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Just looking through Betlarges diary where drone made some comments about it and it turned up in the losing streak thread.
But scientifically speaking, it doesnt exist..right?
SHL
I was mowing the grass out the front yesterday evening when this bit of stuff walks by, she stops gives me an almighty smile and says in a sweet and innocent voice ‘do you have a strimmer that I could borrow’? me being the perfect gentleman said of course you can. So as I hand it over I give her the spill does she want any avon etc and give her a book to look at. She returns the strimmer this morning and says in an not so sweet and innocent voice ‘thanks for letting me borrow it and sorry but I’ve used up all the cord and no I don’t want any avon etc’
Now that’s unlucky……..
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Personally I think it exists, I tend to get a lot of the bad kind
Statistically speaking your going to get some form of luck at some time, if you back a horse in the next 1,000 races it’s a pretty much a guarantee that in at least 1 race you’ll get a last fence leader fall or a loose horse carry the leader out, bad luck for some people, good luck for those on the second or even third or fourth if they’ve backed Each Way. Not overly sure on the statistics I’ve used either I’d be more inclined to think luck played apart in a lot of those ‘1,000’ races.
Luck is simply a state of mind used to account for a normally statistically possible run of good or bad things happening.
In the case of "good luck" it is to "justify" the good fortune you are encountering.
In the case of "bad luck" it is again used as a justification or an excuse for why things are not going well a way of easing the impact of the natural order.
At the end of the day almost everything in life can be reduced to mathematical probability, which is all luck really is.
In the past two weeks I’ve had two deaths amongst family and friends and am expecting a third shortly – I could put that down to "bad luck" but in reality it’s just a statistical happenstance.
Luck is just a state of mind and if it makes someone feel better then let it be so.
Luck is something that exists in the part of our lives that we have no control over. Although my doctor once pointed out that sometimes things happen that seem like coincidences but do actually have an underlying common theme to them [not sure if that makes sense but don’t realy want to give examples].
Despite Paul’s eloquent argument to the contrary, not everything is reducible to base statistics. If a greyhound is baulked at the first bend, is that a statistic or a chance occurrence? If an FOBT player covers every number except one and that number comes up eight consecutive times, as I have seen happen, is that therefore saying that gaming machines are fixed? If five of TRF’s best and brightest all go for a job interview with Racing UK and all get passed over in favour of Rishi Persad, is that not down to chance?
Luck plays a huge part in many aspects of our daily lives, not just gambling.
Despite Paul’s eloquent argument to the contrary, not everything is reducible to base statistics. If a greyhound is baulked at the first bend, is that a statistic or a chance occurrence?
It’s a statistic because in x number of greyhound races, y number of greyhounds will end up getting baulked at the first bend – it isn’t that rare an occurrence.
If an FOBT player covers every number except one and that number comes up eight consecutive times, as I have seen happen, is that therefore saying that gaming machines are fixed?
He just deserves to lose for being so stupid
You could toss a coin and it comes up heads five times in a row but the chance of the next toss coming up heads is still evens.
So yes, statistically, he could lose eight times – admittedly the odds are high.
If five of TRF’s best and brightest all go for a job interview with Racing UK and all get passed over in favour of Rishi Persad, is that not down to chance?
No it’s because five of TRF’s finest probably have ugly mugs and faces better suited to radio
No it’s because five of TRF’s finest probably have ugly mugs and faces better suited to radio
And Rishi hasn’t?
There must come a point when statistical anomalies become so far-fetched that they deserve the epithet "luck" being applied. My FOBT-playing friend may have calculated that there is a one in three and a half billion chance that the roulette ball would land on any particular number eight times in a row, but wasn’t it pure bad luck that it happened to him in this particular instance?
Or, to take a racing example (far more sensibly!), let’s say that Sprinter Sacre is fifteen lengths clear and on the bridle approaching the last. From out of nowhere, a loose horse veers into his path, cannons into him and Geraghty is sent crashing to the ground. Statistically possible? Of course. Bad luck? Most definitely.
I was mowing the grass out the front yesterday evening when this bit of stuff walks by, she stops gives me an almighty smile and says in a sweet and innocent voice ‘do you have a strimmer that I could borrow’? me being the perfect gentleman said of course you can. So as I hand it over I give her the spill does she want any avon etc and give her a book to look at. She returns the strimmer this morning and says in an not so sweet and innocent voice ‘thanks for letting me borrow it and sorry but I’ve used up all the cord and no I don’t want any avon etc’
Now that’s unlucky……..
Nathan your Avon story took me back to East London when I lived there with my parents when I was a teenager and decided I needed some extra cash for clothes and nights out…I decided to take on selling Avon to my friends, but one day, feeling enterprising, I took the Books down my street and around the area to drum up some business and was seemingly out of luck until a very nice Indian lady in a Saree opened her door (on the latch) and peered out. I gave it my best shot and told her about the range and would she be interested in placing an order. Not speaking any English,I don’t think she understood a word I said, she took the book from my hands and, leaving me on the doorstep,walked of down her passage. I waited and waited for about 20 minutes thinking I would be getting a good order and how I was going to spend it.
Then,back to the front door came another member of the family, a man, who spoke a little English, he smiled a toothless smile at me and said:-
‘Oh yes we are liking very much, we would very much be liking to order 20 of these beautiful books thank you, please’
That’s when I realised my luck had run out, they wanted to order 20 Avon books for their family.. just to look at the pictures!!
I took my book from his hand, walked back up my street and threw it in the nearest bin.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Technically Paul is correct, if a little sterile in his answer.
Even the chances of getting the Jackpot on the lottery (13,983,816 combinations exist on the lottery) , and then the next draw winning the jackpot again with the same six numbers is highly improbable, but always possible.The chances are 195,547,109,921,855/1 of winning the lotto jackpot twice with the same six numbers. A lot of people would say that was lucky, Paul might say highly improbable.
Both are right.
The warmth one feels when your luck’s in and the despondency one feels when your luck’s out is unfortunately -or fortunately if one feels life wasn’t meant to be a dopamine-fuelled land-of cockaigne – the price we pay for being sentient, questioning beings…that mysterious concept, consciousness
Who am I, who are you TRF’ers and what it’s all about?
First race circa 2.00pm tomorrow
Is that all there is?
p.s. I’m reliably informed that I’m a babe magnet, though the good lady tends to have an unsettling glowing and rubicund far-away look in her eyes post exposure to Rishi and prefers to retire to bed alone, leaving me with nothing more than TRF to rock my thingy
hey-ho, if you’ve got it flaunt it buddy
The Wikipedia article on Luck is of interest
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luck
Don’t really agree that Luck is synonymous with Chance, preferring to believe that chance is an attempt to describe luck in a less intangible probabilistic manner
However, both Luck and Chance are very difficult to define dogmatically; and it’s likely they can’t be, as both are essentially philosophical concepts and therefore open to a myriad interpretations
God doesn’t play dice
Trip you should of sold them for £10 a book….
Now you tell me
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Trip, I was giving my boy a seater or a peggy or whatever it’s called these days on my bike to school as we were cycling across the park and the same woman was there walking her dog, she stops me and starts apologising again for using up all the cord from the strimmer when my boy starts laughing his head off, the dog she’s walking has only gone and peed all over my trousers..
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
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