- This topic has 36 replies, 12 voices, and was last updated 8 months, 2 weeks ago by
.
- Posts
Rosallion 5/2
Had he not missed the backend of last season would have been odds on for this
Hannon will have him as fit as a flea
Will Notable Speech have a previous run like he did last season?
Dancing Gemini will split them
Tricast nailedCharles Darwin to conquer the World
This could be a good renewal if Rosallion, Dancing Gemini, Notable Speech, Tamfana, Fallen Angel , Haatem , Sardinian Warrior etc
all line upDancing Gemmini’s form is now close to Rosallion and Notable Speech, but I wouldn’t say its as good yet. Maybe he has a fitness advantage. Won with a bit more in hand than the winning distance in the B365. But not only did Dancing Gemini have a fitness advantage at Sandown but was also getting 2 lbs from Tamfana. So there’s now a 5 lb turn around if the pair meet again here. Current 9/1 Tamfana will look big if turning up next week. That said, if the going remains on the firm side of good at Newbury I wouldn’t be surprised if she goes to France for the D’Ispahan instead. Roger Teal says he would like a sound surface for Dancing Gemini, but I am not so sure. The French Guineas second (should’ve won) came on a softish surface. Didn’t stay in the Derby on a similar surface. However, not in as good form after Epsom on a soft or firmer surface. This season he’s been in fine form on Good and Good-Soft. I would say there is very little evidence to say he is or isn’t fully effective on a firmish surface. Maybe the downturn in his form last season was more to do with form of the stable. Teal has so far been in good form this year.
Rosallion and Notable Speech have the same Official Rating. If the pair both get to Newbury (on what I’d imagine will be Good-Firm ground) I’d rate Rosallion as having the best chance. But nowhere near as much as the difference in the betting. 5/2 Rosallion and 5/1 Notable Speech. After a disappointing run on softish going in France the latter won’t run if the word “soft” is in the Newbury ground’s title, but that’s is unlikely given the forecast.
Notable Speech must be the bet at around 5/1.
Value Is EverythingHas anything come to light over why Lead Artist ran so badly on reappearance at Sandown?
Value Is EverythingGosden said he had no explanation to sandown stewards
He could hardly tell them his horse wasn’t fit…
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Persica was 40/1 not that long ago, 16’s now. Surely a quick going mile won’t play to strengths
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
will have a half decent bet on lead artist e/w @16/1, havent bet much recently but ill forgive hom his reappearance, doesnt have that much to find, ground wont be an issue, gosden in good form.
Would have to be against tamfana mainly here on this ground against the colts
Big fan of rosallion but couldnt touch him at that price
Curious to see how NS gets on as a 4yo, id be more inclined to think rosallion will have trained past him, he was very forward last season for a 3yo
Dancing gemini really shouldnt be winning this and i dont buy the form this season
Wouldnt be surprised if fallen angel ran well fto
But lead artist for me
I think Dancing Gemini will be better suited to Newbury than Sandown so I’ve upgraded that performance.
Will likely be his best opportunity for a group 1 given the time off for the others.
Slimy each way bet at 7/2.Tamfana 13-2 has a 5lb pull with Dancing Gemini, also now has the benefit of had a run.
Can’t understand why Rossa’s been jocked off Gemini in favour of Moore, surely Moore will not be able to ride at Ascot when O’Brien will probably have runners.
I’ve still got doubts about Gemini and Tamfana acting on the firm side of good. Tamfana’s excellent trainer also hasn’t hit top form this season. So the likelihood of producing their form imo makes them worth taking on at the odds.
Fallen Angel’s best form is with a bit more cut too, but the impressive Cherry Hinton was on a sounder surface which was her best up to that point. She could also have a bit of a soft lead if Presica doesn’t press on… And Fallen Angel @ 25 worth chancing the ground and fitness. Presica has been backed at massive prices in the last couple of days. Probably something to do with the possibility of a slow pace and positional advantage. But even so he seems outclassed.
Lead Artist made all at Goodwood so is another that might go forward, but he is versatile for positioning. On some of last year’s form he’s right up there with a chance and will love the ground. But why did he run so badly on reappearance. I noticed he raced with his head at an angle up the straight so possibly a physical problem. Anyway, @ 20 was worth taking that chance. Now half that, which suggests whatever the problem was it might be solved.
If Gemini, Tamfana and Angel don’t act on this surface and Lead Artist again runs poorly and there’s a reasonable (or better still a good) pace… Which are all very possible… Then the Guineas winners may well fight it out. I don’t think fitness should be a problem with either. Although the current weakness with Rosallion is a little worrying in that respect.I’ve backed Notable Speech, Lead Artist and Fallen Angel with a saver on Rosallion.
Value Is EverythingRosallion missed a lot of last year with a lung infection so I think he is too short and will need the run.
Tamfana 9-2The more I know the less I understand.
Even with the year off I’m still expecting Rosallion to murder them and if not I’ll be lumping on the QA..
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Don’t really believe it matters between June to May or November to May. I believe lung infections aren’t usually long absences, was there another reason for Rosallion being out for so long? I know he was supposed to run in the Sussex until quite late. Or did connections not think it worth coming back for just one run in the QEII?
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.