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Hell’s bells!!!
£100 bank and first bet £20!! That’s much too high OFO. It only gives you 5 bets at level stakes, and if your 1st bet is 20 quid on a progressive staking plan your bank will soon go.
Many people would be saying 5% at most for level stakes and if you are intent on trying progressive staking I suspect a start of 2% would be more appropriate.
Regards
Snow
Very sound advice, snowman. 20% of a bank per bet is ruinous. I don’t think people realise how often losing runs can occur, even when backing short prices.
For even money chances, The probability of a losing run of 5 bets(i.e. enough to destroy the 20% of the bank bets) is
0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5 = 0.03 or 3% (1 in 33)
In other words, if you had a bet every day on an even money chance, on average once every 33 days you would be embarking on a run that would wipe you out if you bet 20% of your bank every bet.
If you only risk 10% of your bank, the probability falls to about 0.0009 or about 0.1 cent(1 in 1000), so that on average you should only get cleaned out about once every three years. You might go on much longer, but you could be starting that losing sequence today…. you never know.
To effectively use a staking plan as shown above is to tie it in with a top bank .. that means add the total points values together and then divide the bank by the total number of points .. each bet is then whatever multiple your are currently standing at. This method is known as a staking ladder.
If you don’t tie it into a top bank you will be staking into eternity.
Hi carlisle,
That would be great going to have my proper first day using the method today. Shall I’ll PM you my email address.
plenty of winners within my shortlists today, time to re-evaluate and see where I went wrong
Yep everything is working ok.
For a typical race would you complete the sheet for every runner and then select the top 5/6 from the figures? Once this has been completed would you then test these 5/6 against other factors GDC etc as well as the information about winning at the class/distance?
Incidentally when you rate the horse in your key trend ss what does RPT =128 mean and do you only use 9 and 1 as values.
Hope this makes sense?
Hi 1Fout
no it didn’t, but strangely I do know what you mean.
I think if a horse has a good score and also has good gdc form then it’s worth careful consideration.
I have to ab. the column headings in the Key Trends printout………
RPR +128, means a Racing Post Rating bigger than 128.9pts & 1pt is just the way it worked out for this race, it could have been
8pts & 2pts or 7pts & 3pts etc… It’s geared around the 10 year trends.byefrom
carlisleps I will post some visuals………
http://www.badongo.com/pic/799973
http://www.badongo.com/pic/970824after a poor first few days betting had a couple of winners today and the place pot.
Big thanks to Carlisle
Hi 1Fout
thanks, the good thing about the basic VDW printout is that it gives you something to kick against. Your shortlist approach is a good one. Take the top 3 or 4, (in the VDW,(also within 5/6 of betting), then study their going distance & course form. You might spot a nice priced selection.
I know it’s a lot of work but if it was easy there wouldn’t be any bookies, and Artemis would be rich.
LATEST NEWS……..
I am currently working on a new batch of psychological glue.byefrom
carlisleCertainly paid out a nice winner with Wake up Maggie today. Going to try and develop it and maybe get a book on how to do the formulas on excel.
Glad to hear it OFO 
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