Melbourne Cup 2006

[wit]

good call, deltaman.

fallon made fourth.

1st FIELDS OF OMAGH ($18-$19) Winner<br>2nd EL SEGUNDO ($3.80-$4) 0.1 len<br>3rd POMPEII RULER ($15) 0.3 len<br>4th AQUA D’AMORE ($26) 1.8 len

<br>http://www.virtualformguide.com/cgi-bin/tvf/displaynewsitem.pl?20061028zfields.txt

best regards

wit

[wit]

hi trackside

just looking at it, its tempting to conclude they got the prep wrong.  

before the race the jockey (steven king) was saying:

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><br>"What’s wrong with doing things a bit differently? Who says you can’t get a horse fit enough to win this way?

"I have ridden Fields Of Omagh in the past Cox Plates and he’s won one and just got beaten in two others so I know what is required to win the race.

"The gallops and the trackwork I have given Grey Swallow tell me he deserves his place in the field. I think the horse will run well.

"Sure the local way of doing it is to give a horse a few runs into the Cox Plate. But that does not mean there are not other ways to get horses fit," King said.

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

big gamble floored…..some are asking "first and last race in Aus ?"

best regards

wit

[Gareth Flynn]

Grey Swallow has shown himself capable of a stinker regardless of the prep – in fact he’s generally been best fresh.

[wit]

fair point – but then again Dale Sutton isn’t Dermot Weld:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/st … 22,00.html

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><br>Here is a horse that a spendthrift bought from the stables of legendary Irish trainer Dermot Weld and placed with an unknown trainer by international standards, who will attempt to win one of the great races in the world with a horse that hasn’t raced for 140 days – a feat never achieved in Cox Plate history.

Novice owner Peter Rowsthorn – a man with more money than he can count and, importantly, a sense of humour – decided to race a few horses and has spent $40million to satisfy the urge.

To achieve this, the former corporate animal plucked battling bush trainer Dale Sutton from relative obscurity to oversee $30million of training bases in Queensland and Victoria, trading as Wadham Park.

Sutton hasn’t had a metropolitan winner in Melbourne, yet alone a Group winner, but the belief he has in himself is matched by Rowsthorn.

……If we do well with Grey Swallow in the Cox Plate, that will help things greatly. All of sudden, Dale would no longer be a country trainer but bloke who knows what he is about."

Woodside Park will be operational next August and Grey Swallow will be the foundation sire.

"His value isn’t going to decrease if he runs ordinarily in the Cox Plate. It will increase if he goes well," Rowsthorn said.

"We’ll see what were going to do with him after this race. If we’re really encouraged with what he does, he may miss the next stud season.

"He’ll probably go to Dubai in March. We may race him a couple of times between now and then. He was invited to Dubai before we got him."

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<br>If one gives them the benefit of the doubt on the prep side, the only other thing is that Grey Swallow was checked at the 800 metres by Lad Of The Manor, resulting in a reprimand for the latter’s jockey for not keeping straight – but no ban since the stewards saw "contributing factors" in the interference.

i don’t know how much connections will say that affected the result though.

(something similar happened to favourite Racing To Win at 1200 metres by virtue of Miss Finland going up its inside, also resulting in a reprimand).

Rider of the second, El Segundo, was also given a reprimand and told to keep his mount straight after some shifting close to the post.

best regards

wit

[deltaman]

Wit,<br>    Without sounding like a ‘show me yours and I’ll show you mine’when do you intend to put up your shortlist for the Cup .;)

[wit]

hi deltaman

I would guess probably Sat / Sun – although the third decs are out later today, Saturday’s Saab Quality is the final hope for horses down the order to make the cut.

The winner gets automatic entry, and seems the main hope for Vanquished.

That said, at the moment I wouldn’t bet against the Hayes hat-trick.

best regards

wit

<br>edited to add:

meanwhile KF is given total charge of Yeats:

http://www.theage.com.au/news/horse-rac … 66409.html

<br>while one Aussie at least has queried special treatment for the big drawcard:

http://www.virtualformguide.com/cgi-bin … ntyour.txt

(Edited by wit at 11:53 pm on Oct. 29, 2006)

[wit]

Third decs out:

http://www.vrc.net.au/cpa/htm/htm_mcc_c … ent_id=758

and latest order of entry:

http://www.vrc.net.au/cpa/htm/htm_mcc_c … ent_id=860

Fifty still in for the 24 places, five of them Hayes’ horses.

Field finalised next Saturday evening after the Derby meeting at Flemington (winners of Saab Quality and Victoria Derby will be exempt from ballot for Melbourne Cup, though no Derby winner has run since 1998).

Nine international horses remain: Soulacroix (Cumani) has to meet the distance qualifying condition in the Saab.  Imperial Stride (Suroor) and Wunderwood (Elsworth) battling injury.

Japanese (Delta Blues, Pop Rock) reported well, as<br>too Yeats just out of quarantine.

best regards

wit

[wit]

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><br>Jamie Poulton…..trainer of Land ‘N Stars believes European horses will struggle to win if their riders attempt to beat the local runners with sit-and-sprint tactics.

"Between us, the Europeans, if we play into their hands next Tuesday, we’ll be in trouble," Poulton said.

"If none of us have the bottle to take this race on, and we all sit in and try to outsprint these guys like Tawqeet, they will do us and we will be beaten. If we try to play the Australian game, we might come up short."

Poulton wants "alien tactics" to the usual Australian style of racing to be employed in the Cup.

"The European horses are stayers, and are different from Australian stayers who are basically non-stayers who are ridden to be stayers," he said.

Poulton wants pressure put on a long way from home in the 3200-metre race. "If my horse is on the bridle halfway round, they are going too slow," he said. "We’ve got to make a sustained run on this horse.

"If we get stopped and have to quicken again, we’ll be in trouble.

"It was very obvious in the Caulfield Cup that an Australian-style of race doesn’t suit him at all and I can assure you he is not as slow as that run suggests.

"The Caulfield Cup was an eye-opener for us northern hemisphere trainers to see horses go so slowly in a grade one race."

Poulton said he would seek either Irish jockey John Egan or Kerrin McEvoy as Land ‘N Stars’ Cup rider because he said it would be asking too much of teenager Nick Ryan, his Caulfield Cup jockey, to ride him in unaccustomed upside-down fashion.

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http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/st … 22,00.html

best regards

wit

[Anonymous]

Wit<br> Many thanks for all the information.<br>It really is intriguing as to how the best horse in the race, Yeats, will be ridden. Fascinating puzzle.

[wit]

hi r h

things are certainly different:

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Of the 50 stayers left in the Cup after the third declaration on Monday, 26 will be on parade at Flemington’s Victoria Derby Day meeting on Saturday.

And 20, the entire field, will be in the $250,000 Saab Quality (2500m) with the winner granted automatic entry into the 24-strong Cup field.

Of the Saab runners, Ice Chariot (10th), Defining (19th) and Zabeat (21st) are safely in the Cup.   But Grand Zulu, who is 42nd in the order of entry, will rocket up the list to about 11th by finishing in the first three……<br><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/st … 22,00.html

<br>The other six will be recovering from the Mackinnon Stakes at 4pm when a decision will have to be made whether to meet the 5pm final declaration for the Cup  (with 7pm [UK time 8am] then being the jockey declaration deadline):

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/st … 22,00.html

they might just be able to fit the final setup into the Morning Line   ;)

best regards

wit

[wit]

Sad end: Elsworth’s Wunderwood shatters pastern in prep

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Sport/Wunder … 52642.html

[Gigginstown Man]

Counting down the days…The Derby on Sat i think that The One will turn over the fav….Was in flemington for breakfast with the stars tuesday morning…Great Morning…Fallon gave Yeats a blow out monday morning and on his way back into the paddock he said with a smile on his face"what do ye think of the melbourne cup winner boys" Cant wait…..Yeats by four lengths

[wit]

Hi GM

For the Derby, it seems quite difficult to look beyond the fav:

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><br>Efficient is a Zabeel colt out of Refused To Dance……He won the Vase in faster time than Fields Of Omagh won the Cox Plate and is considered to have the Derby at his hoof tips.

He was just as impressive in what he didn’t do after the Vase as what he did in it.

Having worked around the field to win the race by 1 1/4 lengths, he returned to the mounting yard composed and not at all out of puff.

As officials prepared for the presentation Efficient picked on the grass in the home straight. Rogerson’s winning speech was all that was keeping Efficient from nodding off.

The Derby will be his sixth start in his first preparation which began with an unlucky and controversial seventh in a Ballarat maiden on August 27. He has won all four races since.

In the Vase, jockey Michael Rodd did not have to urge the horse into the race. Efficient took it upon himself. <br><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

<br>Even David Hayes is saying so (tho’ of course  that may be a cunning bluff):

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Hayes suggested that Danever would run a race. The run in the Vase where he finished fourth, nearly five lengths off Efficient, was better than it looked.

Hayes explained that Danever did well to hang on because he ran on the pace in a race where the early tempo was quick and debilitating.

The leaders weakened but Danever didn’t.   Efficient and the second placegetter The One came off soft runs from behind.

Then he said: "But I would swap him right now for Rogie’s (Efficient)." <br><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/st … 70,00.html

As to the Cup, interesting piece from Lee Freedman:

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

There is a real expertise in travelling horses. You’ve got to get the watering and feeding right and you are always on the alert for signs of travel sickness, where fluid can lodge in the lungs.

Sheikh Hamdan and the Lindsay Park team seem to have found the right formula. Sheikh Hamdan seems to know the right horse to send and the Hayes family certainly has a good handle on how to prepare them when they arrive.

In the case of their Melbourne Cup winners Jeune and At Talaq, both horses were proven quality gallopers as they had raced in classic races in Europe before they came to Australia.

……Melbourne Cup favourite Tawqeet came through the English St Leger before coming to Australia, had one run in Adelaide in the autumn and then hit the spring carnival running.

For that reason alone, he stands head and shoulders above the other internationals as the horse to beat on Tuesday.<br><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

http://www.theage.com.au/news/horse-rac … 84197.html

<br>…which gives rise to an interesting thought given the stop-go participation of Yeats in this year’s Cup:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_s … 356546.stm

Could it possibly be that Ballydoyle is taking a leaf out of Sh Hamdan’s book, that Yeats won’t be going back to Ireland after next week, and that he’s really there to win next year’s Melbourne Cup ?

Did KF actually say Yeats was this year’s winner?  ;)  

best regards

wit

(Edited by wit at 11:22 pm on Nov. 2, 2006)

[wit]

two interesting local views on the Cup:

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><br>Bart Cummings, a Melbourne Cup legend having won it 11 times, may be without a runner on Tuesday but…thinks Hayes…..can repel the invaders on Tuesday.

"I like Hayes’s thing," Cummings says in reference to an import called Tawqeet.

"It won The Metropolitan, the Caulfield Cup and has got 55.5kg. There is nothing like winning form and he has a turn of foot, he is the one they all have to beat."

Asked about the Irish horse Yeats, to be ridden by a cocky Irishman in Kieren Fallon, who is banned from riding in the UK and US, the turf scholar replied: "How would you know? The trainer has given up, he is staying home and the jockey is calling the shots."

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

http://www.smh.com.au/news/horseracing/ … 87811.html

<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Racing Victoria handicapper Greg Carpenter, responsible for Melbourne Cup weights…..

"horses from the Caulfield Cup, like the two Japanese runners [Delta Blues and Pop Rock], Tawqeet, and Activation, in my opinion, are the leading [Melbourne Cup] chances.

"And Yeats and Geordieland, who are going straight into the race."<br><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

<br>….and at least one journo not impressed by visiting jocks:

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><br>When Better Loosen Up captured the Japan Cup the hosts were excellent losers, but a Japanese-bred taking the Big One, handled by one of their best, would be difficult to stomach.     After all, from what we have seen here, their jockeys ride more like Kamikazes, lacking the control of the Samurai.

Geordieland, the French-bred, has the services of Frankie Dettori, a wonderful, jubilant personality whose after-race choreography rates with Glen Boss’s. Regarded as one of the saddle greats, he has never brought his best to Melbourne. He has left his mark on the Cup, in all the wrong places.

And then we have Yeats, prepared by a trainer who isn’t even bothering to honour us with his presence. Yeats will be ridden by the Irish bovver boy Kieren Fallon, who looked more a throwback to the Vikings than an Irish poet in motion when he dealt with Red Oog at Moonee Valley last Saturday. Some say he shouldn’t be here because he is barred in Great Britain. Give him natural justice, by all means, as long as he abides by Australian racing law and not under the "get them before they get you" theory.

Usually a dash of Irish goes down well at any time. Three cheers and another round for Dermot Weld. At least he was a student of Banjo Paterson and took the time here to spread some Irish blarney about Vintage Crop……

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

http://www.smh.com.au/news/horseracing/ … 87823.html

best regards

wit

[wit]

Efficient justifies favouritism comfortably in Victoria Derby

– and becomes shock 3yo acceptor for the Melbourne Cup, for which now 3rd fav:

http://www.virtualformguide.com/cgi-bin … hasing.txt

<br>final Cup field (race 7, 3pm):

http://www.ozracing.net.au/cgi-bin/rsb/ … FA?State=V

and form:

http://www.rsb.net.au/PUBLISHING/DOWNLO … racenum=07

<br>best regards

wit

(Edited by wit at 9:57 am on Nov. 4, 2006)

[carvillshill]

Hi Wit<br>having a stab at Cup analysis despite the lack of proper Racing Post-like form (all lifetime starts visible, with comments in running etc).<br>Is this type of form guide available on the net? I find the potted form guide available in the papers and on the link you gave a bit sparse.<br>Despite these handicaps, I’m trying to form an opinion (surprise surprise)<br>I can’t have Yeats, he looked over the top to me at the Curragh, and it will be a feat of genius if his master trainer can pull this one off in absentia . The Aussie fav Taqweet looks no more than fairly priced with his penalties for recent wins and I’m told it’s 60 years since a 3 year old won which prompts me to discount Efficient, impressive though he was in the VRC Derby on Saturday. I’m leaning towards spitting stakes on 2 or 3 including Activation,Maybe Better and the Jap invader Pop Rock, with the invaluable local jock up. Would love to hear your vastly better informed views.<br>From my cursory analysis the percieved wisdom of needing a low draw is, to use the local vernacular, a crock of s**t
!

[wit]

hi carvill’s (and deltaman)

Others may be, but I’m not aware of any Aussie form source along the lines of  the RP site and the Racing Information Services Australia link you’ve already seen is as good as I’ve managed to find:<br>http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/<br&gt;

There’s an interesting summary runner by runner in Sunday’s SMH:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/horseracing/ … 96292.html

<br>As to the winner, I also can’t have Yeats this year.   Best horse, but this seems a couple of months too late for him.      KF has now gone from "meet the winner" to "i’m hopeful rather than confident".      If they leave Yeats in Aus and give him a Tawqeet-type prep, he’ll walk it next year, and even without the MC could earn over 3 times what he did in UK/Ireland this year, plus get a new far east / southern-hemishpere-friendly item on his stud CV rather than repeats.     And Ballydoyle was saying after the Irish leger that 2007 was his real target for  Melbourne…..      

<br>I can’t see beyond Tawqeet for the winner – has the long-term plan, has the current form, has the turn of foot, has enough ability, is trained to the moment and not an afterthought, and has the trainer:<br>http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20706995-2722,00.html

Although the trainer is now favouring Pop Rock over Delta Blues, I find the two Japanese  hard to split and think one or both may place without winning:<br>http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20706517-2722,00.html

Jamie Osborne reckons Geordieland will beat Yeats but is "not saying he’ll win" – Frankie’s on a roll but there has been concern about him managing the weight: Kerrin is available now the Godolphin runner is out.  

I’m wary of Cumani’s but even more Poulton’s – he must be there for a reason, and despite nothing shown so far, if he’s any good at long-term planning……  i’ll keep the faith and say John Egan to hit a place at a 100/1 on Land ‘ n Stars.

Efficient was a cert for Saturday, but for me too last minute for Tuesday.   His Saturday jock has to stay on Activation for weight reasons and doesn’t seem too upset by it.   That one plus the NZ horse Mandela could get into the shake up.

Nothing too earth-shattering, I’m afraid.

best regards

wit

<br>Monday build up in the Melbourne paper:

http://www.theage.com.au/sport/horseracing/

(Edited by wit at 9:47 pm on Nov. 5, 2006)

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