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I reckon this could be a huge pointer to finding out just how good this Flemenstar chap actually is. Disregarding potential non-runners it looks to be a real crack renewal. There’s the proposition of a rematch with Sir Des Champs, although I’d hope that Willie will send him to Kempton to find the potentially better ground. Gigginstown have a couple of other runners in the race as well so that looks on the cards at this stage.
Despite his age I’d make Tidal Bay a massive player in this. No one over the age of 9 has won this before, but this lad looks to be at the peak of his powers and Paul Nicholls has worked absolute wonders with him to get him back on the straight and narrow on the racecourse. His 2nd off top weight in the Hennessy looks top notch form, and a similar run much surely see him go close here. He, like Flemenstar(and most of those declared in all honesty), would love the muck as well as he loves to get his toe in. I wouldn’t mind taking the Casey horse on one more time before hopping on the bandwagon so the 5/1 knocking about for Tidal Bay will do me
I’d also like to give a quick mention to one of my old favourites Pandorama. He’s still declared at this stage but I’d expect a win against this calibre of horse to be beyond him after such a layoff. I’d just like to see a decent run as when on form there are few horses better on soft ground.
There’s the proposition of a rematch with Sir Des Champs, although I’d hope that Willie will send him to Kempton to find the potentially better ground.
Well there goes that theory
I see
Weapons Amnesty
not entered
Like you Boz, I hope
Sir Des Champs
goes to Kempton, soft ground or not, he’s got a great chance imo.
I’m also a big
Pandorama
fan, if it wasn’t for running him in the 2011 Gold Cup he would probably have another Lexus in the bag, and most certainly an Irish Hennessy. At his best he is a beast on soft ground. However, I think he’ll be up against it here, first time out after a long lay off. I hope he runs well and then goes for the Irish Hennessy, which I imagine is the main aim this season.
Personally I don’t think
Bog Warrior
will run. I’d say Tony Martin will find a nice graded race for him somewhere before stepping back into Grade 1 company.
Rubi Light
will probably run in the Dial-A-Bet, and
Quito De La Roque
hasn’t been the same horse since winning in Down Royal.
China Rock
and
Midnight Chase
aren’t good enough imo.
That leaves
Flemenstar
,
Tidal Bay
and
Hidden Cyclone
. Hidden Cyclone has done nothing wrong but needs to improve again against what are currently two of the best staying chasers around. Tidal Bay will be held up no doubt and I can see him flying past horses on the run from the back straight to the stands but will Flenemstar be gone
I think so 
Unless of course
Sir Des Champs
runs, in which case I reserve the right to switch horses
Tidal Bay will be held up no doubt and I can see him flying past horses on the run from the back straight to the stands but will Flenemstar be gone
I think so Ruby may slightly dull down the hold up tactics after he was seemingly produced a bit late in the Hennessy. Against a speedier sort in Flemenstar I can’t imagine him giving him that much of a head start.
Very difficult to add much to Thehorsemouth’s excellent review. Hidden Cyclone would be of more interest if the stable suddenly rediscovered its form, which has been poor for a long time now.
There are no stand out entries for Gigginstown on 26th which may leave the coast clear for Sir Des Champs and Davy Russell to go to Kempton.
I too expect Bog Warrior to swerve this one and take up his other entry, and wouldn’t be surprised if First Lieutenant is the first Gigginstown horse and may be good enough to fight for minor money, behind Flemenstar and Tidal Bay.
anyone know where sir des champs is intended to run yet?
vf
Lexus. If there is a Long Run by 10 lengths bet around, I’ll grab it.
I’d love to see Flemenstar win this, but Nicholls has Tidal Bay in great shape, Ruby on board, I can see him arriving late.
Don’t personally see anything in Sir Des Champs to suggest he will reverse form with Flemenstar…..even with the extra half a mile…..was too easy last time for my liking and can’t see it…..
Flemenstar, a penalty kick and comfortable winner from a staying on Tidal Bay with SDC plodding on in 3rd.
Setting up a mouthwatering Gold Cup clash between Bobs Worth and Flemenstar……
Long Run and Flemenstar were my two for the festive season. I have a funny feeling Tidal Bay won’t be involved and I think Sir Des Champs may well be put in his place, and any doubt regarding who is the better horse will be put to bed for keeps tomorrow. 6/4 will do for me and we could have a new favourite for the Gold Cup in the aftermath.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
flemenstar for me he should stay i dont think it will be easy though sdc will be on the premises he should come on for his run the last time cant have tidal bay nicholls has done a great job with him but cant see him getting close to big 2
A cracking race. At the prices I’m happy to take a chance on China Rock – 80 to win and 8 to place (Betfair).
He ran the best race of his career last time, his tongue-tie ‘debut’; he wears one tomorrow and at the price it’s worth chancing it will do the same job as last time.
Good luck
JoeIf you have to have a bet there really is only one option here.
Tidal Bay’s run against Bobs Worth is by far the best form on offer. Even at his age he seems to be improving and to boot he is the most certain stayer. Trainer has a great record with his Irish raiders. Despite all that he remains third favourite.
I thought Sir Des Champs was pretty disappointing on his seasonal debut and I not convinced he will suddenly be a better horse over the longer trip. Perhaps at this stage he is a little overrated. Although the style was impressive at Cheltenham not sure how much substance there was to it and previously it had looked as if he would have had plenty on his plate to see off Knockfierna. Not sure if very testing ground is his bag either.
A fantastic race in prospect, much better than the King George in my opinion.
Flemenstar
is a worthy favourite after his demolition job of Sir Des Champs last time out. The question on everyone’s lips is will he stay three miles against top class opposition. He’s been imperious over 2m and 2m 4f and this is the next step on a path that leads to the Gold Cup. His main assets are a high cruising speed and quick, accurate jumping. In the past he’s either led or raced handy and been sent on early to put the race to bed. Tomorrow I think he’ll be ridden with a bit more restraint and won’t hit the front until they turn into the straight. If he stays the trip he should win. He’ll be finely tuned after his win in the Durkan whereas
Sir Des Champs
will probably come on again from this. That horse will be coming hard at Flemenstar after the last and I don’t think he’ll be beaten by 4 lengths again.
From a selfish perspective if Flemenstar gets beaten well that’s my Gold Cup bet down the drain, so from an ante post point of view the best possible result for me would Flemenstar driven out to win by 2 from Sir Des Champs. The problem is I think Sir Des Champs will beat him tomorrow and beat him by a few lengths.
It’s not just a two horse race though.
Tidal Bay
ran what was possibly a career best in the Hennessy and another run up to that level will see him in the frame. The conditions of the race should suit perfectly and I wouldn’t put anyone off an each way bet at 5/1. In another year
Hidden Cyclone
would be the most interesting contender in the race. A lightly raced sort who’s been going about his business quietly, it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise in the world were he to win.
First ‘Ryanair’ Lieutenant
will run a decent race no doubt but a combination of the ground and meeting better horses will find him out imo. He has bigger days ahead of him. It’s great to see
Pandorama
back on the track. It’s a pity he was injured as at his peak he’d probably be a match for these on this ground. I’d love to see
Quito De La Roque
run well but he has to bounce back big time to feature. I think
China Rock
and particularly
Midnight Chase
will be outclassed.
Verdict: SIR DES CHAMPS (just)
Lexus Chase
I was very impressed with
Flemenstar
last time, a top class racehorse. But at 3 miles on stamina sapping going, with other pace setters in there – at 6/4 I am opposing him. 32% 85/40
Sir Des Champs
was outpaced by Flemenstar at 2 1/2 miles, looked like being beaten out of sight at one point but stayed on. 3 miles should suit him a lot more than Flemenstar. At around 11/4 is worthy of at least a saver. 30% 9/4
Don’t shoot me! I’ve backed an 11 year old Timeform squiggle horse.
Tidal Bay
hasn’t done anything wrong this season and from what connections are saying is a happier, better horse this term. Certainly looked that way in the Hennessey. Comes out the best horse at the weights there, better than the Gold Cup favourite. If you told me a year ago I would be backing Tidal Bay to win any race, let alone a Grade 1, I’d have laughed my head off. However, this race may be run to suit. 20% 4/1
Hennessey 4th
First Lieutenent
is the other main bet. It may look to some as if he was outstayed at Newbury; but as I said after the race, he’d done best of those up with a fast pace there. So may be better than finishing positions indicate. If the prominent runners don’t (once again) go off too quickly – could surprise some people. 20-something/1 on betfair is too big to ignore. 7% 13/1
My other saver is Joe’s tip
China Rock
, taken 59/1. First time tongue tie worked the oracle on his final start last season in the Punchestown Gold Cup on similar ground to this. If fit for his reappearance could run far better than his odds indicate. One thing that stopped me from making him a main bet was the fact he may need to race prominently. 3% 33/1
Hidden Cyclone
is improving but needs to find a good deal more to win this. Not proven at this trip either. Prolific winner, but well placed up to now. Even current betfair price of 14/1 doesn’t look generous to me. 4% 25/1
Pandorama
is a good horse at his best, but has been off so long it’s difficult to know what ability he still posesses and if he can show it tomorrow. 1.5% 66/1
Quito De La Roque
didn’t run well at Aintree and even though should be suited by conditions and how the race is run – it’s difficult to see him good enough to actually win. 2% 50/1
Midnight Chase
is a marvelous racehorse, I hope he’s seen in the Grand National this year, that’s his race. Not up to this and may be taken on up front. 0.5% 200/1
Advice:
Biggest Main bet
Tidal Bay @ 5/1
Smaller Main bet (but to win most)
First Lieutenent @ 24/1
Saver
Sir Des Champs @ 11/4
Saver
China Rock @ 59/1
Value Is EverythingI am sweet on Tidal Bay in this as my blog suggests, His Hennessy run was for me the best i have seen him in a long while, and as mentioned already 11 year old winning this would be a first, but this 11 year old is thriving with every run and if on the premises two out he could give the big two something to think about on the run in.
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