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Seasons greetings to all here on TRF and a prosperous new year! I have been trying to find a bet that i could confidently put up over the Xmas period that will give us some money over this expensive time of year!I think i have found one! William Hill are betting WITHOUT Kauto Star in the King George and are still offering 1/4 odds 1st 3.Everybody knows i am an Albertas run fan and have backed him at silly prices.But i dont believe his run in the Peterborough chase was that of a horse looking for excuses,he was soundly beaten by Deep Purple who actually couldn”t have won any easier!On a strict line through a fit Albertas,Deep Purple has more than just an outside chance of upsetting Kauto star!But us fans of racing would love to see King Kauto win his 4th King George,so at 8/1 we can afford to finish 2nd to the King and still celebrate a victory for racing!I being the cautious type of gambler has backed Deep Purple e/w without Kauto,so i am still running for 4th place!At the moment Imperial Commander,Madison du berlais and Cooldine are all ahead of Deep Purple in the market,but because this is an Ante-Post market, we are guaranteed 8/1 even if a couple of those dont run,which is still a possibility.Remember,there are 1 or 2 bookmakers offering only 10/1 with Kauto running,that would would in effect pay 6/4 a place!I think the 8/1 is too big,Get on and say Merry xmas William hill!
Great spot there TAPK, absolutely cracking bet,I had not realised there was a market w/o Kauto.
Good shout TAPK.
I remember watching DEEP PURPLE win the Future Champions Chase on Scottish National and thinking he was a decent tool. I’ve not been to keen on him this season but think its time to stop denying this horses ability to cut it in his 2nd season.
Good shout again
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This is the 4th time I’ve backed Kauto Star AP at odds against for the King George. He given me 3 great Xmas presents so fingers crossed this will be lucky number 4.
Imperial Commander, Madison Du Berlais, Nacarat, Alberta’s Run Barber’s Shop and Deep Purple will al have their supporters for this bet and you could just about make a case for any of them, so where do you start.
Madison Du Berlais, Nacarat or Barber’s Shop wouldn’t be for me
I suppose you would all be expecting me to be joining in and go for Deep Purple but not this time round.
His biggest attribute is his high cruising speed and Hungtindon was tailor-made for him with PN’s going off like a scalded cat. He never looked in trouble but others soon were. I doubt if this race will be run like that and he could be the one to make the running this time.
Kauto Star doesn’t usually hang about at Kempton, Ruby at some point, maybe even as early as the 4th last will probably take Deep Purple on. No doubt Deep Purple will try to respond and that worries me as he’s very likely to burn himself up and end up out of the frame. Unless of course TAPK is correct and he has the form to beat Kauto.
What my learned friend TAPK fails to realise is he doesn’t know Aleberta’s Run like the back of his hand.
The horse is better than he’s ever been in his life and was jumping out of AP hands at Ascot but couldn’t raise a gallop behind Deep Purple. My buddy seems oblivious to the fast this horse absolutely hates ground with cut in it. Don’t be fooled by his run in the RSA he was beaten in that until everything else stopped like shot. He’s a good stone better on proper good ground and a reversal is far from out of the question.Deep Purple is an improving you chaser and could be anything but Imperial Commander has already gone through the ranks. I thought he never stayed 3 miles but NTD has explained why it may have looked that way before Haydock.
Last year nothing was going a yard from NTD’s stable but this year his horses are flying.
I had no hesitation whatsoever in backing him at 7/2 without Kauto and if the ground is proper good ground and 8 runners I will be backing Alberta’s Run, hopefuly at around 2/1 for a place on Betfair.
if the ground is proper good ground and 8 runners I will be backing Alberta’s Run, hopefuly at around 2/1 for a place on Betfair.
Learned friend Fist!This ones just for you!Back Albertas Run with William Hill "Without Kauto Star" at 12/1, yes 12/1! back him e/w,1/4 odds 1st 3,that way you have 4 places covered with the possibility of a 12/1 winner,if he finishes 4th to Kauto you still collect an even money winner!If he finishes 4th on Betfair you get nothing!if he wins on Betfair you still only get 2/1! I hope Imperial Commander does not run and they save him as a fresh horse for the Gold cup!
What my learned friend TAPK fails to realise is he doesn’t know Aleberta’s Run like the back of his hand.
The horse is better than he’s ever been in his life and was jumping out of AP hands at Ascot but couldn’t raise a gallop behind Deep Purple. My buddy seems oblivious to the fast this horse absolutely hates ground with cut in it.I am very dissapointed in your above comments!You and i both know differently,as well as the whole forum,its all down in black and white on numerous threads!
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Deep Purple was badly outpaced at one stage at Wetherby and with Nacarat, Imperial Commander and Madison Du Berlaas all likely runners there’ll be no hiding place for horses who fail to cope with the early gallop. And given that he’s not a definite starter anyway I wouldn’t be rushing to take any price about him – with or without Kauto Star.
People seem to be overlooking just how well Imperial Commander ran at Haydock (I don’t buy that it’s not Kauto’s course, but even if that is true he still trounced Madison Du Berlais) and the 7/2 about him finishing second at Kempton is ludicrously generous.
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TAPK didn’t you say: "But i dont believe his run in the Peterborough chase was that of a horse looking for excuses,he was soundly beaten by Deep Purple"
While the time recorded for the Peterborough was very good the other chases around 20 seconds slow indicated the ground was riding very much on the soft side of good to soft? The horse was most likely beat before the tape went up.
As far as your 12/1 bet is concerned I know you mean well but the ground is good to soft at best on all courses down south at the moment and the Forecast for Kempton Park is rain all this week. The chances of Jonjo even running the horse are diminishing daily. I think it makes more sense to adopt wait and see tactics….he’ll still be the same price next Monday or longer when we will have more idea what the ground is likely to be.
Agreed Fist,Albertas is a frustrating horse for the Ante-Post punter because of his ground requirements,he is defineately a place bet if like you say the ground is anything like last years!J,J,O"Neill is very keen to run as there is nothing else for him!
Deep Purple was badly outpaced at one stage at Wetherby
Media,dont think for one minute the Deep Purple we saw at Wetherby was the same horse we saw at Huntingdon,that performance in the Peterborough was a bit special,just watch the last 2 fences and the way he effortlessly goes clear!I see a rapidly improving horse here,one with an impressive set of form figures on good/soft ground!
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Deep Purple was never ‘badly outpaced’ at any stage of the Charlie Hall. He didn’t handle the bend into the straight too well (hardly surprisng), but apart from brushing through the top of the 3rd and 2nd last, he was never more than 2 lengths behind Ollie Magern for the whole of the final circuit. Furthermore, a couple of backhanders apart, he wasn’t asked a serious question at any point until the closing stages
How anyone can surmise that a horse that travelled as well as he around 2m5f at Huntingdon is going te be outpaced over 3m at Kempton escapes me completely?Having checked the long range weather forecast for Kempton,i would like to think the ground will ride on the soft side of good,unlike last year which must have rode on the good side of soft for Albertas run to have ran the race of his life! Deep Purple would ideally want good ground but he handles gd/sft no problem,he doesn"t want it soft though and that would be my only concern!Betfair touched 20"s today so i had a little more on! Blue sq,Stan james and 888sport,have all joined the betting without Kauto market!Seeking value through big prices is my main aim when i back Ante-Post as often as possible,so i would encourage anyone who fancies a flutter in the King george to bet without Kauto!The King wants to be singing "Smoke on the water" and not "Black night"!!
Remember,there are 1 or 2 bookmakers offering only 10/1 with Kauto running,that would would in effect pay 6/4 a place!I think the 8/1 is too big,Get on and say Merry xmas William hill!
It would actually pay only 8/11,not 6/4 at all!! and Deep Purple has an outstanding chance of finishing 2nd to Kauto,looking at his form figures,particularly since he started jumping fences,8/1 is my sort of price!I just hope we dont get a White Xmas,i want a Purple one!I hope Santas listening!
Paul Nicholls on racingpost.com tonight re Kauto states…""He worked very well and has come on a ton for Haydock,"
IMHO opinion this is a physical impossibility…Kauto ran so well and so fast at Haydock that it is just not possible that he has ‘come on a ton’. On reviewing the race countless times and pouring over the speed figures again and again, Kauto was right up to his very best in the betfair Chase. If PN can keep him at that level then he will win the King George but ‘coming on a ton’ just isn’t going to happen. In fact regression is a far more likely outcome given the level of his effort at Haydock. The same goes for Imperial Commander who improved by miles in the betfair, a similar level of wellbeing for both horses at Kempton would almost certainly result in a win for Kauto given his love of the course, but I fear neither will win.- Total Posts 17716
Please!~Are you trying to tell us you doing sums is more reliable than PN’s word or Ruby saying "He needed that" after the Betfair? I think not.
Kauto Star hasn’t been 100% for his first run/s of the season since 2006 when he beat Beef or Salmon.
The Betfair is no longer important enough and is merely a stepping stone to the King George. No doubt PN had him a little bit more forward this year than last. He did say he came back from his summer break looking better than ever but no way would he be working him to the bone for a minor prize. The race is there to put an edge on him, not take the edge off him.
Throw your speed figures in the bin where they belong mate and look at the facts.
October 2007 beaten by Monet Garden, November 2007 scrapes home from Exotic Dancer, King George 2007 beats Exotic Dancer by 12 lengths. November 2008 would have perhaps just beaten Snoopy Loopy had he stood up. King George 2008 he finished 79.5 lengths in front of Snoop Loopy.
As far as regression is concerned he’s been there and bounced back better than ever. He looked half cooked going to the last in the Betfair last year and his performance in the King George didn’t have a patch on the way he won the race the year before. Come the Gold Cup he came back to his very best with a performance equal to that he put up in the 2007 KG
This season despite being in need of a race he was good enough to beat the best young chaser in the country who most likely was 100% spot on like most of NTD’s have been lately.
Imperial Commander has been for some time regarded by NTD as the best horse he’s ever trained and he could give Kauto another hard race if he has improved since Haydock but as for the rest? Deep Purple has already taken 2 giant leaps up the ladder and to expect a 3rd so soon may be asking way too much of him. Alberta’s Run will need good ground just to give him a chance of a place and the rest have no chance whatsoever unless the front 3 all fall.
You say you fear neither will win. I fear you better not have a bet in the race.
One could argue that Kauto Star does not have to improve from his Haydock effort to take this.
He is quite simply a machine around Kempton and it’s hard to imagine the ground being similar to Haydock, which was never going to play to his strengths. In fact, that race doesn’t play to his strengths at all and it was purely guts and versatility that won him the race.
I keep hearing this word ‘regression’. Why? He’s only a 9YO. Next year, ten, fast approaching eleven, I could perhaps understand, but the horse should be in his prime at the moment and, again, I don’t think he would have to at his very best to beat this lot.
The Haydock race would have made him, as Paul Nicholls stated (and what I said after the race), mentally sharper. Ruby was ever so slightly niggling at him during the race and it was clear halfway that he wasn’t completely 100%.
It’s natural to be slightly pessimistic given what is at stake. We all want to see Kauto Star make history again, but are fearful of being disappointed. If he turns up, barring incident, he should win and win well.
Imperial Commander was well beaten here last year and is a much better horse left-handed. You can make an ew arguement for course winners, Madison Du Berlais, Deep Purple, Barbers Shop and Nacarat.
MDB loves nothing more than three miles on a flat track and this race looks ideal. Tenderly ridden at Haydock and laid out for this. The same can be said for Nacarat, in my opinion, but he’s not one to trust based on his two starts this term.
Conversely, you get the feeling that Evan Williams has been making plans for Deep Purple one race at a time and initially I thought this race would come too soon after Huntington. Closer inspection of his form shows that he competed four times in a little over two months at the end of last season, culminating in victory. He’s a very tough horse and is another who should feel right at home around Kempton over three miles.
The same can be said of Barbers Shop. This horse is a strong traveller with a touch of class and I can see him being given an Exotic Dancer style ride. He will not be able to match Kauto’s Kick, but can certainly run into a place.
Here’s hoping that Kauto Star can make even more history on Boxing Day. Paul Nicholls will have him primed to the second and we could see something very special. Hard to ignore Madison Du Berlais and this often underestimated chaser can run a big race, but I’m taking Deep Purple and Barbers Shop to follow the legend home.
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