- This topic has 18 replies, 11 voices, and was last updated 6 years ago by
.
- Posts
Another race where I have a woeful record, but doesn’t stop me trying…..
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/85/warwick/2020-01-11/746672
There are markets formed for this, but Oddschecker haven’t got them yet.
Unusually for me, the top four in the market, are four I really like, namely….
The Conditional
Kimberlite Candy
Le Breuil
Steely AdditionI won’t waste any time chewing over them, as can’t really split them, but I suppose The Conditional off of 142 is particularly obvious.
He’s never been a horse I’ve warmed to too often, but Big River was going well when brought down last time, and the yard took this three years back. He’s hard to win with, but obvious appeal off 137.
Cross Park is another who jumps out. He’ll relish this, and he looks the pick of the prices at 20’s.
Prince of Scars is an interesting entry, as are former winners Milansbar and Impulsive Star.
Certainly no bet just now, but apart from the Top 4, I like this pair….
Big River 16’s
Crosspark 20’sBig River also engaged at Kelso on Sunday, so couldn’t possibly consider him right now for this.
I’ll take the hint, and swerve this Antepost
Still not went for Crosspark here, I’ll chew it over.
Very unusual for me in a race line this, but I’ll definitely be betting The Conditional. 9-2 actually looks fair to me, and I’ll take that if there isn’t any imminent drift.
The Conditional
I’m on The Conditional ew as well. Took some of the 5s antepost 4 places. Also taken the 50s for the National as well with cash out option if needed.
That’s 6 national bets I got now, may need to trim them down at some point
Two for me here.
I think that Captain Chaos is a very unreliable sort, but he’s also the type who I think will land a big one one of these days. I’ll take a chance that this is his time at 16-1.
Each way I will take a chance on Joueur Bresilien. I will definitely try to get bigger than 25-1 and also there should be some extra places about. Curtis is hard to predict, but Jockey is having a good season, and his confidence should be sky high.
Took 7/1 on KIMBERLITE Candy earlier in week I did ran well at Aintree and can bag a decent race like this to.
I’m very strong on The Conditional in a race that appears a really weak renewal (as they say), so I may well have my first bet since early December – a whole fiver – if I can get to a shop on time*! (If you knew me, you’d know that means that I REALLY fancy this one!)
*Yes, I am old school. I go to betting shops to bet, which is a problem as the nearest one is five miles away. I don’t have a betting app or online account, as that’s just too dangerous even for a £1 or £2 bettor like me. I get my enjoyment from solving the puzzle and watching, and can find that betting means I don’t enjoy the race as much.
If that makes me a lightweight and not worthy of my place on this board, I apologise.
Saturday’s Warwick Chase is always a good test of jumping and stamina. If I could be sure about The Conditional’s stamina, I’d make him the sole bet. But this is his first attempt at the trip on ground that is currently soft. His form since moving from Ireland has been a revelation. He won a decent race at Cheltenham and was then 2nd in the Ladbrokes Trophy (Hennessy), looking tired jumping the last but battling on well (especially when challengers reached his flank) to hold onto second. Saturday will see him try three furlongs farther than he has before, although the opposition are not in quite the same class as many of his Newbury opponents were. Also, Warwick is a much tighter, sharper track than either Cheltenham or Newbury with, arguably, fewer chances of a breather.
Le Breuil is one of my Grand National fancies. He left all previous form behind in his first attempt at marathon distances when he won the NH Chase at last year’s festival. This will be his first run since that demands similar stamina. Luca Morgan, a good 7lb claimer rides and Le Breuil should leave the shadow of his last two runs behind.
But the best value here, I think is the 12-y-o Mysteree. He’d been out of form all of 2018 making no impression in 5 outings. In February 2019 they tried blinkers for the first time and he ran a stormer in The Eider, beaten a neck by Crosspark (an old friend of this blog who sadly seems to have lost his form). Mysteree returned this season in October and skated up at Kelso over 3m2f and then ran a poor race at Aintree, which is what I think has made him too big a price here.
That run was Mysteree’s first over the Grand National fences and I think it’s worth assuming that he simply hated them. Facing those green spruce ‘walls’ after years of jumping black birch might just have left him wondering what was going on. Like Le Breuil he is guaranteed to stay and, fingers crossed, to jump round. The blinkers are on again and while there is always the chance that their effect has faded, and that contributed to the Aintree run, I am happy at the price of 14/1 to pay to find out.
Mysteree is my biggest bet as he represents best value. I’ll have a smaller bet on Le Breuil at 8/1 and then just enough on The Conditional to cover all my stakes.
The prices are all with Betvictor who offers best odds guaranteed, so there is no downside of taking these prices now. Betvictor also offer 4 places if you’d rather bet EW.
Petite Power would be my main bet here at 11-1. I was torn between him and The Conditional & Le Breuil, but at the odds I went with the O’Brien horse.
Lemons, I agree with Joueur Bresilien, and I’ve joined you with the five places ew.
Like VTC I’ve backed le breuil for the national , this isn’t a race with great depth and I’d be disappointed if he wasn’t going close here , will also play last year’s winner impulsive star , he,s not been in great form but I’m sure he,s been aimed at this , first time blinkers is also interesting to note , I’ll reverse forecast them to
I haven’t actually bet him yet for The National, but he’s a big fancy.
The fact that he’s ran over the fences is a negative for me, but other than that, I think he’s perfect, and I think the 40’s is huge.
Good chance today, and I hope he does you proud. I like Impulsive Star too.
No doubt at close of play I’ll be kicking myself for not taking that 40’s for Aintree.
Crosspark 14-1. He’s higher in the weights this year, but he’s the right type for this, so I’ll take a chance.
I’ll also go with Mysteree at 22-1. I won’t bother myself with the place money here, both are on the nose.
Not original but Kimberlite Candy for me. Hopefully the proverbial each way bet to nothing with four places to play for.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.