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Derby Trial 2007

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Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 17 total)
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  • #6822
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    An interesting renewal, what struck me was the lack of confirmed front runners in this. By my calculation only Dubai’s Touch and Dream Lodge are proven from the front so I wouldn;t be surprised if this proved quite muddling. Grand Passion is a standish dish around here and looks sure to give his running but he looks to have little room for manoevre under a penalty. Dansant has proved a revelation since switched to all-weather and travels so well he should not be inconvenienced by the drop in trip. However I can’t help but feel he’ll be given plenty to do by Spencer and that could leave him vulnerable if they crawl.

    If they do crawl I can see Dubai’s Touch going well. He’s won all 3 times he’s run in listed company, including on the surface and this represents a drop in class. Arguably has stamina to prove but this shouldn;t be a test and there are plenty of 10f performers in his pedigree to suggest he may even be better at this trip.

    #145708
    LetsGetRacing
    Member
    • Total Posts 1147

    I haven’t looked at the race yet, but if Dansant is in the same form as when winning last time out at Kempton he’s got to be hard to beat.

    Now, having looked at the race, I’m sure he’s going to be hard to beat, though whether I’d be tempted by the forecast 7/4 with Spencer up I don’t know.

    I’d heard Gerard Butler mention that Bonus was running on the same card on ATR earlier in the week, but see that he’s again got Hayley Turner riding and has been handed the 1 box. As much as I like Hayley she’s had an absolue nightmare on the horse on his last two outings, and Evens and Odds looks a decent bet at 5/1.

    #145713
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Not a race I’ll be betting in, but I couldn’t have Dansant, particularly at the forecast 7/4.
    Though he may have travelled well at Kempton, both races were run at a very strong pace, the first a course record and the latter only half a second behind it, over 2 furlongs further and on a slower surface.
    Undoubtedly he is improving rapidly, but it would still an amazing achievement for him to step down from a win at the full St Leger distance to probably the easiest 10f in the country, and all in the space of 6 months.
    Agree with LGR that Evens and Odds may well give Bonus the slip though!

    #145721
    Maxilon 5
    Member
    • Total Posts 2432

    If they crawl, DJ, then I would be tempted to have a bet on Fajr. Superb course record and as he hasn’t run over this distance since his debut, we don’t know how he’ll handle it. Sri Diamond has been trained for the Winter Derby and after last years misfortune, then it would be a nice story if he were to win it.

    Agreed that Evens and Odds is potentially the best bet of the day, now they’ve found his trip.

    #145723
    Charlie D
    Member
    • Total Posts 500

    Not a race i’ll be betting in either.

    I do find Farj’s participation in this race fascinating though and look forward to seeing how he goes on here

    #145749
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Interesting thoughts regarding Evens and Odds. I just wondered whether fibresand was also a factor in his improvement rather than just the drop in trup and switch to front running.

    I’ll be watching the first 2 races closely to see if they continue to swing wide into the straight. If they do, then the 1 box isn’t going to be the nightmare draw that it could have been and with lots of pace up front, I certainly think Bonus is likely to get the race run to suit. I’d want 9/4 though to tempt me.

    #145779
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Wouldn’t have thought it was just the surface, DJ. 2 of his 3 highest ratings prior to his latest saunter were scored at Lingfield.
    Strikes me as a horse that has been tanking in all his races. Since they put the blinkers on he’s probably been worse and not lasting home, until they finally dropped him back to 6f.
    The good pace he’s likely to set won’t do Bonus any harm either, and it looks a fairly safe forecast in my book.

    #145781
    thedarkknight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1299

    Can’t have Evens and Odds at all at the price – he has never convinced around here over further and the way he won at Southwell didn’t suggest to me that he would be particularly effective back here. Bonus looks rock solid but will need luck. I think Ebraam is a serious contender and Kostar is an interesting one at a price. He goes well fresh and will be suited by a strongly run race. I would prefer him at Wolves, but at 25s he is worth a poke.

    In the Derby trial Dansant looks a very poor price to me over this trip. He hacked up at Kempton, but it wasnt a strong race and im not sure a likely slowly run race at Lingfield over 10f will suit. Baylini looks a fantastic price at 16-1. She was caught wide and hampered last time, and her fillies allowance brings her right into the mix in race that features very few confirmed CD specialists.

    #145805
    Colin Little
    Member
    • Total Posts 338

    In the sprint, I’m thinking that Maltese Falcon may show up better than in recent races. He has been badly drawn the last couple of times, but when he gets his optimum conditions & a decent draw around here, he can go well, even in this grade. Today from stall six, with a few hold-up horses inside him, there’s a chance he could get to the inside & race prominently. There’s also a good chance he will just set up the race for the likes of Ebraam, Bonus etc., but if things do fall for MF, he will stretch them at least.

    #145807
    thedarkknight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1299

    You can never rule out the Falcon around here.

    Can anyone explain why Alfresco is a shorter price than Vortex in the last? Beats me….

    #145818
    Colin Little
    Member
    • Total Posts 338

    Alfresco is improving, & he has run fast, but he’s never had to race against the class of horse he is up aginst today. Personally, I thought it was a match between Jack Sullivan & Vortex. You could find reasons for those two blowing out, both been away in Dubai, travelling etc., & I suppose it could be a messy race.

    #145819
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    TDK

    I take it you’re not responsible for the match bet 4/6 Evens and Odds, 11/10 Ebraam then!

    #145821
    thedarkknight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1299

    I agree Colin. Alfresco could win it if the big two ran below form, but I wouldnt touch him at 7-2 to do so.

    I can’t understand why Vortex is consistently opposed in the market almost every time he runs….

    #145825
    thedarkknight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1299

    TDK

    I take it you’re not responsible for the match bet 4/6 Evens and Odds, 11/10 Ebraam then!

    I didn’t do the match bets, no. 8/11, evs now :D

    #145826
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Alfresco very much had the race run to suit last time I thought> Even if Monkey Glas goes as fast as last time, it’s likely to play into the hands of Vortex and Jack Sullivan as much as Alfresco. 5/1 on betfair is far too big.

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