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Just looking through tomorrow’s card for Longchamp.
There’s only one race shorter than a mile so maybe this won’t be a massive issue but I’m just wondering if anyone’s got any views on possible draw biases etc…
Timeform Groundwork states
"Results suggest that there is no strong draw bias on the straight course, though the Abbaye usually sets up towards the rail, nearest those drawn low. Low drawn runners are also on the inside on the round course, though outside of the Arc, fields are rarely big enough to make stalls position a talking point."
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This race looks trappy enough BSB. Iffraaj looks like being favourite but I think Coupe De Champe could go well being 2 from 3 over CD and only beaten a length in the other one. I’ve never really heard of the trainer so might be a nice price and if no NRs, 3 places available.
I would agree the Timeform assessment of Longchamp’s draw bias. Low numbers may have a marginal advantage around the 8f -10f trips with large fields.<br>But perhaps more importantly, it is now raining very heavily in Paris. It started about an hour ago and the forecast suggests the going will change from the current Good to G/Soft or even Soft.
I fancy Somnus who has won a Group One over seven furlongs there previously and would definately enter the calculations if ground was soft or heavy. It’s raining in Paris at present. He looked to be returning to some form last time when two lengths behind Goodricke at Haydock on good ground; quicker than ideal.
Toupie has finished in front of Coupe De Champe this season and with the trip expected to suit, I think he’s got an outside chance.<br>
Is 100/1 a sensible price for Centifolia? Or 33/1 for Cherry Mix, particularly with the going, good to soft. Barmy prices imo. Also for Shirocco and Mubtaker.
Shirocco is too big a price in my book ~ it should be a proper test tomorrow (for a change) and that will suit this horse admirably.
Yes, but the other two I mentioned seem a classic confirmation of the position of those he appear to decry vaue in favour of winning.
I don’t believe they don’t appreciate the crucial importance of value, but they are trying to point out that a horse quoted at 20/1, that really has no chcance of winning, might as well be 1000/1. The bookies of course know this, but it would give the game away, wouldn’t it.
I don’t mean that CM and C didn’t have the class, but I think the wise ones knew they weren’t up for it.
I think in a race like the Arc, a horse that has usually been a front-runner – as I think Shirocco was – is at a disadvantage, unless he stays like Westerner, perhaps!
(Edited by Grimes at 5:09 pm on Oct. 3, 2005)
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