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should never ignore Ferdy Murphy when he takes a horse over to Ireland – apart from his horses our success rate in Irish races isn’t very good, is it [eg Punchestown]…
Charlie D
That’s typical of the bullshit Segal trots out week in week out. There’s no hype around a 2/5 shot in a race like the Lexus after he’s won the Hennessy as he liked off a mark of 161.
I hope, and expect, Denman to win with authority.
However, I’m surprised nobody has mentioned the fact that this horse has never travelled or raced outside of this country before. As we have seen, horses display far inferior / superior form when travelling across the Irish Sea.
The best example in recent years has been Beef Or Salmon, whos Irish form doesn’t translate away from his homeland. The Listener also shows much improved form when racing in Ireland.
Denman is also the least experienced horse in a decent field, which also represents a step up in class. Taking everything into consideration, I would be very wary of Denman at Cheltenham if he were to win well.
There is actually a fair amount of value on offer. You can make an arguement for every horse quoted at double figures to clinch second spot.
I hope, and expect, Denman to win with authority.
However, I’m surprised nobody has mentioned the fact that this horse has never travelled or raced outside of this country before. As we have seen, horses display far inferior / superior form when travelling across the Irish Sea.
The best example in recent years has been Beef Or Salmon, whos Irish form doesn’t translate away from his homeland. The Listener also shows much improved form when racing in Ireland.
Denman is also the least experienced horse in a decent field, which also represents a step up in class. Taking everything into consideration, I would be very wary of Denman at Cheltenham if he were to win well.
There is actually a fair amount of value on offer. You can make an arguement for every horse quoted at double figures to clinch second spot.
Actually, I’ve just remembered…Denman was a former Irish Point-to-Pointer.
I’m sitting here now ready and waiting.
Come on Denman Kauto has set the standard now lets see what you can do.
Can’t believe Beef Or Salmon is 14/1 huge price even if the ground is probably as fast as he’d like it.
Well impressive enough from Denman but its not going to have Kauto Star supporters quaking in their boots. If Denman is going to beat the great horse he will have to be ridden a bit differently because he’ll just give Kauto a lead front running like that and will be a sitting duck.
It was a good performance from Denman and one which entitles him to go for any Gold Cup with a chance but so far he’s done nothing to suggest he’ll shake up the great one.
Mmm….fairly impressive performance. Looked as though he would have to work harder turning in, but won cosily in the end.
I was impressed with his jumping and his ability to stay on under pressure – he really picked up again when challenged.
He looks vulnerable to a horse with a turn of foot – a horse called Kauto Star comes to mind.
Wasn’t it a wonderful race to watch – a fascinating dual between Denman and The Listener. We all got the result we had hoped for. This will keep the Denman vs Kauto debate raging on ’til Cheltenham.
*EDIT* Great performance from Mossbank – a race full of promise.
I’d say he won with plenty in hand….but he wont get close to Kauto unless he improves another 8lb.
Given that Ruby set such a modest pace, he was never going to do anything other than what he did. Perfectly good win from Denman, but to beat Kauto Star he will have to make the race more of a test than he did today.
It was disappointing that The Listener wasn’t ridden with a bit more aggression. I agree that it would have been difficult for Denman to win really impressively in these circumstances but he clearly has quite a bit to find with Kauto Star and, for me, with Exotic Dancer.
Fully agree with TDK, the gallop he set and the race conditions were never going to allow him to look anything more than workmanlike and he did all he could. Will certainly need to make the Gold Cup more of a test.
Doesn’t look as though Beef or Salmon is quick enough for 3m these days. Ran just like he did at Haydock, plugging on after it looked like he’d struggle to get involved. Perhaps a tilt at an Irish National and then honurable retirement for one of the greatest chasers of the last 30 years.
Why sprint finish on a horse that looks like it’ll stay longer than mother in law
Thought it was a weird ride from Ruby tbh
Not quite as authoritative as I thought it would be, but nonetheless, Denman won well off a slow early pace, which didn’t really suit his strong galloping style. He jumped superbly well and although this performance will not have connections of Kauto Star worried in the least, I’m convinced with the faster pace that is almost guaranteed in the Gold Cup, and with softer ground, he will still make them all go.
That said, I am sure Ruby Walsh will now definitely choose Kauto Star. I think that was always his intention anyway.
I will wait to the day of the Gold Cup before deciding which of the Nicholls horses will be carrying my money.
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Agree he has something to find on the book Gus, but he still won easily in a race that wouldnt have suited him.
They just need to set their stall out from the start of the Gold Cup and make it a real test. That will play to Denman’s strengths and expose any weakness in Kauto Star’s stamina.
Workmanlike rather than flash is how I would describe his performance. He did enough.
It’s hard to compare the tactics of a small field race like this afternoons Lexus with a Gold Cup which would be run differently.
I don’t think it tells us anything new vis-Ã -vis any possible Gold Cup clash with Kauto Star.
Personally I will start worrying about who is the better horse when or, more importantly, if such a clash takes place. I see no point in expending any energy on thinking about hypothetical situations, especially three months ahead of any potential race.
They just need to set their stall out from the start of the Gold Cup and make it a real test. That will play to Denman’s strengths and expose any weakness in Kauto Star’s stamina.
It would certainly maximise Denman’s chances of beating Kauto Star but it is also a scenario that would suit Exotic Dancer. McCoy seems certain to revert to the exaggerated waiting tactics which have suited Exotic Dancer so well in the past and we know how well he goes at Cheltenham. I think it’s a three-horse race and Exotic Dancer is well overpriced if there’s going to be a strong pace.
They just need to set their stall out from the start of the Gold Cup and make it a real test. That will play to Denman’s strengths and expose any weakness in Kauto Star’s stamina.
It would certainly maximise Denman’s chances of beating Kauto Star but it is also a scenario that would suit Exotic Dancer. McCoy seems certain to revert to the exaggerated waiting tactics which have suited Exotic Dancer so well in the past and we know how well he goes at Cheltenham. I think it’s a three-horse race and Exotic Dancer is well overpriced if there’s going to be a strong pace.
Agree with you there. Think I’m going to have a few quid on exotic Dancer now. The front two could race to beat each other and then an outsider could steal it and who better than ED.
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