Losing Runs

[GH]

Can anyone use this information for their staking plans ?

Please don’t expect the results to be the same – they don’t repeat each time you run the programme but give you a good indication of what to expect for various strike rates.<br>E.g. for a 40% strike rate, a losing run of exactly six losers occurred seven times in this run of 1000 bets.

<br>Number of Losing Runs observed in 1000 bets<br>                      <br>length of                           Strike Rate<br>losing run       20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70% 80%

1                     43      63      95      117    151     139    128<br>2                     25     42      57       54      53        59      20<br>3                     27     28      34       37      23          9        4<br>4                     16     21      22       14      10          7        <br>5                     15     13      12         8        2                    1<br>6                     14     11        7         8        1<br>7                       5       9        6         1                    2<br>8                       7       1        3         1        1             <br>9                       7       2        1<br>10                     7<br>11                     2         4         1<br>12                     1         2         1      1<br>13 2<br>14 1<br>15                      1        1         1<br>16                      1<br>17<br>18<br>19                                1<br>20                                2<br>21                      1<br>22<br>23                      1<br>24<br>25                      1<br>26<br>27<br>28<br>29                      1

Max Run            29      20     15      12      8        7          5<br>

[Matron]

Thanks for that GH.

Interesting to read.

Regards – Matron<br>:cool:

[GH]

I’ll try that again!

Can anyone use this information for their staking plans ?

Please don’t expect the results to be the same – they don’t repeat each time you run the programme but give you a good indication of what to expect for various strike rates.<br>E.g. for a 40% strike rate, a losing run of exactly six losers occurred seven times in this run of 1000 bets.

Number of Losing Runs observed in 1000 bets<br>                      <br>length of                           Strike Rate<br>losing run    20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%

1                  43      63      95      117    151     139    128<br>2                  25     42      57       54      53        59      20<br>3                  27     28      34       37      23          9       4<br>4                  16     21      22       14      10          7        <br>5                  15     13      12         8        2                  1<br>6                  14     11        7         8        1<br>7                    5       9        6         1                   2<br>8                    7       1        3         1        1             <br>9                    7       2        1<br>10                  7<br>11                  2       4         1<br>12                  1       2         1      1<br>13                           2<br>14                           1<br>15                   1      1         1<br>16                   1<br>17<br>18<br>19                           1<br>20                           2<br>21                   1<br>22<br>23                   1<br>24<br>25                   1<br>26<br>27<br>28<br>29                   1

Max Run         29      20     15        12        8      7        5<br>

[GH]

Hi,

In my ignorance, I didn’t realise that I had received a PM a couple of weeks ago regarding this thread – sorry.

I decided to answer it on this thread in case anyone else was interested.

The basic question was, where did I get the figures from? The figures came from an Excel programme that generated random numbers, the figures therefore should give a good indication of what losing runs to expect in a thousand bets. You will never get exactly the same results each time but  by the same token you wouldn’t expect other results to be vastly different e.g. you wouldn’t expect a losing run of 20 for a 50% strike rate in 1000 bets (although possible, extremely unlikely).

[Bricoman]

Hi GH,

Just wondering can you use the same program to predict winning runs for various strikes rates over a 1000 bets?

Regards

Bricoman

[GH]

Hi Bricoman,

It could be adapted, what were you thinking ?

Regards

[Bricoman]

Hi GH,

Nothing special, just thinking if it is a roughly accurate guide the data could be used to predict returns on Rolling doubles and trebles for a given strike rate.

I would probably find it more useful than a losing run prediction.

Regards

Bricoman

[Author]

Posts