigel thinks Kempton will suit his horse this year – or maybe he’s simply pissing against the wind and hoping for the best ?
Whatever the reason, Imperial Commander has improved and surely he cannot run as badly as he did last year, and for my money, looks a cracking good each way bet.
Who knows, he might even win.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Futher to the Betfair not being the test it seemed, here’s another little snippet from my hand-timings:
The last 6f of the race (From jumping the last in the back straight) was run a full 3.5 seconds faster than it was on the first circuit, an impossible situation in a truly run 3m chase.
It might seem like heresy to suggest this, given the eulogies heaped on the horse since that race, but Imperial Commander’s no certainty to even last home at Kempton, as he certainly hasn’t appeared to every other time he’s run at the distance.
That’s possibly why he’s not running in the Lexus, and he’d be a million in my book to win a Gold Cup.Maybe I should find something better to do with my time?
Chuck the watch in the bin and stick to using your eyes!If Imperial commander doesn"t stay 3m,No i shall stretch it to 31/4m,then my name isn"t YOUR MAJESTY!
thm Deep Purple is 9/4 to place on Betfair,thats short! So if he does finsh 2nd to Kauto,you only get 9/4,we on the other hand are getting 8 or 9/1 depending which bookmaker you bet with in the without Kauto market!I can feel a song coming on;- "duh duh de duh,duh de duh duh de duh de duh, duh duh,duh duh!!" Oh no thats Black night,we dont want that!
What about "The Purple & Gold"?!
Have to say im very worried about Madison Du Berlais though!!
What about "The Purple & Gold"?!
Great song, the "Dancing at the Crossroads" one from ’96 was better though.
Good times for the Yellowbellies
If Wexford (by some miracle) raech a hurling semi final in the next few years maybe Martin Storey will be tempted to make a comeback!!
It wouldn’t be the first time!
Quite interested in Roll Along on a ‘without the favourite’ and/or place bet angle. Has some back class which would give him a place chance and wouldn’t be the first decent horse to improve now he is settled at NTD’s stable. 50/1 without Kauto and 20/1 a place look attractive in a race that very rarely produces a bunched finish. Could see him turning up late to take second or third (a la Kingscliffe or Albertas Run) after the principals have stretched the race out, on the final circuit.
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