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Interesting analysis, partly agree with Ruby, partly disagree.
The sectionals certainly prove they didn’t go as fast from the third fence to the finishing line on the first circuit… But it also proved Il Est Francais went better / optimal / level fractions throughout than they did in the King George. Something that in itself leads to a faster overall time.
In the King George the three 13 second furlongs just before, around and after the home turn which (figuratively speaking) “closed” on Il Est Francais who was himself still going at a fast pace. ie Closing on a horse that is himself going a bloody good pace is harder than closing on one who’s had enough / slowing. The (following) 15.42 and 16.05 seconds final two furlongs also imo prove it is wrong to say Bravemansgame and Allaho did not pay for that injection of pace. ie Without the three consecutive 13 second furlongs am sure they’d both have run the final two furlongs quite a bit faster. So in that respect they did “get racing too soon”…
However, it may also be true to say that part (or even “most”) of the reason an injection of pace had such a negative impact on both Allaho and Bravemansgame was neither were at their best. Therefore struggling to maintain the pace and as a result let in Hewick. On form ratings it was not a good King George.
One thing is for sure though…
Il Est Francais is some novice.
Value Is EverythingDo agree that the 2nd and 3rd have underperformed, for BMG that has been a pattern for his entire season so far as he has been a long way of last year’s form and I still think that he would have been much better served going straight to Kempton after Wetherby.
With regards to Allaho, this was way off his Ryanair and Punchestown Gold Cup form so I am going to reserve judgement on him as you could argue that his comeback run in deseperate ground after a long lay off could have taken the edge of him for this run – in the past he has put in the odd below par effort before bouncing back, so Cheltenham will likely tell us if he can still hit those lofty height or whether the injury has meant he has lost a step or two now.
Fair play to Hewick who has taken full advantage of the circumstances and you have to give him full credit for his dogged perseverance because he was struggling to stay with them from a very long way out and many other horses would have called it a day long before he managed to finally get involved in the race.
I don’t think he truly is a full on G1 horse when the major players show up with their ‘A’ games but you have to be in it to win it and they were and took full advantage. While I don’t think even on quicker ground he could win a Gold Cup, the National on decent ground may be a different matter and I think he could well be in the mix if he happened to get those conditions.
The King George was a write off this year with what happened in the closing stages. I’ll take race times and time comparisons with a pinch of salt. (I do anyway particularly with novices who can mature at different rates). I’d rather just go with my eyes and my gut. My eyes says the French horse was good. My gut says Gaelic Warrior could also have been good that way round against Hermes Allen.
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