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Lizzy’s Dream – What will the BHA handicapper put her Official Rating up to?
The reason I compile my own speed ratings is to look out for horses that produce speed figures that beat my class pars and which I think are still ahead of official handicapper.
The 8.15 Wolverhampton on the 15th March was a Class 7 (0-50) handicap for 4yo+ and my class par for this grade is <b>61</b>.
When I worked out the speed figures for this race it was one of those WTF moments as Lizzy’s Dream achieved a figure of <b>71</b> which was 10lb above my class par and in the past 15 months I have only had two horses that have bettered this figure and their figures were <b>73</b> and <b>74</b>.
I have Lizzy’s Dream down as <b>22lbs+</b> above her official rating of <b>49</b> and I look forward this week to see what the Handicapper does to her after this win.
Last 3 speed figures:
15-Mar-12 Wol 5St C7Hc 1K <b> 71 </b>
24-Feb-12 Wol 5St C7Hc 1K <b> 53 </b>
20-Jan-12 Wol 5St C7Hc 1K <b> 51 </b>He has to put her up by at least <b>10lbs</b>; what do you think?
I thought this thread was about the Queen’s obvious ploy to get Barber Shop nicely handicapped for the 2013 Grand National!
Up 6 is the standard for wining one of these races, which should see her on 55 and in the middle of class 6 hcap fields.
The time (both wins) wasn’t great and it beat fields of out of form trees by not much and nearly 3 lengths latest, none of whom have shown anything since, though it’s not been long.
It could be a hidden horse if you ignore the first 2 runs (fibresand) and the next (mile) and maybe the next run was just a workout, but I wouldn’t have it on my list to follow.
Will probably rack up a sequence now, spose I’ll have to flag it just to see what happens
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