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Lumiere will be 4/1 for the 1000 guineas after winning this race…..
Madness I know but just giving the heads up.Blackbeard to conquer the World
I like Besharah each-way at 5/1 for the Lowther. Her form is stronger and although Lumiere could be anything, 2/1 is short enough coming up in grade from a race where she seems to have beaten trees on the early evidence.
Even if she wins 5 lengths in the Lowther I wouldn’t take 4/1 for the Guineas. Nice to be on at 25/1 but Mark Johnston rarely lines up with one with a chance come 1000 Guineas day and its very easy for me to walk away from 4/1 if that is what is offered.
Lumiere has over a stone to find with Besharah and Illuminate if they both run. Illuminate seems a dubious starter sitting as she is at 6/1 for the Lowther. I reckon Besharah is an each-way bet to nothing at 5/1.
It’s quite a hike from maiden to group 2 company in one bound and it’s interesting to ponder that Sharja Queen, who was runner up to Lumiere, albeit thrashed 6 lengths, has her next engagement in a three grand maiden race at Ffos Las. You have to ask yourself what sort of beating Illuminate or Besharah would have handed out to the field Lumiere beat?
A very exciting prospect but the bookmakers are taking zero chance with her at the odds.
Besharah each way for me at 5/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
You have to ask yourself what sort of beating Illuminate or Besharah would have handed out to the field Lumiere beat?
Illuminate wins a short nose as Hughes holds on to her and does it cheeky…….
I agree regard the price Steve but being on at twice the price for the guineas than what she currently is am going to enjoy it as we all know it can go t!ts up. I’m quite excited by her visually impressive performance and she wasn’t asked much and not touch inside the final furlong. Pedigree wise I would have her well ahead of Illuminate as far as the guineas were concerned the Hannon horse looks a speedy sort and very effective on firm going like most Zoffanys have shown thus far but guineas wise I have doubts about the trip and the going is normally not on the firm side in the beginning of May but can be. I’ve expressed concerns about Johnston as he tends to run them far more than you would want for a guineas contender so I’m hoping he looks after Lumiere and doesn’t run her at every opportunity. He did train Attraction to win the guineas but even with her she met with a setback at two years otherwise she could have been overrun.
I think Johnston quite fancy’s Lumiere and she has been supplement for this race so they must have a bit of confidence behind her. I’m not touching the 2’s will just sit back and hopefully enjoy her bolt up.Blackbeard to conquer the World
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
You have to ask yourself what sort of beating Illuminate or Besharah would have handed out to the field Lumiere beat?Illuminate wins a short nose as Hughes holds on to her and does it cheeky…….
I agree regard the price Steve but being on at twice the price for the guineas than what she currently is am going to enjoy it as we all know it can go t!ts up. I’m quite excited by her visually impressive performance and she wasn’t asked much and not touch inside the final furlong. Pedigree wise I would have her well ahead of Illuminate as far as the guineas were concerned the Hannon horse looks a speedy sort and very effective on firm going like most Zoffanys have shown thus far but guineas wise I have doubts about the trip and the going is normally not on the firm side in the beginning of May but can be. I’ve expressed concerns about Johnston as he tends to run them far more than you would want for a guineas contender so I’m hoping he looks after Lumiere and doesn’t run her at every opportunity. He did train Attraction to win the guineas but even with her she met with a setback at two years otherwise she could have been overrun.
I think Johnston quite fancy’s Lumiere and she has been supplement for this race so they must have a bit of confidence behind her. I’m not touching the 2’s will just sit back and hopefully enjoy her bolt up.Johnston seems to think Lumiere will get a mile, so that might lead him to be more patient with her this year. If she were my horse I would run her in the Lowther and then one more race at 7f to bolster the belief that she will get a mile in May of next year.
With solid looking form Besharah and Illuminate set the standard and I believe Lumiere is priced at 2/1, as if she is already either slightly superior to those two fillies, or at least at the same level, rather than the reality of being a maiden winner tackling group winners.
William Haggas had a big race winner with Adaay today and I am finding it hard to find a reason not to be interested in Besharah each way at 5/1.
Good luck with the ante-post on the Guineas, it’s a good feeling being ahead of the odds but that’s normally the easier part of the equation sadly.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I was very disappointed when Lumiere was pulled out of the Princess Margaret as I thought she’d win by half the track and I’d be equally downcast if she got beat here.
As I had suspected, Illuminate does not line up here.
Lumiere has stacks of promise but I think 11/10 is a risky bet with a fair bit of improvement needed here.
I’m happy with the original each-way selection Besharah, who was actually 6/1 for a while and that was excellent value with only nine left in and no Illuminate to face again.
Lumiere’s maiden was against horses with Racing Post Ratings of 72, 81, 65, 69, 80, 64, 43 so it’s a very different ball game coming here. Subsequent runs from those who have been out again are not encouraging.
She may well be good enough and prove to be an exceptional juvenile but she’s awfully skinny and the 6/1 quote for the Guineas is nonsense, win or lose in the Lowther.
Good luck if you’re on at big odds but 6/1 is punting suicide. I think Fields Of Athenry at the same odds for the Ebor is better value all things considered.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
agree with you steve even at 9/2 i ahve to back the Haggas filly and if we get done by a superstar,then fair enough
I agree regard the price Steve but being on at twice the price for the guineas than what she currently is am going to enjoy it as we all know it can go t!ts up. I’m quite excited by her visually impressive performance and she wasn’t asked much and not touch inside the final furlong. Pedigree wise I would have her well ahead of Illuminate as far as the guineas were concerned the Hannon horse looks a speedy sort and very effective on firm going like most Zoffanys have shown thus far but guineas wise I have doubts about the trip and the going is normally not on the firm side in the beginning of May but can be. I’ve expressed concerns about Johnston as he tends to run them far more than you would want for a guineas contender so I’m hoping he looks after Lumiere and doesn’t run her at every opportunity. He did train Attraction to win the guineas but even with her she met with a setback at two years otherwise she could have been overrun.
I think Johnston quite fancy’s Lumiere and she has been supplement for this race so they must have a bit of confidence behind her. I’m not touching the 2’s will just sit back and hopefully enjoy her bolt up.Fingers crossed for our Guineas filly Nathan.
Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Nathan Hughes wrote:</div>
I agree regard the price Steve but being on at twice the price for the guineas than what she currently is am going to enjoy it as we all know it can go t!ts up. I’m quite excited by her visually impressive performance and she wasn’t asked much and not touch inside the final furlong. Pedigree wise I would have her well ahead of Illuminate as far as the guineas were concerned the Hannon horse looks a speedy sort and very effective on firm going like most Zoffanys have shown thus far but guineas wise I have doubts about the trip and the going is normally not on the firm side in the beginning of May but can be. I’ve expressed concerns about Johnston as he tends to run them far more than you would want for a guineas contender so I’m hoping he looks after Lumiere and doesn’t run her at every opportunity. He did train Attraction to win the guineas but even with her she met with a setback at two years otherwise she could have been overrun.
I think Johnston quite fancy’s Lumiere and she has been supplement for this race so they must have a bit of confidence behind her. I’m not touching the 2’s will just sit back and hopefully enjoy her bolt up.Fingers crossed for our Guineas filly Nathan.
A mug’s bet at 6/1 though surely Ginger?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A mug’s bet at 6/1 though surely Ginger?
Totally agree Steve.
Lumiere has not run since I backed her @ 25/1 immediately after debut (on “form”). So 6/1 is crazy!!! – even bearing in mind quotes made by Johnston (who is rarely so bullish). When those quotes are taken in to consideration I’d want double figures if betting now.Value Is EverythingLumiere is my banker of the meeting! Her debut win reminds me of how Kingman won his.
Will Lumiere handle the softer ground – she bounced off the good to firm at Newmarket but a lot of the top of the ground horses ran below expectations yeaterday.
A few of the others have form on good to soft so it wouldn’t surprise me if there is another upset – Easton Angel would be my tentative pick.
Again, I think it will play well to be near the pace in all races today as the tailwind is reported to be a bit stronger than it was yesterday.
Nice winner Steve.
Well done.
How many more York winners is Haggas going to have?
Value Is EverythingWell done Steve!!!
Thank you all. I am only having a bit of a giggle with the smilies.
I make observations on other tipping and advice columns just to express surprise when their logic seems awry and today was another one of those days where I looked at ATR and saw the Timeform preview for the Lowther. I nearly choked on the old Grape Nuts when I saw they didn’t have Besharah in the 1-2-3 for the race. Ticking boxes is an overused and well worn cliche but if ever a horse ticked every box, including the one for the Grape Nuts, it seemed like Besharah today.
Johnston’s Lumiere travelled well early on in the race and Besharah certainly got the call from her jockey earlier. It became apparent fairly early that Lumiere wasn’t going to find as much as first looked possible though and the Haggas filly ran on really well.
Besharah was an early call for me for the Queen Mary at 8/1 but it turned out she ran into a monster that day, in the shape of the Wesley Ward juvenile with the 4yo colt’s physique. The smart 5f horse Easton Angel got the better of her that day as well but over 6f and now on the softer ground Besharah has turned that around.
I am not sure about Besharah as a 3yo prospect, I get the feeling other will catch her up and perhaps go past her but she could be the one for the Cheveley Park if there is cut in the ground and William Haggas won that race with a similar type Rosdhu Queen a few years ago. Rosdhu Queen failed when favourite for the Fred Darling the following season and more or less sank without trace thereafter.
Lumiere was pushed out to 20/1 for the Guineas and I wouldn’t be looking to back her for that until I saw her again to see which way she goes now.
Haggas later confirmed that the Cheveley Park is the plan and Michael Dods is thinking of dropping Easton Angel to 5f next time.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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