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I take it from 52 views none have purchased said book.
What about the likes of timeform etc
Over the years I’ve tried many of these books including Timeform 50 to follow, Dark Horses and Ahead On The Flat but none of them come close to Jon Gibbey’s Well handicapped 3yo’s. As the title suggests he lists 3yo’s who he thinks will start the season on a good handicap mark. I have used this for a few years now and it is that successful I feel a bit of a fool promoting it and not keeping it to myself. It is a goldmine. Last year if you had backed every horse listed on all their runs blindly (disregarding his advice on surface and distance) you would have had 81 winners from 396 runners and a 64pt profit to 1pt level stakes win. So far this year since the beginning of March there have been 7 horses start on 11 occasions in handicaps producing 4 winners at 100/30, 100/30, 5/1 and 6/4 producing a profit of over 6 pts to a 1p win stake. All these 4 won on their first outing and lost on their next when they were not so well handicapped. If you had not backed them on their second run when their mark went up you would have had 4 winners from 7 runs. Don’t forget these are at SP using BOG or Betfair you would have made much more.
In the book he gives stats for each trainer suggesting which trainer has his horses ready first time and which may need a run. He uses sire stats to suggest what surface and going the horse will be suited by and what their best distance will be.
The best part though is he gives his methods for finding these well handicapped horses which you can use yourself to find other horses.
You can get it from Amazon for £8 or £4 for the kindle edition, an absolute snip.
I used to buy Steve Taplin’s ‘Two Year Olds of ……..’ every year
Published over the winter it would give write ups on lots of unraced 2yo based on breeding, connections etc
Every year I’d think I was really going to follow these horses and keep tabs on them all …….. but after a couple of months when only 4 of them had run and they’d all been beaten, I lost interest
Apart from buying that I’ve never been a fan of ‘horses to follow’ type books because there’s one huge flaw in that on any given race day the author doesn’t have any idea who they’re going to be running against
Slowly away, I remember Steve Taplin never bought his books, not surprised you lost interest.
Any “horses to follow” is more likely to succeed the fewer punters (and bookmakers) know about it.
If the horses to follow average a 20% strike rate @ an average winning price of 5/1 it will show a healthy profit.
If more people punters buy and/or bookmakers react… If remaining as “good” it’ll still provide a strike rate of 20%. However – with more bets on the horse and/or bookmakers reacting the average price available falls below 4/1 and a loss is made.
Value Is EverythingThese books are a waste of time.
If anyone had genuine prospects to follow, they would keep them to themselves, rather than tell loads of people about it.
Anyone can select bred in the purple horses to follow and have some success but there are always more failures than successes and even the winners are liable to be in the hands of people who will attract cash and offer little, or no, value.
If it were as simple as buying a book, we would all be wealthy and the bookies would be bust.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Many people don’t have the time to analyse to the degree that full time professionals such as Marten do. I agree that the more popular or successful a book/article the more likely that any edge may disappear but I think it is about using such material to augment one’s own opinions and insights rather than blindly following them.
I think the Marten Julian material is among the best available, he has some fine people working with him and as well as offering great advice it is always well written and enjoyable to read.
(David)
I’ve purcashed Timeform’s Horses to Follow for the past few years and have found it useful for discovering horses I might’ve otherwise passed over. It’s definitely not going to make you rich, but it’s something good to stick in the bog for some light reading.
I’ve also ordered the Taplin book based on the above recommendation. As David mentions, I’m not someone who always has time to do extensive video study, so I like reading other people’s research (including that of Steve et al on here).
The books are good enough in the sense of reading entertainment or having spotted some that you might not have picked up on yourself during a myriad of races in a season.
It’s the idea of getting an edge and some value that I find illogical.
The other factor is that, if a reader doesn’t follow and study closely, they are not likely to get the best out of any list of horses to follow. They may end up stabbing in the dark and hurting themselves financially.
I bought a couple of the Timeform annuals back in the late 80’s, early nineties but with the internet available now I don’t even buy the Racing Post at all. Probably last bought the paper for the Red Rum memorial feature.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
For what it’s worth i was reading this forum on my holidays, and decided to buy the John Gibbeys book- purely because i was lying in the sun, and it was available on Kindle for cheap.
i like his methods to find them, it wouldn’t be a area i would focus on specifically at the start of the season and thus, i have found it useful.
I have also noticed from buying it slightly later there have been a few runners, and they are winning…hopefully that’s not a bad sign for things to come as i’ve just bought it!I have to admit these books aren’t something i follow blindly but i will follow the horses closely…
Cheers Kenh
@Troy, i have never bought his books…i’ve heard the odd good report, but that’s it.Agree with the general comments in here, they serve their purpose for a good read, but i don’t think they will make you as much money as they claim too!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Hope those who did get Well handicapped 3yo’s were on Kendergarten Kop this evening. Last outing last year second in a seller, this evening first run in a handicap easy winner at 16/1 (BF SP 23/1)
“Hope those who did get Well handicapped 3yo’s were on Kendergarten Kop this evening. Last outing last year second in a seller, this evening first run in a handicap easy winner at 16/1 (BF SP 23/1)
Smashing price, well done Ken.
Ken, i didnt follow in, as i took the patient approach, i thought it said in the book 10f plus if im not mistaken
Either way good book
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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