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EC
The vast majority of people go raing for a night/day out not because the favs come in at 32% instead of 28%.
Prejudice against AW is maybe a reason that kempton crowds have not been as big as expected.whether this is right or wrong is a different matter.
The bottom line is that the place currently has little public appeal and is disconnected from all possible sources of racegoer:-<br>- the professional punter<br>-avid amateur racegoer<br>-corporate guest<br>- those attracted by "theme nights"<br>- the neck the beers, racing bingo element<br>Incidentally someone supported my view that the course is too far away for people to either see properly or get any atmosphere in a letter published in yesterday’s RP
Just read that article featuring Mordin from February.
Interesting that he criticises Polytrack yet praises something called Tapeta as a much more ‘punter-friendly’ alternative. Tapeta has been developed by trainer Michael Dickinson, who I am sure is not related to the Michael Dickinson who gives the following glowing review on the back of Mordins Winning Without Thinking,
one of the best analysts of horse racing I’ve come across. His insights about horses I train have been very helpful
It may be that Polytrack, by producing a more consistent surface, removes a lot of the biases and angles that people used to make a profit on the AW previously. In that sense, finding winners may be harder since fewer horses in each race are hampered by the draw or the need to avoid kickback.
But surely the lessons from this forum and elsewhere are that there are a hundred and one different approaches and for every person who throws their hands up in despair because their old methods no longer work, there will be many more who will get on with finding a way to make the new surface pay, indeed, I’m sure there are people doing that right now.
If it is the contention that the lower down the class structure you go, there is more corruption (of the race-fixing kind), then that would be a different matter. But that would surely apply across all surfaces and is not intrinsic to polytrack racing.
Mordin’s book on systems bangs on about the need to keep finding new angles, not to believe the same methods will work for ever. Perhaps he has forgotten that.
It is also interesting to note that many American punters are criticising Polytrack for the opposite reason, that it makes finding winners too easy. Andy Beyer has said the following:
But if the Polytrack advocates prevail, and all racetracks are basically the same, the game will lose many of its subtleties. It might suffer the same fate as harness racing — becoming too understandable and predictable, producing too many small payoffs, driving gamblers to other activities that offer more challenge and better opportunities for profit. Though the practicality and safety of synthetic surfaces may make them irresistible, a sport filled with Polytrack sounds boringly homogenized.
(Edited by Aranalde at 1:12 pm on July 27, 2006)
I think Drone may be right, that odds setters haven’t quite got to grips with the Polytrack. In which case, this is surely an opportunity. The relatively poor record of SP favourites is a good thing, surely, if you are attempting to beat the market.
hey folks some quality replies here , but for goodness sake lets face the truth , Kempton is a dog track , its prime audience  are mostly six packers (lets get p**s
ed and damn the racing ), its main aim is to provide  racing for the bookies , who pay a nice sum for the dross , betting shop fodder must be catered for , so romford , crayford , monmore , kempton , are all the same , its just another betting opportunity (he he )to slowly drip away the punters dosh and keep the shareholders happy , so as long as racing maintains this policy , it will eventually drive casual race goers and the hardened loyal existing followers awayAw is awash with dross , this is just more of it
<br>Ricky
Quote: from clivex on 12:28 pm on July 25, 2006[br]Agree RD
one other point is that a lot of this is based on alst wednesday. kempton was in the hottest part of the country and believe me, that day, no one in that area felt fit to do anything…
<br>
<br>It has been breaking the thermometer at most tracks in the last couple of weeks. Clearly Cartmel last Thursday was going to be rammed, because it always is, but Uttoxeter on the same day as your Kempton meeting was extremely well attended in spite of some unremittingly average fare.
gc<br>
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
Quote: from Maxilon 5 on 8:29 pm on July 25, 2006[br]Related to this discussion, does anyone have any figures on whether Towcester’s decision was financially succesful? I understand they’ve started charging again. <br>
<br>There was brief toying with the idea of charging a fiver when racing resumed there in the autumn, but the last I heard that has been shelved again.
I’d pay a fiver – and then some – to go to Towcester any of the year, frankly. Terrific course.
gc<br>
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
Quote: from Aranalde on 12:56 pm on July 27, 2006[br]Just read that article featuring Mordin from February.
Tapeta has been developed by trainer Michael Dickinson , who I am sure is not related to the Michael Dickinson whogives the following glowing review on the back of Mordins Winning Without Thinking,
Tapeta is the brain child of the very same M Dickinson who saddled the first 5 home in the Gold Cup, i believe his wife runs the company
<br>http://www.tapeta.com/track.html
(Edited by empty wallet at 1:04 am on July 28, 2006)
<br>Ricky,
You keep saying ‘AW is dross’, but you still fail to offer a definition of either ‘dross’ or ‘decent racing’.
Hard to debate with someone who just keeps shouting the same slogan.
AP<br>
Good luck to Aranalde… :cool:
It is possible to make a profit backing on AW racing…. I must admit though to finding Kempton very very difficult so far….. I’m sure it’s just a matter of time before things settle down….
Although my blog listed below hasn’t been updated for ages (due to time/work commitments) I have produced a very decent profit per point on the AW over the winter.
(Edited by Sailing Shoes at 8:49 am on July 28, 2006)
Quote: from Black_Sam_Bellamy on 10:54 pm on July 27, 2006[br]If it’s down to the quality (or lack of it) of the racing, then why do so many people go to Cartmel ? The cards are garbage, year after year. <br>
Steady on old chap, one man’s garbage is another’s gold.
Which is why these endless debates as to what constitutes ‘dross’ are so pointless.
I think Synchronised Swimming and Beach Volleyball are dross but I daresay some live and breathe them.
Each to their own.
Quote: from stav on 12:30 am on July 28, 2006[br]
The main problem is the way the elasticated surface lessens energy distribution, which results in races being run in a totally different way than on turf or fibresand. Polytrack is often compared to firm ground but it just does not have the same effect – horses preserve energy no matter what pace the race is run at, which results in ‘class’ telling a whole lot less than on other surfaces – hence the far more frequent occurrence of bunch finishes than usual. Obviously this means finding solid betting propositions is tricky to say the least.
Speed figures are all but worthless on this surface, in fact I’d go so far as to say a fast clocking is a negative for future runs on Polytrack.<br>
Interesting stuff.
As Aranalde has hinted a less efficient market should mean an edge is possible for those prepared to put in the work, or as the economists would have it the market moving from weak-form efficient towards weak-form inefficient (I think).
But maybe you’re right in that polytrack is just too ‘fair’: negating the range of abilities on show in a race to some extent, hence rendering historical form and time performances less valid.
Interesting Stav,
My view of Lingfield was that stamina is at a premium and I had a good angle of backing horses who had won over a furlong longer than the race on Polytrack….
<br>Having said that most of my bets are 5 and 6 furlong races – where a good pace is guarenteed, so maybe it was just something built into the races I looked for…. ;)
<br>But I would safely ignore a 5 furlong runner over 6 furlong irrevalent of pace….
(Edited by Sailing Shoes at 9:41 am on July 28, 2006)
"it is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent; it is the one that is most adaptable to change."  (Charles Darwin)
Lets face facts, All-Weather is here to stay and its relentless march into the betting calendar will continue as more and more courses open. I am not defending A/W racing over turf but we do have choices. Embrace this form of racing or ignore it completely! To be honest in today’s environment of fixture congestion between racecourses and the dilution of quality horses in general we are not going to be offered betting opportunities that make our life easy as punters
I side with Aranalde comments above (Posted on 1:05 pm on July 27, 2006) … … as punters we need to evolve and this forum presents the perfect opportunity to openly challenge conventional wisdom and share ideas on how we can solve the conundrum presented to us on the so called “dog tracksâ€ÂÂ
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