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Neptune Collonges 11/8
The Listener 7/2
War of Attrition 5/1
Exotic Dancer 5/1
Snowy Morning 16/1
Glenfinn Captain 20/1
Slim Pickings 25/1
Cane Brake 33/1
Light on the Broom 100/1A great race over in Ireland tomorrow where Paul Nicholls sends over Gold Cup third Neptune Collonges to fight it out with some very decent sorts.
War of Attirition will get better ground than last time out and, in contrast, The Listener might not get the ground he needs to go best.
Trawling through Exotic Dancers’ form it shows that his best form does indeed come on the soft ground and with Mr McCoy travelling over to parter the horse I’ve got great confidence that Exotic Dancers’ time for a big win may just be on the horizion.
Neptune Collonges may just be that little less race sharp that his competitors here and whilst Paul Nicholls may have him up to speed I’d rather decline backing Neptune Collonges at the prices available (11/8).
I’m not the greatest fan of The Listener and can’t see him winning this. I’m with Paul Keeley of the RP on this one in that I can see three going past him in this and that is Neptune Collonges (even without a run in him), Exotic Dancer and War of Attrition.
The latter two are superb value for me at 11/2 and 5/1 respectively with preference for Exotic Dancer.[/list]
Its a trappy looking race.
I’m another just siding with Exotic Dancer. Looks likely to be a good pace and that will suit him as will the trip and the ground. If he runs to his very best form he’ll be difficult to beat. Some people have called him names rather like they did with Kauto before Kempton. His Old Roan chase run suggests all the old ability is still there and at 6/1 with Paddy Power he’s a good price.
That said others have very strong cases too. I can’t fancy The Listener in this class of race but War Of Attrition and Neptune Collonges have obvious great chances.
Promises to be a very exciting race.
I’m with you Halfway in wanting to take Neptune Collonges on. He’s too short for his first run of the season against seasoned grade 1 campaigners. He’s two from two over here but both those wins were at Punchestown and Leopardstown at Christmas is a much different challenge. I understand why he’s favourite but he’s been beaten first time out the last two seasons and I have a suspicion that he’s a slightly better horse going right handed.
I’m a huge fan of War Of Attrition and I will be letting my heart rule my head and having some of the magic sign’s 5/1. He’s never won the Lexus but he’s never had his ground in the race. It’s drying out all the time and we are set to have another dry night tonight. It was bottomless in the Durkan and he just couldn’t jump or travel with his normal fluency in that ground. The extra half mile and the better ground tomorrow will see an improved performance. I wouldn’t have any concerns about the jockey change either. It’s tough on Davy but Paul has a good record in the race and he’s been riding out of his skin recently.
I’m sidin with PN’s charge here despte the fact Exotic Dancer is strongly fancied to win this.
ED was obviosly way below his best in the Gold Cup and if you forget Haydock you may be forgiven for thinking he is as good as ever.
My worry with him is we really have seen the best of him. He never at anytime looked a threat to Kauto Star in last years King George.
If anything his Gold Cup run should have put him straight for Aintree but he flopped miserably again and finished almost 15 lengths behind kauto again.
In the Betfair he should have surely beat Snoopy Loopy who was beaten 40 lengths or more by Kauto in the King George. Damn sure he would have 18 months ago.
He may be catching pigeons at home and working better than ever but I think he’s definitely deteriorating when he sets foot on the course. I really think Jonjo would need to pull a rabbit out his hat to win this one
Neptune Collonges was without a doubt flattered by how close he got to KS in the Gold Cup but there was nothing dodgy about the way he won he Guiness Gold Cup at the tail end of the season.. He may not be a Denman but he can gallop and I think he’ll take all the beating in the world.
ED won’t appreciate too strong gallop and the The Listener might also struggle as he might not last out if the pace is fierce.
I like WOA but he might think he has gone into orbit in this company. He would need to have retained all his best form to compete in this and it’s a fair bet he hasn’t quite got the same ability he had a couple of year back.
He also has a mountain to climb to reverse a 7 lengths deficit with The Listener.the extra 1/2 mile surely won’t be that much in is favour?I am hoping NC turns he screw early on the final circuit,. If he does I can’t see him getting beat
No one seems too confident, so I’ve had £2 on Glenfinn Captain. At least he is on the up.
Its a trappy looking race.
I’m another just siding with Exotic Dancer. Looks likely to be a good pace and that will suit him as will the trip and the ground. If he runs to his very best form he’ll be difficult to beat. Some people have called him names rather like they did with Kauto before Kempton. His Old Roan chase run suggests all the old ability is still there and at 6/1 with Paddy Power he’s a good price.
That said others have very strong cases too. I can’t fancy The Listener in this class of race but War Of Attrition and Neptune Collonges have obvious great chances.
Promises to be a very exciting race.
Ian
The Listener has won in this class of race three times. Exotic Dancer has the grand total of zero wins in this class. I know the argument is that ED has been up against Kauto Star most of the time but the fact is that when Kauto has seemed to underperform Exotic Dancer hasn’t taken advantage. I could forgive the Gold Cup as Denman was in the field but as Fists says if Kauto Star was deemed to have underperformed at Aintree then Exotic Dancer should have won. Same scenario with Haydock this year. I just think he has been overrated due to his runs against KS. Having said that he does have his conditions tomorrow (if going is reported yeilding to soft)so if he is ever to win a Grade 1 tomorrow should be his day. The Listener I think is two for two against War Of Attrition (both on Heavy ground) so his form stands up with him although it might not be soft enough for him. War Of Attrition will go better on this ground and tomorrow should show what he is capable of after his injury. I have a worry with Neptunes Collonges on softer ground, if the going were good I don’t think you could look beyond him. A race to watch for me as I can find a reason or two not to back any of the front four and if one of the others won it would be a surprise.
ED won’t appreciate too strong gallop and the The Listener might also struggle as he might not last out if the pace is fierce.
Fists
Why wont ED appreciate a strong gallop, wasn’t the reason for his poor jumping at Haydock so say because of the slow pace ? Also I think The Listener sometimes benefits from a strong pace on slow ground. I know a lot of people thought he was going a stride to quick LTO however but for his bad mistake he may well have prevailed and I think the sooner he gets the others at it the better. It’s probably academic tomorrow as it probably wont be soft enough for him.
Neptune Collonges is 9-12 on soft and heavy ground- he loves it.
He also likes a small field as he’s inclined to belt one now and again.
I don’t think he’s got a significant right-hand bias- he’s won 3 times the other way and just seems to have run more the other way around. To me he’s the best horse in the race and the most likely winner but isn’t value at 11/8. I’d be against the Listener who is inclined to jump right, especially on better ground.
I don’t fancy Exotic Dancer who seems to have lost the winning habit.
War Of Attrition is the closest I’ve come to a bet but I’m going to watch (I’m going tomorrow)Exotic Dancer would be a much deserved winner of this race for me.
Neptune may just need the run and is almost going to be having a 3rd Guiness Gold Cup as his main target although he is the class horse in the race.
I cannot have the listener as he should have stayed with Sally Alner who did a fine job with him.
As much as I am a fan of War of Attrition, I just think he is a better horse in the spring. I think Glenfinn Captain has shown much improvement this season, and could run into a place.
JohnJ.
- Total Posts 17716
I wouldn’t believe for one second that PN would take the trouble and expense to send Neptune Collonges to Ireland half-cooked, and those backing against him on that score are surely whistling in the wind?
The trip might be a little short of his best on the drying ground, but I’m sure Ruby will be alive to that and ride him appropriately. On his last 2 runs of last season, he looks bound to have these for breakfast.I think with Neptune setting out the pace, War Of Attrition could be his biggest danger, and have him as my bet of the weekend.
Off a good gallop over three miles – there are few better than ED and I really hope he gets a decent pace this time.
He was all over the place at Haydock and didn’t settle or jump. I can’t actually recall a performance in the last couple of years where he’s completely settled. For him to finish as close as he did last time out, says alot for how well he is. A bigger field would also help but the pace of the race is more important. I just hope someone makes it a truly run affair as he’ll surely win with the aid of one. Are you listening, The Listener?
yes, its time for the listener again. i am sure, he will run a big race, as he has his ideal conditions. the ground is fine, the field not too big, and equally important: he knows his conquerors very well, which might be an advantage, tactics-wise…so, good luck nick and daryl, i will be cheering for you!!
Its a trappy looking race.
I’m another just siding with Exotic Dancer. Looks likely to be a good pace and that will suit him as will the trip and the ground. If he runs to his very best form he’ll be difficult to beat. Some people have called him names rather like they did with Kauto before Kempton. His Old Roan chase run suggests all the old ability is still there and at 6/1 with Paddy Power he’s a good price.
That said others have very strong cases too. I can’t fancy The Listener in this class of race but War Of Attrition and Neptune Collonges have obvious great chances.
Promises to be a very exciting race.
Ian
The Listener has won in this class of race three times. Exotic Dancer has the grand total of zero wins in this class. I know the argument is that ED has been up against Kauto Star most of the time but the fact is that when Kauto has seemed to underperform Exotic Dancer hasn’t taken advantage. I could forgive the Gold Cup as Denman was in the field but as Fists says if Kauto Star was deemed to have underperformed at Aintree then Exotic Dancer should have won. Same scenario with Haydock this year. I just think he has been overrated due to his runs against KS. Having said that he does have his conditions tomorrow (if going is reported yeilding to soft)so if he is ever to win a Grade 1 tomorrow should be his day. The Listener I think is two for two against War Of Attrition (both on Heavy ground) so his form stands up with him although it might not be soft enough for him. War Of Attrition will go better on this ground and tomorrow should show what he is capable of after his injury. I have a worry with Neptunes Collonges on softer ground, if the going were good I don’t think you could look beyond him. A race to watch for me as I can find a reason or two not to back any of the front four and if one of the others won it would be a surprise.
The Listener has won small field races against the likes of Beef Or Salmon though. He hasn’t beaten a horse as good as War Of Attrition, Exotic Dancer or Neptune Collonges.
He has only one way of running and he’ll set the race up for something else I can’t see him making all to win this.
Still, I’ve been wrong before many time ……………………. .
PS! Fist – The suggestion that Exotic Dancer wouldn’t want a fast pace – Where the hell have you got that from mate? Its exactly what he does need surely?
comon nipper………… bin told fightingfit n ready to go, he went over xmas eve i think n bin workin well over there….
as long as he comes home safe, but i reckon he will win 100%, well lets hope im not eatin my words…. nippers fab lol…. c,monnnnnnnnnnnn x - Total Posts 17716
Big prize or not, I’m very much of the opinion that Neptune Collonges is a horse who needs his first run (this is a tougher reappearance than in each of the last two or three seasons, but he’s hardly been racing against trees). He’s still a danger this afternoon, but is worth taking on. I’m not a huge fan of Exotic Dancer and don’t agree that War of Attrition is anything like the horse he once was, so I can only summise that The Listener is the likeliest winner.
His jumping against Noland wasn’t great at times, and it might have been that the trip was on the sharp side, but he still performed with great credit and beat the reopposing WOA on merit. I see no reason why that form should be reversed, with conditions almost ideal for Nick Mitchell’s grey.
The 11/2 currently available is crazy.
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