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Long Shots! Part Deux

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  • #12366
    Gerald
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    • Total Posts 4293

    Great thread title, eh? I think I deserve an award for it. I looked up Charlie Sheen’s filmography, to make sure I put the exclamation mark in the right place.

    Major League :wink:

    I’ve come across a thread on a forum elsewhere, where someone has made about 500 points profit since last Nov/Dec from backing big-priced horses at Betfair SP. Ostensibly, it is based upon the horse’s running styles in its last three races. However, it didn’t stop him having a 119 winner (Roman Conquest) that was making its Bumper debut! I think he must take into account small stables or something. (BTW, 24Apr09 Chepstow (20Gd ,RPR122) Quite possibly the best future prospect here tonight. Seamus Mullins, trainer . I think that makes it one for the notebooks – for those who keep one.)

    By the way, he has a bank of 400 points, and losing runs of 100 are commonplace.

    Anyway, I’m going to post big-priced horses, together with a reason, and see how we go.

    Beverley 2.10 1m4f Selling H’cap
    Neon Blue is stepping up from 1m2f, and ran at Beverley 3 races ago. Has won 7 times before, and is 9 lbs lower than when winning last October.

    Beverley 2.40 2yo 5f Mdn Fillies
    This seems rather a poor race, considering it is an open (to all fillies) mdn. Moonlight Babe has been slowly away both two starts. Well-bred – her mum sold for $550,000.

    #243596
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    3.50 Beverley 1m2f H’cap

    Hurlingham

    has run some good races this year, is on a winning mark, led last time (small field though), and is wearing a first-time tongue tie.

    Pedasus

    is well h’capped, based on his debut. His (half) uncle is Fasliyev.

    4.25 Beverley 7.5f Nursery
    Not strictly a longshot, but he ain’t in the first two in the market.

    Storm Hawk

    still seems to be learning, and also seems to be a bit of a battler (Hawk Wing. :shock: ).

    5.00 Beverley 1m Amat Hcap
    Another small-priced horse (c 16/1).

    Ermine Grey

    ran well C&D penultimate start. Apparently Brotherton is quite a good jockey. Don’t usually bet in these, so this one will form part of a learning curve

    #243608
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    2.30 Salisbury 2yo 7f Mdn Auction
    Not actually putting any money on these two – just including them to keep track of them. In the same ownership.
    "

    Arkellion

    , gelded since showing next to nothing for a different trainer at Goodwood two months earlier, offered more hope this time, despite racing a little keenly. He was too inexperienced to take advantage of the inside stall, but wasn´t given a hard time once held and is open to further improvement."

    "

    Firehawk

    missed the break badly but was picking up quite well when it was all over. Related to several sprint winners, he can leave this running behind." Hmmm, is he being run over 7f just to get a good mark when dropped back in trip?

    2.20 Sandown 5f 3yo H’cap :lol: I can imagine several people saying that they wouldn’t touch this race with a bargepole.

    Mamlakati

    usually races keenly, and she is being dropped down to 5f for the first time.

    #243614
    Gerald
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    • Total Posts 4293

    6.50 Chepstow 2m2f Mdn H’cap
    Surely the race of the day.

    Trempari

    . b1. Owner-trained, so I’m hoping for a good price. Might back another horse as well, once I see what the prices are like.

    #243705
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Maxwil.

    3.25

    Couldn’t resist the price.

    Has a couple of pieces of form on Flat, Sandown & Brighton.

    Big price because been hurdling, and no recent 7f form

    Change of stable might have freshened him.

    edit: Well, that was a waste of £2. I’ll try not to make such a hasty decision in future.

    #244031
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    I was thinking it was going to be very easy keeping track of this, because there would be very few winners to calculate, so it is mainly a job of totting up the losers. Forgot that there will be the occasional non-runner as well. Ermine Grey was a non-runner, and I’m not including the Arkellion/Firehawk race as I’d said I wasn’t betting in it.

    I make it -£8 so far, to £1 units.

    It was a good job I wasn’t betting yesterday – there was only one winner above 11/1 – though I suppose only one winner is all I need.

    Because I’ve made this a betting thread, it is a duplicate or replacement of my Occasional Tilts thread, which is a bit silly really.

    I really wanted to discuss big-priced winners in general, but I suppose if it ends up turning 80/1 shots into 60/1 shots it will turn any potential profit into a loss.

    I’ll mainly be betting in jumps racing from now on.

    4.45 Bangor 3m H’cap Chase
    I don’t really fancy

    Leopold

    to win, but he is a Tail-End qualifier, because he is a big-price and I have a reasonable expectation of him being placed. [edit: Though whether I should be employing the Tail-End method at this time of year is another matter.] Spotlight has doubts because his best performances are at Fakenham, but
    Bangor – left-handed, fairly sharp track
    Fakenham – left-handed, sharp, undulating

    #244036
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    3.55 Ripon Great St Wilfrid 6f Heritage H’cap
    The low numbers seem to have a good chance, because of the ground. I like all of the Cox runners, especially Kostar, but I am restricting myself to one bet,

    Fullandby

    . A couple of pounds lower than when winning the Portland a couple of years ago. b1.

    edit: Fullandby a non-runner, so I’ve done Kostar after all.

    #244039
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    1.55 Bangor 2m4f Mdn Hdle

    Feeling Real

    . Front-runner. Was 50s earlier, but unfortunately is only trading at 25’s at the moment.

    #244118
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    -£11.00

    3.30 Southwell 3m2f H’cap Chase
    I don’t see why a horse with recent winning form is the outsider of the field.

    Copper Bay

    is 2 lbs higher than when winning in April, and has won a PtP since. Is stepping up in trip, but what is the big deal about that? Trainer must know what she’s doing.

    Edit:

    :oops: :oops: :oops: Win was actually 2008!!! Nevertheless, it won a PtP recently.

    I think I’ll go and get a cup of tea, before I look at anymore horses.

    Further edit:

    Phew, that was a lucky escape. Copper Bay is a non-runner. I feel like Dostoevsky, who got sent to Siberia instead of being executed.

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