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Interesting that Coral bookmakers have the big two 6/4 jt favourites for the Gold Cup.
Maybe they think Denman has more improvement in him.
The official handicapper seems to think so, and I read also that Tony McCoy was most taken with the big horse’s performance in Ireland.
If they met tomorrow, I would definitely be on Kauto Star, but come Cheltenham and with the possibilty of sticky ground, Denman’s stamina and relentless galloping style could win the day. What a dilemma, eh ?
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
IF Mullins has ironed out Quel Esprit’s jumping then he’s going to be a serious horse for staying chases. His fall at Cheltenham reminded me of Nick Dundee given how well he was going.
Rubi Light could be a very interesting horse too if he stays three miles.
Take some horse to beat Pandorama if there’s cut in the ground. I won’t be opposing him if he runs.
IF Mullins has ironed out Quel Esprit’s jumping then he’s going to be a serious horse for staying chases. His fall at Cheltenham reminded me of Nick Dundee given how well he was going.
Rubi Light could be a very interesting horse too if he stays three miles.
I was hoping Quel Esprit would apppear amongst the Hennessy entries (Newbury)…is the Lexus definitely the plan IC?
He hasn’t enjoyed much luck in big races culminating in that unfortunate mishap at Punchestown but agree he is potential top horse and a possible Gold Cup outsider (with cut).I’m hearing rumours that Pandorama is out for the season.
Nice reappearance from Quel Esprit on Saturday. Mickey mouse race but not a semblance of a mistake which was good to see.
Could be right IC I’m told someone from PP said so on Twitter.
I gotta join that thing!
Sad!
Didn’t PN say this was Denman’s target?
If so I might just have a quid or 2 on him. He might still be way too good for them over this trip on a much easier course than Cheltenham.
That hill kills him these days, I think it’s a wise move sending him for this.
3 miles around Leopardstown at Christmas is about a tough a slog as there is in these isles.
This has Quito s name written all over it his jumping is one of the best I ve seen this year apart from( kauto stars at haydock) it’s all about the jumping as kauto proved. Can’t really be risking any on quel espirit he’s not quite got it yet Quito to be unbeaten this season hope he stays fit and graces the fences at Cheltenham.
:shock:
3 miles around Leopardstown at Christmas is about a tough a slog as there is in these isles.
Be a lot damn tougher if Denman runs and it’s still not Cheltenham
.Coral’s go out on a limb at 15/8 Quito De La Roque for this VC and Bet365 7/4 but the rest see him as a 6/4 shot.
I distinctly remember the much more talented and speedier Pandorama being 7/2 for this to beat Money Trix Joncol etc last season.
I could see our resident pricing expert Ginger having a field day on this race.
Quito De La Roque may well win this if it turns out to be a slog but more often or not it’s won by a horse like The Listner who had plenty of toe as well as stamina. Pandorama who markedly quickened up turning for home when he won, Exotic Dancer What A Freind and Beef or Salmon all had a fair bit of speed about them. Best Mate and Denman were just pure class.
If Sizing Europe stayed 3 miles Quito De La Roque would have been beaten a furlong last time.
Rubi Light is a different ball game he has bundles of speed and if he stays which I am sure he will Quito De La Roque is so slow he won’t get within 50 hundred yards of him.
Without a moments hesitation I took the biggest prices I could get he. Rubi Light has next to nothing to beat and looks a stone wall certainty to win this.
Rubi Light (Nap)
Coral’s go out on a limb at 15/8 Quito De La Roque for this VC and Bet365 7/4 but the rest see him as a 6/4 shot.
I distinctly remember the much more talented and speedier Pandorama being 7/2 for this to beat Money Trix Joncol etc last season.
I could see our resident pricing expert Ginger having a field day on this race.
Quito De La Roque may well win this if it turns out to be a slog but more often or not it’s won by a horse like The Listner who had plenty of toe as well as stamina. Pandorama who markedly quickened up turning for home when he won, Exotic Dancer What A Freind and Beef or Salmon all had a fair bit of speed about them. Best Mate and Denman were just pure class.
If Sizing Europe stayed 3 miles Quito De La Roque would have been beaten a furlong last time.
Rubi Light is a different ball game he has bundles of speed and if he stays which I am sure he will Quito De La Roque is so slow he won’t get within 50 hundred yards of him.
Without a moments hesitation I took the biggest prices I could get he. Rubi Light has next to nothing to beat and looks a stone wall certainty to win this.
Rubi Light (Nap)
I agree with you H.
This is what I posted on my thread soon after Rubi Light won last time."Yes, there’s a stamina doubt about Rubi Light, but is in my opinion over-played. Quito De La Roque and Rubi Light seem to be of similar ability, and it’s only staying power making the difference. There should not be as much between the two as the market suggests. Quito in my opinion does not have double the chance of Rubi. Having said that, I might save on Quito nearer the off".
Took 5/1 Rubi Light and have just saved on Quito De La Roque @ 15/8. Those two prices add up to 51.5%, a combined chance of around 20/21. In my opinion it is at least a 60% (fair 4/6) if not 67% (fair 12) chance one of those two will win this.
Haven’t noticed much change since the market opened up, although 5/1 Rubi has now gone. It’s interesting Quito is 6/4 with six bookmakers. Taking the mark up from that 6/4 (60 – 2 or 3.5 at most = 38% (13/8) or 36.5% (7/4)). Those six bookmakers believe Quito has a fair 13/8 or at best 7/4 chance of winning. ie
Six bookmakers odds compilers
believe Corals price of 15/8 is
value
.
Joncol seems to only win poor Grade 1’s, best on very soft ground and going right handed.
Noland isn’t as good these days and has had physical problems.
Magnanimity is interesting, probably the best value of the outsiders. Good run in a poor RSA, but will want a severe test at this trip.
Boston’s Angel is under a cloud, but might come back if Jessie Harrington gets in full swing. Shouldn’t be good enough anyway.
Synchronised hopefully goes for the Welsh National. Not quick enough.
Cooldine is a shadow of the RSA winner.
China Rock has been injured since his good form and won’t want it too soft.
Value Is EverythingI think people are in danger of taking Quito De La Roque’s last run at face value. He looked unbelievably slow, but there’s no way he was himself that day imo. That wasn’t the same Quito De La Roque that won at Punchestown last year.
However, I do think that even at his best here, Rubi Light could beat him. The way a lot of the Irish races are run does not suit Quito: slow run races with sprint finishes. He got caught out in the Fort Leney last year when Bostons Angel had just got too far ahead of him.
Cheltenham will be a different ball game as they’ll be racing from a long way out. For that reason I think the Gold Cup will suit him much better. That being said, if he’s improved like I hope he has from Down Royal he is the one to beat.
Just to merge two threads on the one race…
Hurdygurdyman wrote:
Coral’s go out on a limb at 15/8 Quito De La Roque for this VC and Bet365 7/4 but the rest see him as a 6/4 shot.
I distinctly remember the much more talented and speedier Pandorama being 7/2 for this to beat Money Trix Joncol etc last season.
I could see our resident pricing expert Ginger having a field day on this race.
Quito De La Roque may well win this if it turns out to be a slog but more often or not it’s won by a horse like The Listner who had plenty of toe as well as stamina. Pandorama who markedly quickened up turning for home when he won, Exotic Dancer What A Freind and Beef or Salmon all had a fair bit of speed about them. Best Mate and Denman were just pure class.
If Sizing Europe stayed 3 miles Quito De La Roque would have been beaten a furlong last time.
Rubi Light is a different ball game he has bundles of speed and if he stays which I am sure he will Quito De La Roque is so slow he won’t get within 50 hundred yards of him.
Without a moments hesitation I took the biggest prices I could get he. Rubi Light has next to nothing to beat and looks a stone wall certainty to win this.
Rubi Light (Nap)
Gingertipster Wrote:
I agree with you H and THM.
This is what I posted on my thread soon after Rubi Light won last time."Yes, there’s a stamina doubt about Rubi Light, but is in my opinion over-played. Quito De La Roque and Rubi Light seem to be of similar ability, and it’s only staying power making the difference. There should not be as much between the two as the market suggests. Quito in my opinion does not have double the chance of Rubi. Having said that, I might save on Quito nearer the off".
Took 5/1 Rubi Light and have just saved on Quito De La Roque @ 15/8. Those two prices add up to 51.5%, a combined chance of around 20/21. In my opinion it is at least a 60% (fair 4/6) if not 67% (fair 12) chance one of those two will win this.
Haven’t noticed much change since the market opened up, although 5/1 Rubi has now gone. It’s interesting Quito is 6/4 with six bookmakers. Taking the mark up from that 6/4 (60 – 2 or 3.5 at most = 38% (13/8) or 36.5% (7/4)). Those six bookmakers believe Quito has a fair 13/8 or at best 7/4 chance of winning. ie Six bookmakers odds compilers believe Corals price of 15/8 is value.
Joncol seems to only win poor Grade 1’s, best on very soft ground and going right handed.
Noland isn’t as good these days and has had physical problems.
Magnanimity is interesting, probably the best value of the outsiders. Good run in a poor RSA, but will want a severe test at this trip.
Boston’s Angel is under a cloud, but might come back if Jessie Harrington gets in full swing. Shouldn’t be good enough anyway.
Synchronised hopefully goes for the Welsh National. Not quick enough.
Cooldine is a shadow of the RSA winner.
China Rock has been injured since his good form and won’t want it too soft.
Value Is Everything
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