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Said with the intent of someone who thought it was a poor renewal but it’s hard to see on what basis he could come to such an opinion.
18 of the last 21 winners wouldn’t even get in the race this year, there is no 3yo in the race, a 3yo would have needed to be rated more than 105 to have gotten a run.
The lowest rated horse in todays race is higher than any other lowest rated horse in the previous 21 runnings and the top weight is rated 109.
Winners such as Far Ahead(82) Hugs Dancer (86) Sarawat (76) would have been miles off even getting a run these days.
Maybe Harvey is no worse than many other pundits (wish he would stop calling every other ride a "Fantastic ride" though) but I’m completely puzzled by his comments regards The Ebor.Eddie, I’m no statistician but I would have thought that to give substance to your argument you have to show not just the past winners and the lowest ratings but for a true comparison you have to include the top-rated entries from previous years. Perhaps fellow-forumite Luke Harvey is basing his thoughts on there having been a higher percentage of top-rated entries previously which, if that is the case, rather backs up his opinion.
Eddie, I’m no statistician but I would have thought that to give substance to your argument you have to show not just the past winners and the lowest ratings but for a true comparison you have to include the top-rated entries from previous years. Perhaps fellow-forumite Luke Harvey is basing his thoughts on there having been a higher percentage of top-rated entries previously which, if that is the case, rather backs up his opinion.
You rascal conundrum, I know full well you know there’s a much higher percentage of top rated entries this year than ever before
Come on Harvey,come on and explain yourself man!
Maybe the absence of a potentially top class three year old creates a perception that the race lacks quality?
No 3yo’s in the race because of it’s high quality and of course the BHA preferring weight to rating which I’ve asked Phil Smith about in his Q&A but of course that applied previously when none of the 3yo’s who won it in recent times would have even got in the race today.
When 3yo Deposki won in 91 he was rated 86, a 3yo would need to have been rated at least 20lbs higher than that to have got a run this year.In that case, I apologise Eddie. Unlike yourself, with your super dooper piece of software to hand I just have a tired, old brain that often gets confused.
It would seem therefore that Luke, as is sometimes the case, has proffered a subjective opinion rather than based on facts. Even so, I reckon his subjectivity is often one of his most endearing qualities which is why, I think, he enjoys a certain popularity amongst ATR viewers though I much prefer him commentating on National Hunt rather than Flat Racing.
"Classiest":
The top half of the Ebor have a very good standard of form at their best. But taking a look at their recent form; I have only Dangerous Midge and Dirar making it in to my top 10 in the betting.
May be that is what Luke is eluding to.Prospect Wells best at 1m4f?
Darley Sun ran an awful race in the Gold Cup.
Nanton thoroughly exposed.
Salute Him one of those over-rated Martin animals.
The Betchworth Kid has a poor win/run ratio.
Bridge Of Gold ran poorly last ime out in Dubai and won’t stay.
Sopranist ditto.
Ajaan looked a dog in the Chester Cup.Not what I like to see in the top half of a top handicap. I make their (8 horses) combined chance only 9/1.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
He’s just said "it looks like a really classy field" on ATR now with Hugh Taylor?
Annoys me when pundits say one thing then another later, Graeme Rodway in reference to the Super Sprint said on RPTV that Shoshoni Wind was a 6f horse and wouldnt have the pace for 5, goes on ATR day or two later says the horse is all speed and will enjoy 5f
He’s just said "it looks like a really classy field" on ATR now with Hugh Taylor?
I heard that Mr Wilson, a complete U turn over the period of the morning, I just wonder how he came to his initial opinion.
Obviously, Luke means it’s REALLY classy, but there’s been at least one in the last forty years which was SLIGHTLY classiER*. HTH.
* Capital letters are mine. MINE, I tell you.
Hi Eddie
Just got back from a great night at Hereford but felt a need to respond to your comments.
The Ebor is undoubtedly one of the best flat handicaps of the season with the top horse rated 109 and even the worst horse rated 94 but justifying my comments there were very few if any un-exposed players. The vast majority of the horses were either solid but classy handicappers or nearly group horses.
I interviewed Brian Meehan on ATR and he said ” Dangerous Midge (the best horse in the race ) could possibly make up into a group horse”!
So while it was a quality renewal it certainly wasn’t classy!!!!
I’m very much a ‘glass half full presenter’ and would hate to tarred with knocking good horses!!!!!!!!!Agree totally with the ratings argument, but I think this is also an issue of perception … the race did used to attract some really high quality hurdlers eg ., Sea Pigeon, Oh So Risky etc ., but in recent years the race line up appears to have adopted a very familiar look and has been dominated by useful if not top class dual purpose horses as well as a number of horses that have achieved high official ratings but have become somewhat disappointing (Darley Sun, Prospect Wells, Ajaan, The Betchworth Kid, Centennial) … as has already been stated, the trend of progressive 3 year olds winning through the late 80’s and 90’s seems to be a thing of the past as they just can’t earn a high enough rating in their fledgling careers to make the cut.
Katabatic,
Excellent effort from your horse Nawow earlier on. Another ten yards and I reckon you’d have been really celebrating yet another great performance.
Cheers
Ken- Total Posts 17716
Agree totally with the ratings argument, but I think this is also an issue of perception … the race did used to attract some really high quality hurdlers eg ., Sea Pigeon, Oh So Risky etc ., but in recent years the race line up appears to have adopted a very familiar look and has been dominated by useful if not top class dual purpose horses as well as a number of horses that have achieved high official ratings but have become somewhat disappointing (Darley Sun, Prospect Wells, Ajaan, The Betchworth Kid, Centennial) … as has already been stated, the trend of progressive 3 year olds winning through the late 80’s and 90’s seems to be a thing of the past as they just can’t earn a high enough rating in their fledgling careers to make the cut.
I’m no expert on handicaps but the Ebor does very little for me at the best of times
Anyone who has a 3yo who does have a high enough rating to get in surely has bigger fish to fry or at least easier ponds to swim in.
Sea Pigeon won this years ago but how many to a packet do you get like him………he was already a superstar wheras Overturn the fav here is only bordering on becoming one.
Had Overturn done a Sea Pigeon I doubt if Luke Harvey would have commented on the quality……..he would most likely have said what a great race it was.
The fact is he was disssapointing so all of a sudden the race lacks quality in Luke’s little mind.
The Ebor isn’t a classic so you can’t expect to find Classic horses running in it…it is what it is plain and simple…a top drawer handicap and the horses who run in it weren’t just given their ratings they earned them.
How this particualr running of it will be remembered surely depends on what Diras does in the future and not what Luke Harvey thinks.
Hi Katabatic,
I must admit my jaw dropped when you said it wasn’t the classiest Ebor you’d ever seen, I always thought class & quality was roughly the same thing although I know where you’re coming from regards the lack of unexposed types but the quality is so high in the race these days particularly this year
they can’t get a sniff, when they would have got in the race quite easily a few years ago.
Maybe the BHA will address this by giving preference in the race to rating rather than weight and let a few 3yo’s in, the race is worth more than 3 times The Melrose and about 100 grand more to the winner than a Group 3, so I’m not too sure about Fist’s bigger fish to fry.
Anyway your comments spawned an interesting discussion Katabatic and we can all move on.Well done with Nawwow by the way, that wind op seems to have done the trick, he finished like a 2yo.
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