The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Lay system tracking

Home Forums Tipping and Research Daily Lays And Plays Lay system tracking

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 16 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #2644
    3rdeye
    Member
    • Total Posts 30

    I have been working on systems the last 2 years and have a pretty darn good thing going, except that I live in the US and can’t bet on the exchanges.  As of now, these selections are going to waste, so I thought that I would post them so at least someone can benefit from them.  Whether the selections are bet or not depends on two criteria, their SP and whether they are a favorite or not.  If they don’t meet the criteria, then don’t bet them.  I will keep a running track of how the selections do.  These are all to lay.

    (Edited by 3rdeye at 3:52 am on April 13, 2007)

    #71339
    3rdeye
    Member
    • Total Posts 30

    Day 1<br>

    13 Apr 2007

    SP>=2.5 (FAVORITE) AINT 4.55 LACDOUDAL<br>SP>=4 SP<=8 (NOT FAV) FOLK 3.55 NICOMEDIA<br>SP>=4 SP<=8 (NOT FAV) FOLK 5.05 ENTHUSIUS<br>SP>=5 SP<=12 (NOT FAV) AINT 4.55 LACDOUDAL

    So<br>1.  Lacdoudal is a bet if it is a Favorite and SP odds are greater than or equal to 2.5.<br>2.  Lacdoudal is also a bet if it is a non-favorite, and the SP is greater than or equal to 5 and less than or equal to 12.  If the exchange price is much higher than 12, consider passing.<br>3.  Nicomedia is a bet if it is a non-favorite and the SP is greater than or equal to 4, but less than or equal to 8.  The same with Enthusius.  Get the idea?  

    <br>

    (Edited by 3rdeye at 3:49 am on April 13, 2007)

    #71340
    3rdeye
    Member
    • Total Posts 30

    Well, off to a lucky start, not bad for a Friday the 13th.  All three selections did not win their race.

    Day total: +3<br>Grand total: +3

    Day two

    14 Apr 2007

    SP>=2.5 FAV AINT 5.00 BOLD FIRE<br>SP>=2.5 SP<=7 NOT FAV NEWC 3.05 SHAPE UP<br>SP>=4 FAV CHEP 2.25 DAVID’S SYMPHONY<br>SP>=4 FAV CHEP 4.50 SPANCHIL HILL<br>SP>=4 SP<=8 NOT FAV NEWC 4.30 ANNE BRONTE– <br>SP>=5 SP<=12 NOT FAV CHEP 4.50 SPANCHIL HILL

    By the way, I have been averaging (on Paper) 30 betting points a month and a little over 91% strike rate ( the horse looses) and a loss rate of under 9% (the horse wins).  I might have to leave the US to bet legally, its been going so well or find a honest partner overseas and act as an advisor.  Until then, enjoy the free selections.  They won’t all win, but in the long run they will do well.  I will post for at least a month regardless of my betting circumstances.  Enjoy.

    (Edited by 3rdeye at 2:39 am on April 14, 2007)<br>

    (Edited by 3rdeye at 2:46 am on April 14, 2007)

    #71341
    3rdeye
    Member
    • Total Posts 30

    Correction, Nicomedia was not a bet yesterday, the SP odds were below the betting range, I was a little tired when I posted.  

    Yesterdays total +2<br>Grand total +2

    #71342
    3rdeye
    Member
    • Total Posts 30

    Suday selections<br>Day three

    SP>=2.5 SP<=7 NOT FAV KELS 3.30 SAIF SAREEA<br>SP>=3.25 SP<=8 NOT FAV WORC 4.10 MY ROSIE RIBBONS<br>SP>=5 SP<=12 NOT FAV KELS 4.00 YOUR A GASSMAN<br>SP>=5 SP<=12 NOT FAV WORC 2.10 PICACHO<br>SP>=4 FAV MARK 2.20 BLANDFORD FLYER<br>SP>=4 FAV WORC 3.40 ROMNEY MARSH<br>SP>=4 FAV WORC 4.10 MY ROSIE RIBBONS

    I have won the last seventeen in a row, so a loss may be coming up, but I won fifty in a row recently, so you never know, that’s racing!:cool:

    #71344
    islander7
    Member
    • Total Posts 7

    Hi there.   I am keeping a check on your lay selections.<br>Looks interesting so far.   If you can regularly get 91%<br>wins [ losers] you are certainly on to a good thing if you can benefit from it.<br>Thanks and please keep posting.<br>I do occasional lays but with not quite so much success.

    #71345
    3rdeye
    Member
    • Total Posts 30

    Hi Islander7- Yes, do keep track and post if you see any errors.  I am fairly confident that my system will continue to be in the profit, or I wouldn’t be posting.  I wish I had started betting five months ago, but I am playing it safe for now and I gain more confidence of course with each month.  Over the last five years historically, only one month did not show a profit, it broke even for the month.  I just wish I had more selections per day, but I am grateful for what I have.

    Only one selection yesterday qualified, the horse lost, so the lay bet won.  I havn’t checked today’s results yet, just hoping for the best and keeping the long term perspective in mind (very important).

    As of day two, total profit +3.

    3 winning lay bets out of 3.

    Note: If the SP is higher than the range stipulated, betting those will probably show a profit, but not as much as if you stuck with the SP range given.  I try to keep the SP upper limits low, so that the exchange rates will be close enough to the SP to show a profit.

    (Edited by 3rdeye at 4:11 pm on April 15, 2007)

    #71346
    3rdeye
    Member
    • Total Posts 30

    16 Apr 2007

    SP<=8 NOT FAV WIND 4.15 EFISTORM<br>SP>=2 SP<=7.5 NOT FAV WIND 3.05 DR MCFAB<br>SP>=3.25 SP<=8 NOT FAV WETH 3.25 KIDITHOU<br>SP>=5 SP<=12 NOT FAV WETH 4.00 DOLMUR

    There were three qualifiers, one of which won the race, for an SP of 7-2, the other two horses lost the race.  As the SP is low, I will assume that the betting exchange price was about the same.  That brings the total to +1.5 pts profit.  Not earth shattering, I know, but I am ahead by 19 pts this month (on paper), so I can’t really complain.  The selections that have not been in the SP range have been doing well, but I havn’t done any stats on that yet, so I am ignoring that fact.  The gains can be slow, but as long as its relatively steady, i’m satisfied.<br>

    #71347
    3rdeye
    Member
    • Total Posts 30

    <br>April 17

    SP>=1 SP<=10 NOT FAV EXET 3.40 RED SOCIETY<br>SP>=1 SP<=10 NOT FAV EXET 4.10 COLLEGE ACE<br>SP>=2.5 FAV WARW 3.00 BOLD MINSTREL<br>SP>=4 FAV WARW 4.30 FREGATE ISLAND

    Unfortunately there was a loss at an SP of 7-1 today, I will update the count tomorrow.  I must admit it’s not fun to loose when you’re posting, but I haven’t made anyone any promises, so remember to bet with caution if you are following this thread and remember, they do loose at times and this is gambling which means their is variety in the outcomes.

    #71348
    3rdeye
    Member
    • Total Posts 30

    18 Apr 2007

    18 Apr 2007

    SP>=2.5 FAV BEVE 3.20 DESERT COMMANDER<br>SP>=2.5 FAV BEVE 4.30 TORRENS<br>SP>=2.5 FAV BEVE 5.05 EAGER IGOR<br>SP>=2.5 FAV BEVE 5.40 DEE CEE ELLE<br>SP>=3 SP<=12 NOT FAV CHEL 2.55 MARTHA’S KINSMAN

    (Edited by 3rdeye at 1:59 am on April 18, 2007)

    #71349
    islander7
    Member
    • Total Posts 7

    Hi.  I have noticed 2 of your lays that corresponded to my selections so far.  Both were in our favour.   I am able to watch them run race by race in real time so if you have any questions about a race i will try and help.   The angle i am personally interested in at the moment are lay/bet opportunities.     In other words lay early in the day a horse which i think will increase in price near the race time and then back it.   As long as this is achieved with the right staking a profit is gained before the race is even run.    I go green as they say.

    #71350
    3rdeye
    Member
    • Total Posts 30

    Hi Islander 7 – Thanks for your offer to answer my questions, I of course can’t watch the race, I just wait for the results.  My thoughts on your system are this.  It would be great of course if you had a crystal ball and would know which horses would go up in price, however, since you don’t, there are factors that you should consider when betting that way because:

    First you make the lay bet.  If the price goes up, you make a profit on it.  But if it doesn’t go up and you don’t get matched for a profit and if the horse wins, then you take a hit.  So, there are factors to consider.

    1.  How often does it happen that you do not get matched at a higher price for a profit, or in other words, how often does the price not go up and your lay bet is left exposed to a potential loss (the horse winning-god these terms get confusing when you talk about laying the horse).<br>2.  What is the ‘average’ amount of the difference between the lay and the back.  Or in other words, how much money are you actually making when you are successful in your strategy.  On hundred dollar lay bets, if on average when you are successful you only make 5 dollars, then you have to win a lot of these bets to make up for one time your horse’s price does not go up and the horse wins and you have to pay out.  If the price does not go up, rather than leaving yourself exposed to paying out if the lay bet loses, you might want to back it for a loss if it will be a small one and hope that you will make up for the loss when your stategy is successful and the prices go up.

    3.  Ideally, you would want to have a system that is in profit on straight lay betting.  That way if the horse’s price does not go up and you can’t get a profitable back bet in, no worries, because your lay bets are winning in the long run anyway, unless the horse whose prices  do not rise are winning significantly more frequently than the horses whose prices rise towards the end of the day.  If you follow my drift.

    I have thought about your system before, obviously.  The only thing that I don’t really like about it is that, generally, the price does not rise very high, and so you are putting out a lot of money for small returns percentage wise, so it only takes one time for your bet not to be matched and the horse winning to loose a lot of money relative to the profitable times.  Of course, the up side is that it is great to know that when you are successful in making these bets, you make money no matter the outcome.  

    4.  Of course, I don’t know all the details of your system, and so if the price is rising substantially and often enough that you are making good profits and are successful frequently on these types of bets, then you have a great system going.

    Those are my thoughts on your system.  If you have any questions about my comments, then feel free to ask.  As you can see, I am all about the math in regards to betting and trying to get an edge on my side.  I think betting against an edge is foolish for long term betting, that is why I have put years of efforts into finding the right system, hopefully I have found it.  

    (Edited by 3rdeye at 11:43 pm on April 18, 2007)

    #71351
    3rdeye
    Member
    • Total Posts 30

    SP>=2.5 FAV RIPO 2.45 VALERY BORZOV<br>SP>=2.5 SP<=7 NOT FAV RIPO 2.45 VALERY BORZOV<br>SP>=4 FAV RIPO 5.05 ASHES<br>SP>=5 SP<=12 NOT FAV CHEL 5.50 AIMIGAYLE<br>

    #71353
    islander7
    Member
    • Total Posts 7

    Hi 3rdeye.   Thanks for your comments on my approach.  I also am very mathematical in my betting.<br>It is early days yet to say yet whether i have a long-term winning system or to define frequencies and averages.   I am very selective,  with a clearly defined selection process. There are  fewer bets with my approach than yours.  <br>I have been able to test the straight lay possibility with reference to the Adrian Massey site, which you are probably familiar.    Although it looks as though this would not be viable (comes out about equal – no win/no loss), <br>i think what makes my bets usually go in my favour is that my horse’s form is such that it  usually drifts in price <br>before the race is run.    An advantage i have personally is<br> that if  the horse is being backed i can get out early, hopefully only with a small deficit should the horse eventually win.    If on the other hand the price is going out i can decide when it is best to take the profit.

    I note you have been successful the last 2 days with your approach and, as you say seems to steadily work.

    #71354
    3rdeye
    Member
    • Total Posts 30

    20 Apr 2007

    SP>=2.5 SP<=7 NOT FAV THIR 2.30 ESPEJO<br>SP>=4 FAV NEWB 2.10 ESCAPE ROUTE<br>SP>=4 FAV NEWB 2.40 MALTESE FALCON<br>SP>=5 SP<=12 NOT FAV AYR 5.05 SHA BIHAN<br>

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 16 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.