December 25, 2006 at 17:31 #608cormack15Keymaster
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Those following the ‘on Target Trends’ thread will know that a few of us are working on a new trend analysis approach.
Still some way to go on this, although our stats expert Ken1 is currently beavering away collating, extrapolating and generally exasperating, but, in the course of pulling together the King George data, I’ve done some basic stuff on the race.
Note that this stuff is only me doodling with the data, so to speak, as we’re not ready with the heavyweight stuff (including our very own ‘trend ratings’) as yet!!!
Right. Based on the last ten renewals and I looked at all 92 runners.
<br>Key stats –
90% of winners had won last time out. Only 38% of total runners had done so. (So from this sample of 38% of the runners we had 90% of the winners). (+87.1% profit against turnover backing all such qualified runners)
Last time out Racing Post rating of 157 and higher won all ten renewals (100%) from only 52% of the runners. (+41.4% POT)
80% of the winners had competed in a Grade 1 or 2 race last time from 44% of the runners. (+28% POT)
70% of the winners started at 7/2 or lower from only 20% of the runners (+21.5% POT)
Market leaders have dominated (favourites have a 50% strike rate).
These seem the key trends and they all lead us to one horse – Kauto Star, with Racing Demon next best.<br>These two are the only ones who really seem to figure from a trends viewpoint (at least from my rough and ready trends viewpoint.
Monet’s Garden will become the horse with the lowest RP Rating last time out if he wins (from last ten year sample only of course). Also his race last time would be the lowest grade of event contested LTO by a winner. He appears much too short in the market given his profile and should be taken on.<br><br>Racing Demon, on the other hand, has plenty stats in his favour and a forecast involving him finishing runner up to Kauto Star may be the bet, given the prohibitive odds available about the fav.December 26, 2006 at 12:43 #34375AnonymousInactive
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Corm<br> I arrived at the same conclusion, albeit by a different route, and have KS to win comfortably from Racing Demon.<br>Let’s hope we’re both right!:cool:December 26, 2006 at 13:57 #34376Racing DailyParticipant
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I don’t think you need stats here, personally. KS will win, Monkeyhostin for the forecast.December 26, 2006 at 16:48 #34377yeatsParticipant
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cormack15, have you any stats that tell you how successful stats like that are at predicting the future or are they just good at telling you what happened in the past?December 26, 2006 at 17:30 #34378cormack15Keymaster
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Yeats – they are 100% accurate at telling you what has happened in the past!
As for the future – I’ve used trends very successfully in the past and they are an important tool for many of the established races where horses with similar profiles often do well/badly year after year. One or two of us are working towards a more scientific stats based approach and, as we work towards that, I’ll post thoughts/selections in the trends section so we’ll find out about how good they are at predicting the future in due course.
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